Thread by @TCG_CrisisRisks

Ukraine SITREP 1. There were reports of multiple missile strikes overnight on numerous locations with reports of likely interceptions in some areas, and at least three impacts. Details awaiting verification.

2. At least one missile interception by Ukrainian forces confirmed yesterday, but likely others not yet verified. Two helicopters and a UAV were also confirmed as shot down.

3. A number of Russian Navy missiles were fired onto regions around Odesa late yesterday and again this morning, we believe targeting military radar, comms and ADS locations. Some possible interceptions reported this region.

4. Significant shelling on Kharkiv again overnight with reports Ukrainian forces clashed with Russian units south of the city. Reports of air activity high over the south this morning. Some unverified reports of another Russian unit sighted heading towards Izyum.

5. Russian units in Izyum continue to consolidate defensive positions with units filtering south. Ukrainian forces have fired artillery onto some units and continue to harass other units around the city.

6. The Izyum-Slovyansk front continues to be very active with a number of small offensives and Ukrainian counteroffensives the last 24hrs and controlled areas on the ground are very fluid.

7. Significant fighting overnight around Rubizhne with some large explosions reported.

8. We expect Russian units to consolidate in forward positions and launch larger offensives on towns and cities southeast of Izyum in the coming days, likely with significant artillery and air/missile strikes. Ukrainian forces are consolidating defences in strategic areas here.

9. Reports of explosions Dnipro region this morning, details not verified. Reports Ukrainian forces are conducting much deeper reconnaissance patrols and counteroffensive operations from Dnipro now, including up the Samara region, with no reports of significant Russian activity.

10. Much activity southwest, west and north of Kherson overnight with reports of artillery exchanges and progress by Ukrainian forces. We anticipate Kherson may become contested and could fall back under Ukrainian control in the coming days.

11. However, we also have concerns Russia may somehow escalate the situation from this region with major air/missile strikes, or a false flag distraction. Mykolaiv forces are on high alert.

12. The night was reportedly quieter in most areas of the Donbas, but significant shelling commenced again this morning and air activity is reported.

13. In Mariupol, despite Russian claims, Ukrainian forces are still active in bastions around the port, in the east and the southwest, with Russian bombing and shelling continuing.

14. Despite significant fighting and Russian control points around the city there are credible reports Ukrainian forces have been resupplied here, but we shall not provide operational details on these reports.

15. Russian preparations continue for large offensives in the southeast, including further reinforcements and unit regeneration/amalgamation on the border regions.

16. Whilst there has been significant claims and imagery of destroyed/damaged units and vehicles, intelligence estimates suggest Russia has only lost circa 15% of its committed military capacity since the invasion commenced.

17. There are reports Russian intelligence and corroborators are actively looking to identify weapons movements from the west and repositioned Ukrainian Air Defence Systems.

18. A strong indication these remain a primary target for air/missile strikes, despite the new southeast military focus.

19. We anticipate Russian air/missile strikes will escalate in the coming days with weapons from the west, ADS, critical infrastructure and the political apparatus likely targets.

Ukraine - Sirens this morning Kramatorsk where the railway was attacked yesterday killing more than 50 civilians. Sirens here are not unusual despite it being a major evacuation hub for thousands of civilians.

A lot of unusual Chinese Airforce cargo flights into Serbia overnight. No verification as to why and what for? At least six
Xi'an Y-20s pinging on ADSB Mode S.

Ukraine - Reports of a Russian missile attack on Myrhorod city in the Poltava Oblast this morning causing significant damage and casualties.

Ukraine/Russia: As the west moves weapons east and assists with the training and installation of new Ukrainian integrated Air Defences, (aimed to degrade further Russia’s air/missile attack capability), it will become crucial that -

Cont: - Ukraine shifts to a more offensive posture in the air, with long range strikes into areas Russia currently believes are relatively safe.

The helicopter strike on Belgorod last week was a bold example of such strikes, but standoff air and missile attacks are others, and these (with the right strategic targets), will be critical in diluting the Russian air activity and current military strategy in the southeast.

Ukraine/Russia: Reports still not verified yet that Ukrainian forces have attacked the Russian occupied airfield northwest of Melitopol destroying a number of aircraft. Reports of a coordinated drone/artillery strike after units advanced into the region from the north.

Ukraine - Death toll following Kramatorsk railway missile strike rises to 57