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Mosharraf Zaidi Profile picture
@mosharrafzaidi
Apr 10, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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Some PTI power ⬇️ that merits the thoughtful and deep attention of GHQ, Shahbaz Sharif, and the PPP.

Is ⬆️ real or ⬇️ ?

#Lahore

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More from @mosharrafzaidi

Mosharraf Zaidi Profile picture
May 24, 2023
🧵

Who is selected & who isn’t?

Who was a “project” & who wasn’t?

ZAB, NS & IK were all varying degrees of originally establishment-backed political phenoms. Partisan bickering aside, there is a reason the “dismantling” never works.

Politicians reside in hearts…

👇🏽
So IK will endure in people’s hearts, as NS has endured since 1980s & ZAB has since 1960s.

There’re two aspects of the dismantling of Project IK that are unique & they make the IK conundrum more profound than the challenge faced by the military in previous iterations.

👇🏽
1. Demography.

Here are the approximate 🇵🇰 population numbers by the decade.

1970: 60 million
1980: 80 million
1990: 115 million
2000: 155 million
2010: 195 million
2020: 235 million

Pakistan 2020s = 4 x Pakistan 1970s

Think about this for a moment… 💭

👇🏽
Read 6 tweets
Mosharraf Zaidi Profile picture
May 12, 2023
🧵

One crucial & inescapable challenge for all critics of IK (including 🙋🏽‍♂️) that merits reflection is how deep the support for IK runs across the country, across ethnicities, and frankly, among young people that cannot stand the status quo & those associated with it.

…

⬇️
This is a pretty substantial challenge because without legitimacy there can be no authority.

The facts of how IK successfully dismantled the legitimacy of status quo actors are almost irrelevant.

What is relevant is: does legitimacy remain a contested space today?

⬇️
The real worry for the military, the traditional parties, and those that find IK’s populist tropes distasteful is that it isn’t the constitution, or some boomer’s sense of right and wrong, or even the courts that lend legitimacy in this system in May 2023.

It is… ⬇️
Read 6 tweets
Mosharraf Zaidi Profile picture
Apr 20, 2023
🧵

Should Pakistan's foreign minister attend the SCO foreign ministers' meeting at Goa in early May?

There are four questions that should shape the decision, and if they are considered, whatever decision the government takes will be a solid one.

These questions are...🔽
1. How seriously does Pakistan take the SCO?

Given that this community is one that

* both 🇨🇳 & 🇷🇺take seriously,
* 🇮🇷🇹🇷🇸🇦 all want to join,
* will continue to be important to 🇵🇰's neighborhood &
* 🇵🇰 & 🇮🇳 were welcomed to the SCO together, as equals?

🔽
2. What value does 🇵🇰 bring to SCO?

As a long-term net provider of regional stability & security, Pakistan must reinforce its

* contributions & lessons learnt
* current assessment of regional security (esp terrorism & RATS)
* 🇵🇰's perspective on key future security risks

🔽
Read 6 tweets
Mosharraf Zaidi Profile picture
Mar 19, 2023
🧵

Today’s merger of PML-Z with PTI is a another important data point for those tracking the souring of the love affair between the “establishment” and Imran Khan.

Remember, prior to this, we saw Chaudhry Pervez Elahi formally join PTI.

What does this mean?

⬇️
For starters, the Bajwa-Khan breakup was not a breakup between the “establishment” & Khan.

This is important because from Musharraf onward,

COAS = establishment = COAS.

The Bajwa-Khan breakup is a unique & disruptive schism because the establishment DID NOT follow COAS.

⬇️
Instead, after the VNC, folks usually associated with the establishment essentially followed their new leader, Imran Khan.

Most crucially, the people of the armed forces are seen to largely continue to be supportive of Imran Khan.

Whether this is good or bad doesn’t matter.

⬇️
Read 11 tweets
Mosharraf Zaidi Profile picture
Mar 18, 2023
🧵

Every institution in the country is in free fall.

This is why I keep referring to the current catastrophic convergence of crises as an institutional meltdown.

The situation can be salvaged, but it would be foolish to feign optimism about the short & medium term.

⬇️
There are four crises taking place at the same time.

1. Political
2. Economic
3. Security
4. Constitutional

All four can be tackled—but none can be tackled without collaborative problem solving by Pakistan’s eight most powerful individuals.

Who are these individuals?

⬇️
1. Imran Khan
2. General Munir
3. Nawaz Sharif
4. Justice Bandial
5. Asif Ali Zardari
6. Maulana Fazlur Rehman
7. PM Sharif
8. Justice Isa

Most urgent is to prevent system-wide collapse.

The two immediate threats to the system are the political impasse & potential default.

⬇️
Read 16 tweets
Mosharraf Zaidi Profile picture
Mar 17, 2023
The country is skidding toward a sovereign default and experiencing institutional meltdown, but our boys in khaki are at the frontlines of the most important struggle for our national security: more land for the Pakistan Army.

dawn.com/news/1742652?r…
In a country where the Supreme Court has 52,000 pending cases & where even meetings w MBS of 🇸🇦 don’t lead to the movement of files, a Feb 20 notification leads to a March 8 JV leading to this March 10 letter.

This is speed of light levels of efficiency.

Only for Pakistan Army.
In a country that can’t manage land reform, can’t tax agriculture, can’t attract agricultural investment, can’t manage farm collectives & hasn’t improved farm productivity since the 60s, “Corporate Agriculture Farming”.

By the most capable global farming startup: Pakistan Army.
Read 4 tweets

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