This might help put the conversation around carbon capture in perspective.
In their new study of direct air capture, the IEA proposes a "large and accelerated" scale-up from today's ~0.01 Mt-CO2 / yr rate of capture to ~980 MT-CO2 / yr in 2050.
To put this in perspective, the current rate (~0.01 Mt-CO2/yr) of DAC is about 0.000017% of our current greenhouse gas emissions.
Or, put another way, it absorbs about 5-6 *seconds* of the greenhouse gas emissions we put out every year.
And if we manage to scale this up to the ambitious figure of 980 Mt-CO2/yr by the year 2050 -- which is not at all guaranteed -- it would remove about 1.6% of our current greenhouse gas emissions.
Or, only about 6 *days* of our current annual emissions.
Even if this were to happen, it would be within the error bars of our being able to even measure it in the atmosphere.
There are other ways to remove carbon from the atmosphere, of course. Nature-based solutions (in trees, soils, and oceans) can be used too, but they have other limitations.
Bottom line: don't expect a huge amount of DAC happening anytime soon.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
There are fundamental physical, chemical, and geologic constraints to carbon removal technologies.
While we can still find areas of efficiency gain, the fundamental laws of thermodynamics make it very, very challenging to remove a gas *after* it’s burned. rechargenews.com/energy-transit…
I think we need to do more rigorous analysis of what the fundamental, inviolable physical, chemical, biological, and geologic limits of carbon removal are.
What are the limits to DAC? CCS? Nature-based solutions?
I’m not sure we really know.
Sadly, theoretical economic models and integrated assessment models (which are driving a lot of this conversation) and wishful thinking do not trump is physical laws.
So frustrating. Was visiting my daughter & grandson yesterday, and noticed how their apartment (in brand-new building) was cold & drafty, mainly because the builder failed to install weatherstripping in the windows.
Her heating bill last month was 3x higher than it should be.
This building has over 180 units, and I bet all of them leak like crazy. And each tenant is paying way too much for heating, not to mention the awful effects on emissions and climate.
This is a brand new building, with a good management team. And they seemed surprised, saying no one ever mentioned this to them before.
The craziest thing about climate change is somehow we expect Congress, the White House, and the UN COP process to save the day.
That is *never* going to happen, no matter who’s in charge.
They don’t lead, and they never did. At best, they follow.
When are we going to learn?
The political class has failed us, and is only interested in their own power.
The real leadership on climate change comes from all of us — activists, scientists, writers, business leaders, community leaders, technologists, entrepreneurs, artists, and beyond.
If we leave the fate of the planet up to the US Congress and the United Nations — with corrupt leaders and systems like COP that were designed to fail from day one — then god help us.