Thread by @CrisLeeMaza

This piece is locked, so here's a 🧵with the main points:

Most Latin American leaders are clinging to a neutral position toward Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S.

This approach was popularized by former Chilean foreign minister Jorge Heine, who coined it “active non-alignment.”

https://twitter.com/CrisLeeMaza/status/1513978098101936134

In the days leading up to the invasion of Ukraine, Putin met personally with leaders from Argentina and Brazil.

But even in countries with some vocal support for Russia among the political classes, major internal divisions have become evident in recent weeks.

In Brazil: far-right President Jair Bolsonaro refused to condemn Putin over the war.

But Vice President Hamilton Mourão publicly split with Bolsonaro, applauding the Western support for Ukraine and declaring that Brazil supports Ukraine’s sovereignty.

In Mexico: President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador released a video condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

But lawmakers from Mexico’s ruling party (AMLO's party) formed a Mexico-Russia Friendship Committee and invited the Russian ambassador to attend its inauguration.

In Bolivia: The fight between @evoespueblo and @LuchoXBolivia for control of the MAS party has led to "a more ideological part of the MAS and a more pragmatic part," which is evident in the rhetoric regarding the war in Ukraine.

Chile just elected a young left-wing president, @gabrielboric, who immediately condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

But he’s faced opposition from a member of his governing coalition, the Communist Party, which would like to be more aligned with Nicaragua and Cuba.

Chile's Communist Party condemned war as a way to solve international conflicts. But it also blamed the U.S. and NATO for their ‘provocations,’ both economic and geopolitical."

Russia’s staunchest allies in the region—Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua—have not been as full-throated in their support for the war as Russian leaders may have hoped.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yury Borisov visited all three countries in the days leading up to the invasion.

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has since called U.S. sanctions against Russia a “crime.”

But his government has taken meetings w/U.S. officials to discuss energy security. When push comes to shove, Russia becoming a pariah state opens doors for Venezuelan oil exports.

Much of the response to Russia's war in Ukraine has played out publicly in the United Nations.

Bolivia, Cuba, El Salvador, and Nicaragua abstained from a vote condemning the invasion.

Venezuela could not vote because it has not paid its U.N. member dues.

People I spoke to also made some good points that didn't make it into the article.

For example, @RyanBergPhD said: "There’s no longer any revolutionary ideology in Nicaragua or Cuba or Venezuela. They have devolved, plain and simple, into dictators or kleptocrats or both."

And: "When it comes to U.S. imperialism, that history hasn’t spurred more countries to see what Russia is doing as the same as what the U.S. did in past periods of time in Latin America.

You would think that would lead to more of them condemning the invasion [of Ukraine]."