Will Stancil Profile picture
Apr 13 7 tweets 2 min read
Biden's second-worst demographic - not relative to expectations, but OVERALL - is the highly liberal 18-34 age group. 21% approve. He's 47 points underwater. And yet DC still reflexively assumes moderation is the cure, rather than the cause, of the problem poll.qu.edu/poll-release?r…
Biden's approval among 18-to-34-year-olds is literally lower than Trump's was, in the same Quinnipiac poll in March 2018! Hard to overstate what a shocking failure this is for a Democratic administration.
What official DC cannot seem to grasp is that all the stuff that seems self-evidently correct to them (be boring, focus on dry econ issues, reassure people that the comfortably familiar cast of old white guys is in charge, punch left) now actively antagonizes a huge Dem base bloc
There's an enormous generational split in politics - in this poll, Biden might be -47 with the young but he's actually POSITIVE with people over 65, at 48/46 - but all the voices talking about politics in elite circles come from one side of that split and can barely perceive it
US elites often worry they're in a liberal bubble, and obsess over reaching out to the conservative hinterland. They ARE in a bubble, but on the opposite side than they realize: THEY'RE the status quo moderates, and the groups they're ignoring are the people they think irrelevant
You want to fix Democratic politics? Start listening more to the handful of Dem voices on the other side of this split. They're easy to spot, they stand out, like AOC. Their success seems bizarre to official DC because they're succeeding in groups official DC doesn't perceive.
At the very least deploy some common sense here, Dems. Who better understands voters under 50:

1. People who have used Instagram before, or
2. People who have been national pols since before tape cassettes?

But the entire party is keyed to the instincts of the latter group.

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More from @whstancil

Apr 13
Something people are overlooking about this is the way Jeffries attributes his position to "polls." This is a fundamental, ongoing misconception that is heavily responsible for Dems' profound political lameness: issue polling can't make these kinds of decisions for you!
Because election polls are reasonably good at predicting elections, people assume that issue polls are equivalently reliable at predicting political behavior. But they aren't, at all! It's a totally different animal!
Election polls can replicate the exact choice voters will make in the ballot booth. No interpretation is necessary - if your respondents reflect the population, then their responses will probably reflect the election result. You don't need to know WHY they're voting as they do.
Read 10 tweets
Apr 13
How many times do Democrats have to learn?!?

YOU CAN’T AVOID THE CULTURE WAR, YOU HAVE TO WIN IT
The “pocketbook issue” obsession is pure conflict avoidance. Democrats like to say they’re focusing on pocketbook issues because those issues are dull and relatively uncharged. Of course, ask them to actually make big economic reforms and it’s just radio silence
Not to mention that one of the, like, two notable features of the Biden admin is that its “pocketbook issue” law FAILED. Why would Dems campaign on their own dismal, humiliating failure???
Read 6 tweets
Apr 12
[citation needed]
How has this “been apparent”??? And why is a certain kind of media dude so absolutely committed to spreading this idea?
Right. Undoubtedly people see higher prices. But even high inflation doesn’t exactly smack you in the face day-to-day - there may be a vague sense prices are up but most people probably can’t tell you what bread cost a year ago. You need a narrative to contextualize those changes
Read 6 tweets
Apr 12
I think this is strange framing from @AaronBlake. The current debate is whether people are accurately getting economic signals from daily life or getting false signals from media. This story appears to implicitly concede people are mostly following media washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/…
But this comes as part of an article that is framed as a DEFENSE of media and seems to push back against people who say the public is misperceiving the economy.
So I guess the argument is that people are, indeed, learning about the economy from media - and in fact, economic information from media is often inaccurate. But that this is okay, because media has historically been inaccurate about the economy?
Read 6 tweets
Apr 11
yes there can be no possible explanation for a democrat losing a GOP wave election in PA except for philadelphia mask mandates seven months prior, you're definitely not a bizarre obsessive with a fixation
imagine being this brain-poisoned by having to sporadically wear a mask in a global pandemic
"Fabricated polls" - this guy is a right-wing conspiracy theorist and it's an absolute embarrassment that he has the following he does
Read 4 tweets
Apr 11
For me, this raises the question "have political scientists ever met a human before"
I understand the appeal of thinking that people are sorted into ideological buckets and that you can accumulate a majority for yourself by collecting enough buckets to hit 50%+1 but how can anyone observe the past few years and without suspecting this is NOT HOW ELECTIONS WORK
Groups of voters aren't, like, armies with rigid affiliations that can be united in the field to defeat common foes. You can't just force the liberals and moderates together to fight the far right. People choose which flag to stand under.
Read 5 tweets

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