Farzad Mostashari Profile picture
Apr 14, 2022 30 tweets 9 min read Read on X
1/ After 2 years of working hard to avoid getting-- and spreading-- COVID, the pandemic finally caught up with my family.

I thought I would share some of the things I learned along the way. Image
2/ *Infection*
Our behavior didn't change, but the virus did. As @ScottGottliebMD has noted- it sure seems like the most recent BA2 surge is increasingly hitting the remaining uninfected, who've been limiting social interactions, social distancing, masking
3/ My elderly parents have been essentially home-bound for the past 2 years, with very limited number of contacts.

We still don't know exactly how my dad got it. 🤷‍♀️

But I am so grateful that we delayed his infection until he had a chance to get vaccinated and boosted 🙏
4/ *Symptoms*
We had what you would expect- initial chills, bodyaches, then runny nose

My dad had a cough very early, I had it later, but quite persistent (I still have it 3 weeks later)

A symptom I didn't expect was wheezing. I didn't measure peak flows but would have been bad
5/ I was basically fine after day 2. (53 yo)

My dad (86 yo) didn't need to be hospitalized but he got pretty sick for a while.

Without good care at home, and certainly without the vaccine and booster and therapeutics (more on this) I could easily have imagined a bad outcome.
6/ *Diagnosis*
PCR is more sensitive early on in the course- but delays in reporting make it useless compared to rapid antigen.

I got a pharmacy drive-thru PCR test (by @verilylifesci), but it took 3 days for the results to come back positive

Rapid antigen test + next day
7/ I was trying to get confirmatory PCR test for my dad, but only same-day service was a for-profiteering place that charged $250

I actually ended up buying a @CueHealth 15 minute home PCR machine ($70 a cartridge)- which is an amazing device, but ended up not mattering Image
8/ *Therapeutics
I am SO GLAD for science, and that we delayed his infection until Paxlovid was widely available.

Pharmacies all had it in stock

But getting a prescription from his academic medical center PCP quickly was beyond my abilities

Portal messages, answering system 👿
9/ Here's the hack- schedule a virtual urgent care visit

it's faster than getting a message to the PCP who knows him best. The urgent care nurse ran through checklist, and quickly agreed he qualified

One problem- they want a recent (last 6 mos) renal function test for dosing
10/ I ended up convincing them that his most recent test (9 mons ago) already showed moderate renal impairment, so let's just go with the renal dosing already, and get the pills started today.

The instructions are a bit hard to follow- so they put a sticker on the blister pack Image
11/ make sure you take it correctly!

You have to "take one of each color" pill, but the color on the back can confuse things-

I heard of one person whose family gave them 2 ritonavir tabs in the morning, and 2 nirmatrevlir tabs at night

That ... won't work
12/ Treatment option #2- Monoclonal Antibodies

My mom got COVID next.

My goal was to get her monoclonals quickly-

"Bebtelovimab should be used as the monoclonal antibody of choice in regions where BA.2 is the dominant subvariant if preferred therapies are not feasible"
13/ Once again, even though there isn't *that much* supply, there's no shortage!

Why?

You have to know how to navigate the system to get it.

Again, forget about calling your PCP office to arrange for it, even if they are within one of the blessed academic institutions Image
14/ The concept of "urgent primary care" is a non-starter in normie medicine, it seems

The patient portal forces you to choose "non-urgent medical question"

the call line takes a message, but tells you it could take 24-48 hrs to get a response.

"Go to the Emergency Room" sucks
15/ NB- I'm CEO of @AledadeACO and our 1,000+ independent primary care practices coach their patients "Call us 1st!" - it's easy to see how that would translate into 14% fewer ED visits, 15% lower hospitalizations, and a lot less suffering.

But that's not most of the world
16/ so... I called the MA Dept Public Health at the minute they opened on 8 am Monday morning, and got a reservation for a Monoclonal Ab infusion that day at 2 pm.

Not charge. They can help with wheelchairs/ transportation.

But you have to know how to work the system Image
17/ My mom's response to the mAb was impressively fast.

I went from pretty worried about her clinically to completely at ease within 24 hours.

I think they are massively underused right now.

If you have an elderly/ at risk loved one with COVID infection, I'd try to get it.
18/ *Leaving Isolation

The CDC advice to leave isolation after 5 days without requiring negative rapid antigen test is ... unsupported by the science IMO

My dad was still antigen+ (infectious) until Day 8. Should he have returned home to sleep next to my 83yo mom on Day 5?

No Image
19/ I still feel bad that I wasn't even more careful to leave a longer buffer

My mom tested positive a week after my dad came home when he turned antigen negative

We can't be sure where she got it from, but it sure seems likely that it was residual shedding from my dad.
20/ I was still antigen positive on day 5

I was still antigen + on Day 10, so I drove home 10 hours instead of flying on commercial (OK per CDC)

I isolated & masked & ventilated around my household members until I turned negative... on Day 15!

Thankful I didn't give it to them Image
21/ It's impressive when you see a really strong positive antigen test

The Test stripe turns positive almost instantly as the fluid hits it

You can see here (on Day 12) how positive the test is within seconds-so quickly that the fluid hasn't even had a chance to hit the Control Image
22/ It's nuts how misunderstood this is, even by medical professionals and institutions who should know better.

PCR tests will stay positive long after you are no longer infectious.

THAT'S NOT TRUE FOR RAPID ANTIGEN TESTS.

If you're antigen positive, assume you're infectious
23/ Here is wrong advice from @KPMemberService

I generally think Kaiser-Permanente has excellent evidence-based, data-driven care (which is why I'm a member)

But I've been frankly disappointed with their COVID response in proactive vaccine distribution, therapeutics, or this👇 Image
24/ We are all fine, thanks to vaccines (and my ability to work the system to get my parents therapeutics right away)

But it shouldn't be this hard.

Renal tests before Paxlovid is a problem.
Inability to reach PCPs urgently is terrible,
Leaving isolation without - Ag is nuts
25/ Special thanks to all my friends and experts who helped guide me and comfort us during this time, but especially @bijans and @FranklinHuang
26/ I forgot to add- *Side Effects

Monoclonal had zero side effects

Paxlovid has very unpleasant bitter/metallic taste and stomach cramps/ diarrhea

(be careful of elderly people risk of falls if rushing to bathroom while weakened, consider walker use)
27/ *Costs

My parents have Medicare and supplemental insurance, and we could certainly afford tests or treatments, but very grateful that the medications and antibody infusion are free- paid for by the government to remove financial barriers

+They got 8 free rapid antigen tests
28/ *note/context

They love their PCP, who is smart, hard working, and cares a lot for them

It's just that her organization has made a conscious decision to make it hard for patients to reach her and communicate with her directly

It's more "efficient" fee-for-service that way
29/ *Care @home

1) managing meds. Including decisions re taking/not taking regular meds (eg drug interaction between Paxlovid & statins)

2) monitoring vitals, symptom trends (like difficulty breathing) to decide if need to go to ER

3) ensuring food/water intake

4) falls prev
30/ the excellent @bijans has made a terrific guide that summarizes key steps to navigating therapeutics for your at-risk loved ones with covid

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More from @Farzad_MD

Apr 7
1/ The CMS final 2026 rate notice for Medicare Advantage just dropped, on the "no later than" date of April 7

The final rate is up- by a lot more than industry consensus of 75-100 bps!

I think a lot of plans are going to feel a little relief about their preliminary bids tonight Image
2/ One sell side analyst said "the most bullish expectation we heard [before] was a +125bps improvement"

ahem... my expectation was better than that, but even I didn't think it would be 310 bps better.

So why?

Because Dr Oz likes Medicare Advantage?

3/ If you missed, go back ands read my January tweetorial on the Advance Rate Notice (which was already "better than expected")

The short answer is that each year's "FFS growth rate" includes a true up of CMS actuaries' past and future cost estimates

Read 14 tweets
Mar 15
1/ I love reading the annual March MedPAC report to Congress on Medicare Payment Policy

such good, clear data and policy thinking.

kudos to @medicarepayment staff and chair @Michael_Chernew

I'll post some thoughts/highlights as I read through this morning
2/ My focus will be on the areas I know best
-Primary care
-Alternative payment models
-Medicare Advantage
-Competition and consolidation

The report is here for those following at home.

medpac.gov/document/march…
3/ Here's the first nugget from their core responsibility - recommending payment rates to congress that ensure beneficiary access to care

Clinicians are paid 140% of Medicare by commercial plans... but you wouldn't know that by working with independent practices (as I do) Image
Read 39 tweets
Feb 15
1/ After residency at Mass General Hospital, I reported to Atlanta to meet my fellow CDC Epidemic Intelligence Service Officers.

I have never felt so intimidated by my peers

The best and the brightest, they were star clinicians, had served in disaster zones; MD/PhDs and MSF.
2/ We were placed at various centers throughout CDC, learning from the world's experts- in tuberculosis, mosquito-borne diseases, food-borne diseases, ...

and some of us were placed with state & local Health departments to be on the front lines of outbreak response
3/ In my first day on the job, I got into a city sanitation car to investigate an outbreak of bloody diarrhea at a state psychiatric facility.

My boss has served in the EIS. Her boss, the legendary head of the NYC Bureau of Communicable Disease had also.

Our commissioner too.
Read 16 tweets
Jan 16
1/ A topic of great interest at #JPM was the "better than expected" 2026 Advance Rate Notice for Medicare Advantage that dropped on Friday

I dug into the numbers - let me share what it might portend for plans and risk-taking providers in MA, after a tough couple of years

(🚀)
2/ I have to say I'm surprised how often investors/analysts believe that government actions are fundamentally arbitrary and unpredictable

I believe most agencies will tell you exactly what they're doing and why, if you have the patience to wade into the weeds

(me: a former fed) Image
3/ The table most people see every year is this one.

Most of these numbers come straight from the actuaries, and there is basically no political interference in eg what number is put in the "Effective Growth Rate" box

instructive @KFFHealthNews interview
kffhealthnews.org/news/foster-re…Image
Read 20 tweets
Oct 29, 2024
1/ Is Value-Based Care working? After a decade, we know this:

The latest results for the largest such program just dropped.

Giving primary care accountability for total cost and quality of care is good for patients, good for practices, and good for society.

Let's dig in.
2/ As the press release says

480 ACOs providing care to nearly 11 million people with Medicare saved the gov't $5B dollars while improving quality of care

The gov't kept $2B

Providers earned an extra $3B

Beneficiaries saved on lower out-of-pocket spending-AND LESS SUFFERING
3/ Sure, there are alternatives!

We can cut benefits to seniors. That would save money.

We can cut pay for doctors. That would save money.

We can do Denials or "Utilization Management". That would save money.

Or we can incentivize more coordination and more primary care.
Read 16 tweets
Jul 12, 2024
1/ The annual quick read and analysis of the Notice of Proposed Rulemaking that regulates the Medicare Shared Savings Program (MSSP) is upon us, folks.

like last year, there are a number of uncontroversial/incremental improvements

there are also a couple of head-scratchers..
2/ I will go through in roughly the same order as the excellent fact sheet:
cms.gov/newsroom/fact-…

and as usual, this builds on @Travis_Broome

x.com/Travis_Broome/…
3/ the starting point of the fact sheet is the right one.

there are 11M Medicare benes in the program and the most important goal of any changes should be to increase participation

Here they estimate by 4M over the next few years, towards goal of 100% participation

why? Image
Read 20 tweets

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