Lab: Outbreak started next to low biosafety lab studying & engineering diverse SARS-like viruses from caves & markets across China & SE Asia.
Market: Early Covid-19 cluster was at market that sold animals that can carry SARS-like viruses.
Circ. evidence that moved the 🪡 for me was 2021 revelation that the Wuhan-US scientists had a 2018 roadmap for inserting novel cleavage sites in unspecified SARS-like viruses👩🔬
For me, it would be a colossal coincidence (but not implausible) for a virus like SARS2 to naturally emerge in the only city in the world where scientists had years of access to SARS2-like viruses and the plans+ability to insert novel cleavage sites (a feature unique to SARS2).
There are 10,000s of live animal markets worldwide, many located in South China or SE Asia where SARS2-like viruses have been found.
But the pandemic virus decided to emerge at the market in the one city with the only lab in the world with the above activities and capabilities.
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If I'm looking at this EcoHealth Alliance graphic correctly, in 2017, Wuhan city was predicted to have less pandemic-potential viruses than West Coast cities of the US. science.org/content/articl…
"Supaporn counters that the goal of wildlife surveillance isn’t to characterize every potential viral threat, but rather to learn how viruses evolve."
Can we all cut to the chase here?
If we learn how to accurately predict pandemic pathogens, that means we will also have mastered how to create pandemic pathogens.
Scientists can't tell us what the #OriginOfCovid is. Neither can intelligence agencies in the US and other countries.
I don't understand why people are rushing to bet their party or "science" on a particular origin. open.spotify.com/episode/2e4Jen…
I'm curious what the plan is for those scientists (& non-scientists) who are telling everyone that the science points solidly at a natural #OriginOfCovid
It's not going to be easy to recover trust in science (or you) if evidence for a lab origin surfaces in the years to come.
We know that a lot of key evidence and info is being suppressed. We just don't know what that evidence points to - a natural or lab #OriginOfCovid
If you put truth 1st (and not "winning" for your tribe), then the only rational position is science/intelligence doesn't know yet.
After Ian Lipkin sent this email to a co-author on Proximal Origin, their manuscript was posted on Virological 5 days later - arguing against an adaptation through culture #OriginOfCovid scenario.
We now know the Wuhan Institute of Virology had access to SARS2-like viruses (+ we don't know what 180 unique SARS-like viruses they had found by 2018). They also had the intent to engineer novel cleavage sites into SARSrCoVs.
The Proximal Origin authors wrote: "Identifying the immediate non-human animal source and obtaining virus sequences from it would be the most definitive way of revealing virus origins."
Well, it's now 2 years later and no original animal source or SARS2 variant has been found.
The Proximal Origin authors need to make up their minds about the adaptation of SARS2 to humans.
2020 Proximal Origin paper says virus is pre-adapted/optimized to human.
2021 Critical Review says this has no validity.
2022 Pekar preprint says pre-adaptation to human is likely.
You're changing your mind each year about whether to champion or condemn the pre-adaptation of the pandemic virus to humans so as to fit your current favorite hypothesis.
In Proximal Origin, you wrote "the high-affinity binding of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein to human ACE2 is most likely the result of natural selection on a human or human-like ACE2" and wondered whether the adaptation had happened in animals (pre-adaptation) or human.
An unexpected & welcome piece by @KelseyTuoc@voxdotcom on media failures in 2020:
"But lab origins weren’t a conspiracy theory — they were a credible scientific hypothesis, at a moment when we knew very little, for how Covid-19 could have originated" vox.com/future-perfect…
Disturbingly, 2+ years into the pandemic, some top journalists at influential media outlets have yet to learn lessons and hone their craft for reporting on developing Covid-19 stories. archive.ph/SmvK5
It would be so refreshing if some scientists would just apologize for suppressing the lab #OriginOfCovid hypothesis for non-scientific reasons. Instead we're getting treated to Proximal Origin 2.0 preprints about "dispositive evidence" of a natural origin. vanityfair.com/news/2022/03/t…
Very detailed piece by @KelseyTuoc@voxdotcom on the rising risk of lab-based outbreaks and why pandemic prevention research can inadvertently cause pandemics or be harnessed by bioterrorists. vox.com/22937531/virus…
@KelseyTuoc@voxdotcom “Advances in synthetic biology and biotechnology make it easier than ever before to make pathogens more lethal and transmissible... which increases the risk of deliberate or accidental releases of dangerous pathogens,” Lieberman told the bipartisan Commission on Biodefense.
The same workflow of serial passaging natural viruses through cells or animals of various species, then popping in novel features that could enhance the infectiousness and deadliness of that virus, can be proposed as a pandemic prevention research project or a bioweapons project.