Clint Ehrlich Profile picture
Apr 17 12 tweets 3 min read
Russia losing the cruiser Mosvka is hugely significant... but not for the reasons the media is telling you.

It's actually evidence that Russia invaded Ukraine due to the threat of NATO expansion.

Missing the connection? This thread will explain it. 🧵
When Russia began its pre-invasion military build-up around Ukraine's border, there was widespread debate about its motives.

I argued that NATO expansion into Ukraine was a true "red line" for Russia – one that would be enforced with military action.
Critics of this theory claimed that Ukraine had no imminent prospect of joining NATO, so that couldn't be the impetus for Russia's threatened invasion.

Yes, the alliance had promised in 2008 that Ukraine would *someday* join, but there was zero urgency.
My counter was that Ukraine's development of indigenous missiles was closing Moscow's window of opportunity to act.

If Moscow wanted to *ever* stop NATO membership, it was running out of time.

I made this point pre-invasion on the @scotthortonshow.
There were two main homegrown Ukrainian missile systems that concerned Russia:

1. The Hrim-2 ballistic missile, capable of striking Moscow from Ukrainian territory

2. The R-360 Neptune anti-ship cruise missile, capable of striking Russian Navy ships in the Black Sea
Before the war, the efficacy of both of these systems remained a major question mark.

It was unclear whether Ukraine's military-industrial base was actually capable of producing modern standoff weapons that could threaten Russia.

Even pro-Ukrainian sources were doubtful.
Today, the Hrim-2 ballistic missile has not yet been fielded.

Ukraine is reportedly continuing to develop it, with covert financial assistance from Saudi Arabia.

However, the R-360 Neptune is reportedly the system that Ukraine used to sink the Mosvka.
If that is accurate, then the broader efficacy of Ukraine's homegrown missile programs can no longer be questioned.

According to U.S. intelligence assessments, one of those systems just destroyed the flagship of Russia's Black Sea Fleet – perhaps the worst naval loss since WW2.
Given the success of Ukrainian military modernization, more credence must be given to the "narrowing window" theory to explain Russia's decision to invade.

If NATO admitted Ukraine *after* its missile-modernization program was complete, Russia would have had few options.
Indeed, as the successful use of the Neptune missiles against the Moskva illustrates, it is arguable that Russia *overestimated* its window of opportunity.

From a purely military perspective, Russia might have been better served by invading Ukraine *earlier*.
To be clear, this is not an endorsement of the Russian invasion.

The point is not to rationalize or excuse Russia's foreign policy.

It is to understand *why* Russia invaded, so we can deter future Russian aggression.
With that in mind, the sinking of the Moskva shows that Russian fears of a closing window of opportunity were sound.

Ukraine's missile modernization programs *were* a threat to RU conventional supremacy.

Moscow *was* running out of time to preempt Ukraine's NATO membership.

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More from @ClintEhrlich

Apr 9
I don't think Russia is committing genocide in Ukraine.

Even the horrifying atrocities alleged in Bucha don't appear to be genocide.

People using that word are obscuring the best path to protect civilians – which is to negotiate an end to the war. 🧵
If you care about protecting Ukrainian civilians from further horrors, it's critical to be accurate in assessing the dangers they face.

When people claim Russia is committing genocide, they make it sound like Ukraine's only choice is to fight to the last man.
That perception is enhanced by claims that the atrocities in Ukraine are the worst since WW2.

The subtext of the allegation is that Russia has taken on the role of Nazi Germany.

Negotiated peace with the Nazis was impossible, so it's implied that the same is true vs. Russia.
Read 12 tweets
Apr 7
Western experts are openly cheering on Ukrainian war crimes.

It's f***ing disgusting – just like celebrating war crimes by Russia would be.

We need to publicly shame these people for acting like soulless monsters. 🧵
One of the worst offenders is an Adjunct Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute: Lyman Stone.

He purports to be a Christian, but he can't hide his glee over Ukrainian atrocities.

I'm not exaggerating. The man admits these are war crimes – and still cheers them on.
Here, Lyman is celebrating a massacre of POWs by the Ukrainian military.

"Obviously a war crime, but also ... not exactly shedding huge tears over it?", he writes.

This is a man who purports to be a Christian, but he's gloating over a video of POWs being shot to death.
Read 10 tweets
Mar 30
The Biden White House refuses to specify which type of "Switchblade" drone it's providing Ukraine.

If it's the 300 model, it will be strategically irrelevant.

If it's the 600 model, it's a nightmare for Russian armored divisions. 🧵 Image
The switchblades are often called "loitering munitions."

That's just a fancy euphemism for "kamikaze drones."

They stay in the air for extended periods of time, until they ID a target and crash into it with an explosive charge.
The difference between the Switchblade 300 and 600 models is size, range, and lethality.

As this @AFP infographic illustrates, the Switchblade 600 is a much larger, heavier system capable of disabling enemy tanks from standoff range. Image
Read 8 tweets
Mar 28
🚨The Ukrainian military is violating the Geneva Conventions.

They're using civilian DHL trucks to attack Russian forces.

That is textbook "perfidy" – prohibited by Article 37 of First Protocol Additional to the 1949 Geneva Conventions. 🧵
This is the text of the prohibition.

Perfidy is defined as an act that:

(1) invites the adversary to believe he must provide protection under international law

and

(2) intentionally uses that false belief against the adversary.
There can be no doubt that Ukrainian forces are guilty of this crime by using DHL trucks to stage mortar attacks against Russian forces.

Specifically, the Geneva Conventions prohibit "the feigning of civilian, non-combatant status."

That is what Ukraine is doing.
Read 11 tweets
Mar 19
🚨🚨🚨 BREAKING: Russia has fired hypersonic Kinzhal ("dagger") missiles in Ukraine.

Officially, the weapons were used to destroy a munitions depot in Ivano-Frankivsk.

In reality, this is a MAJOR deterrent signal to NATO. 🧵 Image
There is no plausible reason that the Kinzhal would need to be deployed against Ukraine, given that its air defenses have already been suppressed.

It is Russia's single most advanced conventional weapon – 13 times as fast as a tomahawk, with 3x the payload. Image
Russia's use of the Kinzhal in Ukraine is similar to Trump's use of the MOAB (Mother of All Bombs) in Afghanistan in 2017.

In both instances, the point of the weapons deployment was not the immediate combat effect.

The goal is to menace other adversaries by demoing a system. Image
Read 9 tweets
Mar 9
🚨 Russia is escalating its controversial claims about U.S. bioweapons in Ukraine.

Today, a member of the Academy of Military Sciences -- Alexander Bartosh -- claimed America was developing *gene weapons* in Ukraine targeting Slavs. 🚨
To be clear, I am NOT endorsing the theory that America was developing gene-weapons in Ukraine.

I am *reporting* on this messaging from Russia's national-security establishment.

What Bartosh says is believed by the Russian public, and affects their support for the war.
Bartosh claims that it's not a coincidence the U.S. was performing anti-slavic gene-weapons development in Ukraine.

He says the laboratories need to be located close to the targets of the gene weapons to replicate the necessary environmental and demographic conditions.
Read 6 tweets

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