Every trader has a go-to strategy that works best for them. My trading is all about keeping it simple stupid and revolves around two indicators - Exponential moving averages and vwap.
Here's the strategy that I utilize on nearly 80% of my trades.
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What are Exponential Moving Averages?
EMA's are a type of moving average that places a greater weight on more recent data points.
8EMA = Exponential Moving Averages of the last 8 candle closing prices.
EMA's adjust with respect to chart time frame.
What is VWAP?
Volume Weighted Average Price - A key intraday indicator in my trading that offers the true average price based on price & volume.
Calculation: (Price x # of shares traded) / total shares traded
EMA's I use
- 8
- 21
- 50
While I do utilize the 50EMA, the 8 & 21 EMA are most important for this strategy. Some people use the 9 and 20 which are essentially the same thing. REMEMBER: EMA'S adjust with respect to time frames.
A+ Set Up Criteria - (What I look for)
1. Break/Bounce/Rejection of a Key Level 2. Ema Crossover 3. Pullback/Retracement to the EMA's 4. Higher conviction when EMA's are above vwap for calls and below vwap for puts. 5. Entry off of 8ema taps
What is an EMA Crossover?
An ema crossover signals to me that a trend is forming. I tend to see for a call strategy the trend is stronger when EMA's are above vwap and the same for puts when EMA's are below vwap.
After an EMA crossover has formed I look to add calls/puts on pullbacks/retracements to the 8EMA.
I never add directly into a large red or green candle extended from the EMA's bc with every large move there will always be a pullback/bounce. That's where I like to add.
Here's an example from today. 1. Bearish 8/21 EMA crossover to the downside 2. EMA's below VWAP 3. Retracement to the 8EMA triggers me to add 363p 4. Price action rejects 8EMA 5. Exited for +103% 24 minutes later
Instead of entering directly off of an EMA crossover, I will wait for the stock to retrace to the 8ema. I tend to see new traders enter into large red/green candles which is a huge no-no for me. Stocks will always pull back or bounce so why enter into a trending candle?
Especially since we are trading options and time decay is not our friend. In my opinion, trading options is all about nailing the entry and that's exactly what the EMA's offer to me. High conviction entries.
Bullish Example:
Why do I favor entering calls above vwap and puts below vwap? I tend to see VWAP act as intraday support/resistance. I am more comfortable taking a call strategy when price action & ema's are above vwap and puts when price action & ema's are below vwap.
Here's an example of why I favor price action & EMA's to be above/below vwap for the call/put strategy.
As you can see here we get a bullish 8/21 crossover and a pullback to the 8ema. The vwap rejection plummeted the price and the strategy would have failed here.
That is exactly why I will almost always avoid adding calls (with respect to this specific strategy) when price action and EMA's are below VWAP. The same goes for puts, inversely.
I use the standard VWAP setting on webull, the 5-minute chart, and of course the 8 & 21 EMA.
I hope you guys enjoyed this thread. Feel free to reach out if you decide to implement this strategy and find some success! Let me know what you think in the comments below. For all my trading alerts and ideas click the discord link in my bio. As always, happy trading.
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In honor of the New Year commencing, here is a tweet of my favorite threads I posted in 2022. Everything from options basics to charting & candlesticks to @unusual_whales flow, and much more. I hope this helps benefit your 2023 trading!
Although candlestick patterns don't tell the whole story, they can be a great tool to identify short-long term reversals in price action. Knowledge is power! Let's get into it.
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Here are a few of the basic candlesticks patterns everyone should be familiar with & will go further in-depth in this thread.
A+ Setups
An A+ setup to me might be different than what an A+ setup is to you. I like to have 3-4 pieces of conviction to deem something as A+. Examples include:
- Candlestick Patterns
- Charting Patterns
- Supply/Demand Breaks
- Gap Fill Strat/Peaky Strat/Golden Goose etc.
Building a broad watchlist of stocks that I'm interested in trading is a critical part of my preperation for the day. Here's a thread on how I create my watchlist.
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A watchlist is a small to medium list of stocks that align with your guidelines for solid trading setups.
Before the market opens I like to have at least 2-3 tickers with potential setups I will be watching throughout the day.
Pretty simple analysis in my eyes. Going to break it down with a few charts across a few different timeframes.
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Head & Shoulders - Daily Time Frame
Once the 100-102 neckline was broken it was game over. Also, very nice BHG setup on the retest of that neckline November 15th
Rounding Top into Head & Shoulders - Weekly Time Frame
Could've seen this move coming hence the rounding top posted on the weekly time frame. Once the 144 neckline was broken it was a clear move to 100 measured move count.
H&S Peak formed at the previous rounding top neckline
Before placing a trade I always have ideas about my sizing, entries/exits, stop levels & more. By formulating a risk management plan I decrease my risk of losing unnecessary amounts of capital and increase my chances of profitability.
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Risk = the chance that an investment's actual gains will differ from an expected outcome or return.
I like to look at risk as the amount of money you could lose on a trade. If you predetermine how much you are willing to lose, you are able to measure what "loss" means to you.
Determining a Stop Loss:
1. Max pain per trade (Dollar Figure) 2. Key level/area on the chart
Here's a thread on critical trading tactic that I take very seriously. Without consistent uniform sizing, I have noticed, successful trading becomes harder. It's important to come up with a position sizing plan that works for you.
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Position sizing refers to the guide that dictates how much working capital you allocate on a single trade.
Key components to consider:
- Risk Tolerance
- Account Size
- Type of Trade
- Trading Goals
Risk Per Trade:
Everyone is different. Everyone's goals are different. The first question I like to ask myself is how much money am I willing to risk per trade.
I usually choose one or two options: 1. Fixed Amount 2. Percentage of Portfolio