Thread by @RainbowMurray

Macron's opening speech defends his track record for the first term and then - surprise, surprise - moves onto the environment, which is his new favourite theme because he sees it as the key to winning over Melenchon voters

Immediately Le Pen hits back by talking about the cost of living & complaining about fuel tax (which encourages people to use less fuel - important for the environment - but is seen as contributing to the cost of living crisis). Smart move, shifts from her weak spot to his

Macron notes that Le Pen's manifesto does not even mention unemployment, and interprets this with humorous gratitude as her recognition of his success in lowering the unemployment rate. They're both doing pretty well thus far

Macron has started interrupting Le Pen. On the one hand this is good; allows him to correct her factual inaccuracies & call her out when she is spouting BS. But at the same time it looks like manterrupting when he does it repeatedly. Multiple dynamics in play

Le Pen just lost her train of thought mid sentence. She recovered and finished, but that's the first wobble. Once they get past the well-rehearsed opening speeches, it becomes clear that he is the more polished and experienced debater

Macron is doing exactly what I thought he would - talking up the environment, and debunking Le Pen in a bid to make her look incompetent, make her policies look unworkable and make her promises look empty. So far she hasn't found a good counter-strategy to this

Le Pen wants to give the French people their money back. I'm almost expecting the words "take back control" to spill from her lips (in French, of course. Mme Le Pen ne parle pas l'anglais)

"Mme Le Pen, what you are saying is factually incorrect... your claims are verifiably the opposite of what is actually true." She needs a counter-strategy. It was entirely predictable that he would try to discredit her, but so far she is not defending well

And now we're getting onto Russia. Alongside credibility, this is Le Pen's other major weak spot. She is literally in their debt - she is still paying back the loan from Russia that bankrolled her campaign. Macron will try to score a lot of points here

Le Pen declares her solidarity and total compassion towards the Ukrainians. Mmm-hmm. Yep.

Unlimited solidarity. Except when it comes to sanctioning oil and gas imports. She's not in favour of that, because it will hurt the French. (And also her friends in Russia.)

Macron is pointing out the inconsistencies between what Le Pen is claiming and what her party is doing on Ukraine. "That's not true!" "Yes it is, Mme Le Pen, it's a fact." And then here comes the "you're in Putin's pocket" bomb. We knew it was coming, and here it is. *mic drop*

Oh wow, she's trying to defend herself by referring to her own twitter feed. That's painfully bad. 😬

She's trying to pretend that his claims about her Russian loan is false. We're getting some "alternative facts" here. And then saying it's only because the French banks won't give her a loan. Wonder why that is? 🤔

Le Pen is digging herself all kinds of holes here. She knew this question was coming and she has no meaningful defence. The harder she tries to get out of this hole, the deeper she digs. This is painful to watch (well, if you're a fan of Le Pen. Otherwise it's quite entertaining)

Macron is now defending the EU and pointing out that Le Pen still wants to leave the EU because her policies haven't changed, even if she's gone quiet about it now. True: she no longer speaks of #Frexit but her policies are incompatible with staying in the EU

Le Pen's suggesting that being in the EU isn't all or nothing. That you can still stay in the EU while refusing to comply with any of its rules that you don't like that. She's in la la land because that's not how it works, but her target audience probably doesn't know that

Macron is nonetheless at pains to point out that Le Pen's stance on Europe is in la la land. In language that her target audience might understand. (Although he's appealing to their heads. She prefers to appeal to their gut, like any good populist)

He's accusing her of false selling on Europe. The main strategy: show that her policies, and by extension Le Pen herself, lack credibility. And now here it comes - her policy on national preference for employment is incompatible with EU membership. She can't keep her own promises

Next up: pensions & retirement age. This will be fun. So far we've been on topics that are weak for Le Pen, but now we've hit Macron's weakness. Leading with a policy to raise the retirement age made sense financially and no sense whatsoever electorally. Her chance for a comeback

"Retirement at 65 is an unforgiveable injustice, Mr Macron." Ah Mme Le Pen, you should try the UK where we have to work till at least 67!

Le Pen didn't gain as much ground there as she should have done. Macron is now countering by pointing out that he also wants to raise the value of pensions by more than his rival. He is better prepared than she was to defend on his weak points

Macron is emphasising how those who need to retire earlier due to the nature of their jobs are better protected under his regime than hers & also emphasising fiscal responsibility. She counters by accusing him with stats about France being in debt which he dismisses as inaccurate

Le Pen is now slamming Macron with a series of stats demonstrating all the ways in which France's economy has suffered during Macron's presidency. Macron cannot counter as he's out of time, it's her turn to speak. So now she's really on the attack

Macron finally gets his turn and, surprise surprise, is blaming all the debt on Covid and defending with pride all the spending he did to protect the French economy during the pandemic - and now asking her why she voted against his Covid spending measures

Le Pen is critiquing Macron's public health measures during the pandemic as too heavy-handed. Many will be familiar with this debate; the libertarian stance is well-versed by parties of the (far) right in many other countries as well

Now onto healthcare. Not a particular area of strength for either candidate. But, now that the worst of the pandemic appears to be behind us, not the top priority for voters any more either

Le Pen is taking the opportunity to attack the state of healthcare in France (and, by extension, Macron's track record in this regard). So far she's scoring more points than him on this one

Le Pen is attacking the lack of healthcare provision in rural areas. Smart move; she scores well among rural voters who perceive Macron as part of the urban elite

Macron is talking about social care and is a bit more faltering in his argument. He needs to do better here because this is one of the areas where the left will be listening carefully for a reason to vote for him

Now onto the environment. Macron will want to do well here, it's a key flank of his plan to woo Melenchon voters. Le Pen is trying to blame globalisation and free trade and suggest that buying local ("economic patriotism") will save the planet. Nice try

Le Pen now painting herself as the defender of animal rights. Specifically, opposing live exports. Like all her policies, it's not really about ending suffering, it's about promoting nationalism. Better to pay French people to slaughter animals in France

Macron now attacking Le Pen's "incoherence" because she wants to import fossil fuels and reduce tax on them. Then he recognises his track record on the environment is mediocre and that he needs to do better in his 2nd term.

Le Pen denies being a climate sceptic & counters that Macron is a climate hypocrite. Attacks his taxes on pollution that hurt those on low incomes more. Accuses him of "punitive ecology." He says environmental measures need to be sped up; she argues they need to be slowed down

Le Pen is attacking wind power, which she wants to scrap entirely, and defending nuclear power (& fossil fuels). Macron is actually pro nuclear power - but also in favour of wind power & other renewables. A key difference between them

Macron's defence of his energy policies is underwhelming. Melenchon is well ahead of Macron on the environment, but Macron is still ahead of Le Pen, so he needs to score lots of points here. He's making his case, but not doing enough to get a clear win here

Le Pen: "I'm not like you."
Macron: "No. No, you're not like me. Thanks for reminding people of that."
Aww, so nice to see them agreeing on something! 🥰

Le Pen actually got reminded by the moderator to stop spouting rhetoric and actually state her policy 😆

They're discussing (cyber) technology and Macron is using this as another opportunity to defend the EU, free trade and globalisation. Sees the EU as the way to compete with the US and China

The moderator is reminding Macron to let Le Pen speak. He keeps interrupting her to correct her inaccuracies. Problem is that there are so many inaccuracies that he is struggling to let her finish a sentence

Macron now talking about industry, talking up his track record, but Le Pen is now the one interrupting and attacking. Macron keen to emphasise that he has brought down unemployment - one of the main successes of his 1st term

Macron now actually answering the question he was asked, on education. Telling that he initially answered this by reverting to industry, which is a stronger subject for him. Not a great track record on education and few vote-winners to offer here

Le Pen trying to emphasise here her new self-appointed role as the champion of French youth. Pointing out how the pandemic hurt young people and says she will make youth the focal point of her presidency. Problem for her though is that young voters less likely to turn out to vote

Now Le Pen talking about discipline in schools and respect for teachers. A little nod to her more authoritarian tendencies and emphasis on law & order (a key flank of her campaign that has not yet come up in the debate)

Le Pen also talking about safety in schools and the disruptive effect of certain ne'er-do-wells. Wants the right to expel all the little delinquents who mess things up for everyone else. Lock 'em up! Lock 'em up! (You get the idea.)

Macron really struggling to score any points here. I expect he will be relieved when they get to the end of education and move onto something else. He is not popular with teachers.

Le Pen attacking Macron's attempts to give more support to schools in deprived areas by painting it as another example of the urban/rural divide. But this allows Macron to come across as more progressive on supporting deprived kids

Aha! We're moving off education (Macron will be relieved) and onto law and order (Le Pen will be delighted). She is now doing the usual fear-mongering about how crime-ridden and dangerous France is, before getting to her key policies (lock 'em up! lock 'em up!)

Oh, my bad. We're not yet onto increasing sentences and building more prisons. Instead Le Pen is blaming everything on immigrants and the violent policy of allowing non-French people to enter France. The safety of the French depends on kicking out all the undesirables

Ah, here we go, now we've got to increasing sentences. For once, Macron is completely silent. Wise. Le Pen is now showing the true colours that she has hidden for most of the campaign. He's letting her incriminate herself, show how far-right she really is

And now Macron is replying by pointing out how Le Pen was quick to blame the police when a protestor disrupted her campaign event. (The protestor was peacefully holding up a photo of Le Pen shaking Putin's hand.)

Now Macron is now talking about violence against women. A little nod to the female electorate. Le Pen can't let this go and interrupts. Interesting dynamic; a female far-right candidate who attempts, but not always successfully, to score points with women

Macron denouncing Le Pen's wish to increase sentences, especially for juvenile delinquents, pointing out that this only increases their chances of re-offending once released and is therefore self-defeating

Ooh, we've got to religion. Le Pen can now outline one of her flagship policies: ban wearing headscarves in all public places. And attack "Islamism" and rant about terrorism. Here comes a bucketload of racism and Islamophobia (she denies it, but really there's no denying it)

So to defend women's rights & keep the French people safe we need to deport the scary Islamists + cut immigration + stop Muslims practising their religion. As usual, she denies all agency to Muslim women and paints them as hapless victims forced to wear a veil against their will

Anyone who thinks that Le Pen is not that radical or scary any more should listen to that rant against Muslims (sorry, "Islamists"). She has not changed. That was hate speech.

Macron just accused Le Pen of creating civil war with her policies! He is not holding his punches here. He is pointing out how contrary her policies are to French values of liberty and tolerance. He accuses her of betraying the Republic. He's in his comfort zone now

Macron is now in full-throttle attack. His mission: destroy the notion that Le Pen has "detoxified" her policies and remind voters that she is scary and that, whether they like him or not, they need to keep her out of power. He's rehearsed this and he's doing well

This part of the debate is pure fear-mongering on both sides. Le Pen is trying to make everyone scared of the threat of "Islamists". Macron is trying to make everyone scared of the threat of Le Pen.

Macron is pointing out the incoherence in Le Pen's attempts to claim she is attacking only an ideology ("Islamism") and not a religion (Islam) when she proposes to ban Muslim headscarves. She has nowhere to hide here

Le Pen avoided talking about immigration throughout the campaign. She focused on the voter-friendly cost of living crisis and left all the toxic talk to Eric Zemmour. Now she is showing her true colours and going on an anti-immigrant rant.

Macron is also showing some hostility to immigrants. He's not Le Pen, but his policies here will resonate far better with Pecresse voters than with Melenchon voters. He's shifted further to the right here than in 2017.

Now onto the constitution. Le Pen wants to restore the presidential term to 7 years & govern by referendum (principally cos she knows she can't get a parliamentary majority). But Macron is speaking 1st. Proposing reform rather than revolution for France's democratic institutions

Le Pen is promising a "democratic rebirth". Well, that's one way of putting it. Will it be a phoenix rising from the ashes, or just a pile of ashes? 🤔

Obviously Le Pen is in favour of proportional representation. France briefly switched to PR in 1986 & her party won lots of seats. It helped establish them as an electoral force. France swiftly ditched PR & it has blocked her party from getting its proportion of seats ever since

The constitution prohibits its own revision by referendum. But de Gaulle tested this principle to extend his own power. When constitutional scholars point out the limits of referenda, Le Pen just counters by saying "but de Gaulle did it so I can too". Dangerous precedent

Macron is pointing out all the dangerous things that Le Pen could do to France if elected as his closing speech. Paints himself as the defender of French values and his opponent as a threat to the Republic.

Le Pen is using her closing speech to make noises about social policy while attacking globalisation, criminality, immigrants etc. Claims her policies are viable (!!) and for all French people (!!!).

And so ends the debate, 30 minutes late. Who won? I'd say Macron overall, although Le Pen has certainly raised her game since 2017. Macron scored some easy points, but struggled with social policy, education, even the environment - all areas where he needs to woo Melenchon voters

Macron's strength was persuading people not to vote for Le Pen. But he didn't do enough to persuade people to vote for him. He still needs to worry about abstention. Meanwhile Le Pen also did a good job of persuading people not to vote for her, but held her own better than 2017

Commentators now pointing out how Le Pen made a point of not coming across as too aggressive, not too scary, but as a result may not have gone on the offensive enough