Thread by @michaeldweiss

🧵New from @holger_r and me: "Karl," our Estonian defense specialist, offers his insights into Russia's eastern offensive.

"The offensive started at the weekend. That’s when the intensity of the battles grew. We know because Russia’s losses were higher than on the days before."

"This phase will be different than when the war started on Feb 24. Russia will not attack across the whole frontline, simultaneously. The intensity of fighting is roughly twice as much as what came before."

"The Russians are focused on two axes: 1) Izyum, 2) Severodonetsk and surrounding towns. They've had some success in Kreminna, but that’s a tactical decision by Ukraine. 130 Russians were hospitalized from there in the last day. This indicates dozens were killed. That’s a lot."

"Perspective: If Russia doesn’t succeed in 1.5 weeks, their offensive will subside. Then a countdown starts for Ukraine’s counteroffensive. I’m still cautiously optimistic about Russia not succeeding."

"Russia simply doesn’t have enough forces in the east. Ukraine believes they have 90 BTGs; the U.S. says it’s less than 80. Ukraine has at least the same number of troops to defend."

"Russia has more armor, tanks, and artillery. Ukraine has more precision weapons but not enough to react all along the front. Russia has too many 'dumb' weapons, which makes a Ukrainian counteroffensive difficult."

"Ukraine's tactics remains the same: ambush battles, destruction of convoys. Ukraine can’t do force v. force and doesn't try to."

"Another positive: Ukraine keeps getting new arms, new equipment. Russia can’t get it from anywhere and only gets weaker. The supply chain from Russia to Izyum is as long as from Belarus to Kyiv. This makes Russia more careful than it was in the beginning of the war."

"Mariupol falling would be a PR win for Russia but wouldn’t have too much of an impact militarily. Russia's BTGs battling there are in no condition to continue fighting on another front. That said, I don't believe Mariupol will fall in the next few days."

"Ukraine has experience from 2014 when it held onto the Donetsk Int'l Airport for six months. The area of the Azovstal steel factory is many times larger. Every possible war scenario indicated Russia would encircle Mariupol. Ukraine stocked it with ammunition and food."

"The goal of striking Kramatorsk railway station wasn’t to hinder Ukraine's military movements. It was to complicate civilian evacuation. Civilians in the battlespace affects Ukrainian troops. Russia, on the contrary, doesn't care about civilian lives."

"Russia has 10-12 BTGs in reserve behind its borders but no one knows their real condition. It’s complicated to get the BTGs to full capacity. Russia is desperately mobilizing from DNR/LNR..."

"They're force 55-60 year-old men into the Russian army. It’s a huge and desperate risk as among them are those who will turn their weapons against that army."

"I can't see how Russia can declare a big win in two weeks (before May 9). It can get tiny tactical wins only. There is no reason why Ukraine's defenses should fail."

"Regarding the possibility of Russia's holding a referendum to declare a Kherson People’s Republic: if they open polling stations, this creates a very good opportunity for Ukrainian partisan operations..."

"It's a very risky gambit for Russia. See today’s news about a pro-Russian blogger getting shot & killed in Kherson."

"Public opinion in Russia can change only if the battle of Donbass fails. There’s no force inside the country to effectively oppose the war. Soldiers’ mothers come the closest." / ENDS