Thread by @lifeofc

(1/10) I've been seeing a couple trends lately in the NFT space and I wanted to bring them together and see if I can make some sense out of it.

Thread below. 🧵👇

(2/10) First, I've been noticing more tweets lately about slow sales for 1/1s. And if you look at the numbers, you can see that it has been trending down since the start of the year for SuperRare/Foundation/etc.
dune.com/rchen8/superra…

(3/10) The second thing I've noticed is the increase in access list opportunities I've received both for editions and 1/1 collections. I've also seen an increase of passes/keys that give people early access to drops like Proof Collective and Quantum Key.

(4/10) The incredible success of the Proof Collective Grail drop with some stunning reveals, showed that these keys could give you access to some very lucrative drops. Quantum Key is doing Quantum Gems, plus some lesser known passes like 0xOG have an impressive 6.7 ETH floor.

(5/10) Of course there is also Moonbirds which is the mother of all passes, a 10K pfp that promises Proof-like member benefits/utility. The reason I mention all of this is because that is where a lot of ETH is going right now for collectors.

(6/10) If you are a good well known collector then you are getting lots of private DMs about these deals and they are ones that you can't really turn down since it's such a great opportunity or they are coming from great artists that they have supported for a very long time.

(7/10) I think this is one of the reasons why 1/1 sales are slowing at the moment. The ETH is being pushed into these private deals to build up top name collectors into these projects. But this is not all a bad thing and it's only temporary.

(8/10) If these private deals and opportunities work out for these collectors, I predict that much of that ETH they make will go back into 1/1s. I think many of these collectors truly love 1/1s. They buy and hold them because they love the art.

(9/10) So I predict 1/1 sales will swing back up in probably in a few months, give or take. The smart collectors are holding these passes/keys and not selling them now for single digit ETH in hopes of making double digit ETH later.

(10/10) The coming month or so will be telling because if these passes/keys don't pan out, it might be the beginning of a down turn. And if it does pan out, it might be the beginning of a bull run.

Fun times ahead. Hold on to your popcorn.🍿