Thomas de Waal Profile picture
Apr 22 5 tweets 3 min read
Different signals on the future of #Transnistria/#Transdniestria #Moldova as the Ukraine war continues. Russia military commander Rustam Minnekayev, quoted in today’s Kommersant, says Russia's war aim is to establish total control over south of Ukraine.
kommersant.ru/doc/5318738
That means, establishing a land bridge to Crimea, crippling Ukraine's economy--and also linking up, he says, to Transdniestria “where facts are recorded of the oppression of the Russian-language population” (By whom? we might ask.)
The population of Trandniestria itself do not seem to have got the memo. A report here three days ago that increasing numbers of Transdniestrians are applying for Moldovan citizenship and the total number is now at 338,000
newsmaker.md/rus/novosti/v-…
An excellent and details summary of the delicate balancing act both Transdniestria and Chisinau are playing here as the war unfolds from @Keith_h96
defactostates.ut.ee/blog/transnist…
PS worth noting this bizarre and revealing quote from General Minnekayev in the Kommersant article, saying that Russia “is fighting with the whole world as it was in the Great Patriotic War [Second World War].” Allies, what Allies? Talk about revisionist history!

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More from @Tom_deWaal

Apr 4
Parallels and differences in Ukraine with Russia’s first war in #Chechnya in 1994. My piece for @WSJ from Friday. A swift "special operation" failed, there was no Plan B. So Moscow resorted to mass bombardment, Russians in Grozny bore the brunt of it.
wsj.com/articles/chech…
The brutality of the Russian army against Chechens rallied resistance, even from opponents of Jokhar Dudayev.
Both then and now I see what I'd call a “false memory” of World War II, that forgets the human cost and assumes that total warfare is a legitimate route to victory...
My piece came out before the Bucha massacre was revealed. If I were to write it today I would have talked more about impunity, about atrocities in Samashki and Novye Aldi that were never properly investigated.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 9
1 A long🧵on the situation in #Transdniestria/#Transnistria, misconceptions and fears that it could turn into a new front in the war.
My main point is there's a shared interest both in Transdniestria (TN) and in right-bank Moldova in stopping the conflict from reaching them.
2 In the end if Russian advance continues to Odessa spread of the conflict to Moldova is quite likely. But internationals should bear in mind that TN is far from eager to be Russia’s helper against Ukraine. It's more complex and to suggest so fans conflict.
3 I spoke to a few people in Chisinau and Tiraspol in last few days. Quick wake-up call came when 8 missiles destroyed Vinnytsia airport and reports said they came from TN. Moldova's MOD quickly denied this. (They were probably fired from Black Sea.)
Read 23 tweets
Mar 9
“We strongly encourage all young pianists of any nationality, but particularly those from Ukraine, Russia, and Belarus, to participate in the upcoming edition of the Busoni Competition.”
Bravo to the Busoni Piano Competition for this.
busoni-mahler.eu/en/home-en/?fb…
Solidarity for Ukraine and support for all Ukrainians is the No. 1 priority surely. At the same time the collective moral punishment some arts and educational institutions are applying to ordinary Russians and Belarusians denying them scholarships or college places, is hideous
—especially when it comes from people who have the comfort of living in societies with free speech and democracy. It’s not so many steps from here to blaming all Muslims for 9/11 or interning all Germans and Japanese in World War II. Don’t go there please!
Read 5 tweets
Feb 28
1 “The resolution of the Ukraine question.” A mistakenly published Russian article gives us a chilling insight into the neo-imperialist thinking in Russia that drives Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine. A (long) THREAD.
2. RIA Novosti news agency accidentally published an article, tagged with a publication date of 8AM on February 26, already celebrating a Russian victory and collapse of the Ukrainian state within an anticipated two days. It's still on their site.
web.archive.org/web/2022022605…
3. The main theme is that the "operation" is a defeat for the West's project to defeat Russia. That Putin seized the moment to return Ukraine to its historic Slavic union with Russia and Belarus. Potential NATO candidacy is seen as a symptom of the problem, not the main cause.
Read 28 tweets
Feb 15
1/ The Duma has passed a resolution calling on President Putin to recognize the two Russian-supported “people’s republics” in eastern Ukraine.
There are good reasons to be sceptical that Putin will follow through.
themoscowtimes.com/2022/02/15/rus…
2/ Recall that in March 2008, the Duma passed a similar resolution on Abkhazia and S Ossetia and also called for recognition of Transdniestria. The context was recent Western recognition of Kosovo and the upcomimg Bucharest NATO summit.
rferl.org/a/1079638.html
3/ In the end Russia recognized Abkhazia and S Ossetia in August 2008, after the Five-Day War.
As I’ve argued before, these acts of recognition cost both Georgians and Abkhaz and Ossetia dear, and reaped few long-term strategic benefits for Russia.
carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurop…
Read 11 tweets
Apr 22, 2021
1 Pres. Biden may recognize the destruction of the Ottoman Armenians in 1915 as the Armenian Genocide @john_Hudson, @JakesNYT report. It’s the right thing to do. It will start to bring solace and closure to Armenians whose grandparents died in 1915-16.
2 This could lead to new understanding and dialogue--or not. A thread on this (knowing well that it's far too deep an issue for social media.) Here is my interview to @JAMNewsCaucasus about Armenian-Turkish issues and recognition jam-news.net/armenia-turkey…
3 The first thing to say: the destruction and deportation of almost all the Ottoman Armenians in 1915-16 was acknowledged at the time as the biggest atrocity of WW1. There are thousands of memoirs about it. Here are just five powerful ones
fivebooks.com/best-books/mem…
Read 16 tweets

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