Thread by @Sustainable2050

Netherlands has "the ambition" to end all imports of Russian gas, oil and coal by end of the year. @MinPres "This will require hard work, both on energy saving and on LNG".
Indeed, 8 months is not a lot of time; good to hear energy saving mentioned first now! Happy to help.

https://twitter.com/Nieuwsuur/status/1517587591679328261

@MinPres Reading Dutch govt's letter to parliament on "independence of Russian oil, coal, and gas while maintaining security of supply". You can find it here:
rijksoverheid.nl/binaries/rijks…

Headlines:
1) Firstly, we aim for energy conservation and accelerating the energy transition
2) In the short run, we need fossil-for-fossil too.
- Importing Russian coal will be completely ended within 4 months, thanks to the 5th EU sanctions package.

- For gas, infrastructure will be built this year to enable replacement of Russian gas
- For oil, the Netherlands aims for an EU agreement in the coming weeks to become independent of Russian oil with sufficient security of supply.

On energy saving, the letter starts with the govt's 'flip the switch' campaign (zetookdeknopom.nl). It says the 5 tips on lowering the thermostat (in general, at night, in bedrooms etc., and when you're away) and shorter showers can save up to 1/3 of gas use in a household.

The recent national insulation programme aims to insulate 2.5 million homes (separate letter to parliament: rijksoverheid.nl/binaries/rijks…). That's between now and 2030, and €4 billion in govt support is being made available (not a lot, at first sight).

The energy efficiency obligation for companies (take all measures with a payback time of less than 5 years) will be expanded. [At Common Futures, we're working on proposals to make the obligation more effective. More on that the week after next!]

Govt aims to accelerate the energy transition. Ambitious policies on green hydrogen, 'green gas' (i.e. biomethane, for which NL now has a target of 1.6-2 bcm by 2030, equal to 4-5% of current fossil gas consumption) and electrification.

The 2030 offshore wind target was recently raised from 11 to 21 GW. NL aims for an ambitious implementation of the EU's #Fitfor55 programme. Before summer, govt will send its policy programme Climate & Energy to parliament.

On the vulnerability of NL to ending imports of Russian fossil fuels, the letter mentions that 'only 15% of our gas imports comes from Russia vs 34% for the EU as a whole', but it acknowledges the strong links with the EU economy and the need to take measures at European level.

For coal, the EU has already agreed on an import ban, with a transition period running for 4 months (until August). Alternatives, e.g. imports from Australia or Colombia, are available, but will drive up prices.

[I'd say this won't structurally reduce Russian coal exports, because its coal can be shipped elsewhere, but it will pose a logistical and contractual challenge to Russian coal companies, and it will lead to a discount compared to average global coal prices.]

[Also good to remember that coal imports are (financially) way smaller than oil and gas imports: roughly €20 million per day for coal vs €300 million each for the other two]

On gas, NL govt aims to reduce consumption by 6 billion m³ per year (15%, i.e. Russia's share, of the total). It estimates the overall effect of current policies to be 9 billion m³ by 2025.

LNG import capacity will be expanded by 8 billion m³/year this year, but that serves NW-Europe (not NL alone), and no additional LNG volumes will become available on the world market in the short term.

"With these measures, the Netherlands can be independent of Russian gas by the end of 2022."
[I can't follow the reasoning. Hard to see how the measures will lead to 6 out of the 9 billion m³/year demand reduction being achieved within 8 months, so must count on extra LNG.]

On the EU goal of filling at least 80% of gas storage volume before next winter, Dutch govt chooses to exceed that in some storages so W-Europe's largest freely accessible gas storage in Bergermeer only has to be filled to 70%. That's the one where Gazprom owns 40% of capacity.

Market parties can tender for a subsidy to fill the gas storage in Bergermeer, and in the end state-owned EBN will get subsidy to supply the remainder, also using part of Gazprom's volume if Gazprom doesn't fill that by itself.

.@Gasunie will make every effort to increase LNG import capacity in the Rotterdam terminal from 12 to 16 billion m³/year (bcm) before the end-2022, and it has rented a floating LNG terminal (+4 bcm as well) for 5 years, for Eemshaven. The aim is to connect it before winter.

.@Gasunie is trying to prevent that market parties book capacity on its floating LNG terminal which will be used to import LNG from Russia.

[I imagine this can be quite tricky, because of the combination of not boycotting Russian gas + gas market rules]

Gazprom could halt its gas supply to Europe on short notice, e.g. because EU will not comply with its demand to get paid in rubles. Then the emergency plan [incl. switching off certain industrial users] will apply, with EU agreed solidarity towards users in other member states.

The Netherlands wants EU to become independent of Russian oil asap, preferably this year. Govt notes the above average vulnerability of Dutch refineries: 34% of their oil came from Russia in 2021. NL wants EC to drat an exit strategy for Russian oil, 'ambitious but realistic'.

My short summary: phase-out of Russian coal being taken care of, for phase-out of Russian oil: mainly a request to the EC to come up with a plan.
The letter is most specific on the phase-out of Russian gas:

Govt sees becoming independent of Russian gas as reducing demand by 6 bcm, and says its policies can achieve that by end-2022.
Let's not argue about the 6 bcm for now (I'd say it needs to be more). However:

The logic behind the statement that this can be achieved within 8 months is missing, and it is not formulated as a hard target. That should be done asap, with a plan how to achieve it, weekly detailed monitoring, and constantly adjusting policies and measures to ensure it is met.

@threadreaderapp Could you unroll for me?