Momentum is stocks tendency to move in the direction of prevalent trend. You can use momentum to select stocks to swing trade or position trade. 🧵
Momentum can be calculated in many ways and the period and specific method used to calculate momentum depends on your goals and holding periods.
Momentum is often used to rank stocks and then top 25 or top 50 or top 200 stocks are selected for swing or position trades. This kind of momentum is relative momentum or relative strength.
Momentum can also be used to identify when a stock has entered momentum phase and when the momentum has ended. This kind of momentum is called absolute momentum. This is very useful to get in to a new trend early.
Momentum based trading strategies have big advantage as they allow you to put your money to work in fastest moving stocks. Momentum stocks have velocity and as a result you make higher returns by buying or shorting high momentum stocks.
Quality of momentum is important . Persistent momentum is good for longer duration holding periods. All persistent momentum phases ultimately end so it can also be good to find mean reversion trades
When momentum persists for a long duration there are always large players at work. If you analyse stocks with persistent momentum to upside or downside you will learn about some of the catalyst that drive the move.
While relative momentum ranking is very common , very few traders I have seen focusing on persistent momentum.
There are many ways to create persistent momentum scans in TC2000. The CountTrue, SinceTrue and TrueInRow function is very good for this. Using them you can find stocks with persistent momentum.
Using CountTrue, SinceTrue and TrueInRow you can create conditions to look for stocks that for example are above their moving average for X days in a row or find stocks that have more negative days than positive days in say 40 days.
There are several advantages to going beyond vanilla momentum ranking and looking at persistent momentum. If you are serious about making money , focus on persistent momentum.
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Understanding structural tendencies is the foundation to becoming profitable. A good understanding of them can help you build enduring edge.
There are many well known structural tendencies of the market that have historically proven to work and if you understand them in depth and build your trading around them , chances of you becoming profitable improve dramatically.
PEADS or Post Earnings Announcement Drift or SUE is a structural tendency of the market where stock with surprisingly good or bad earnings move in the direction of that earnings for next few months or quarters.
Many new traders approach me asking how can they become profitable quickly, the key is to develop setup specific procedural memory.
To become a highly profitable active trader understand procedural memory. It is a memory about how to perform a process like swing trading . It is implicit memory and once developed is permanent.
Procedural memory is stored in brain as one schema. So a process involving say 20 steps like entry , exit , stops and so on is not stored as discrete unit but part of one process.
Momentum Burst is a 3 to 5 day burst move where stock makes 8% to 40% move . This is a common phenomenon in market.
247 stocks in last week had 20% plus kind of move on bullish side. 130 had 20% plus down move in last 5 days. There were more bullish opportunities than bearish.
Momentum bursts can start from any level. Number of stocks in last few days had momentum burst that started from lows.
Look for stocks with big catalyst everyday (Episodic Pivots). You may not find them everyday, but once in a while they show up and just few of these big trades can make your year or sometime can change your life.
In order to find big winners you need a daily process that you follow to find them. If you follow the process day in and day out , luck will favor you and you will not miss a big opportunity.
Episodic Pivots is a very specific pattern post earnings that shows up on stocks with years of neglect. It is a very powerful pattern which results in stock going up 100 to 500% in few weeks or months , if they are small caps.
As an active trader I target 8 to 40% move in 3 to 5 days. These moves are short term momentum bursts. In order to understand these better everyday I study stocks up 20% plus in 5 days.
This is a very simple study done using a scan in tc2000
c/c5>=1.2 and minv3.1>100000 and c>=5
As of today it has 55 stocks making 20% move. tc2000.com/~nrfh1c
On the bearish side the scan is
c/c5<.8 and minv3.1>100000 and c>=5
and shows 13 stocks tc2000.com/~zTuNi7
When you do a deep dive like this on 1000 to 5000 setup in short time period of days or weeks you understand this setup and it becomes part of your way of thinking as you have invested significant brain energy in that activity. As a result you become good at identifying it
Psychologists have word for it called Mastery Experience. That experience changes your beliefs about that particular ability to find that setup.
Once you do a deep dive and you master a pattern next challenge is to execute it in real market environment. This requires innovation and process flows. You try one way of doing it , if that does not work you try another way till you find way to do it.