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Apr 24 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
A Ukrainian heavy-transport Antonov plane just landed in Sofia... I wonder why..
Bulgaria has been secretly supplying ammo to Ukraine via a "third country", in an attempt to prevent disintegration if the coalition government due to the Socialists' adamant pro-Kremlin objection to arms exports. But Ukraine hasn't been happy with a tryst, wants a marriage.
Bulgaria has the all-important large caliber (152) shells in quantities that can support Ukraine's defense for months. But secret supplies can only get Ukraine a streak, so Ukraine has been pushing for official sales. Maybe it worked. We'll find out soon.
It's namely Bulgaria's stockpiles of upgraded 152mm (and 122mm) shells, and its 2014's will to export to Ukraine, that likely led to the 2015 GRU poisoning of Emilian Gebrev, owner of exporter Emco, and causing explosions at two weapons depots in Czechia. bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-eu…

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More from @christogrozev

Christo Grozev Profile picture
Apr 18
The father of one of the young conscripts who went missing on the Moskva missile cruiser lashes out at the Russian military who are even refusing to tell him what happened to his son.
The father says he was contacted by three other families of MIA conscripts from the ship. They all want written answers. This isn't going down, no pun intended. m.vk.com/wall601245129_…
Get a lot of hate reactions to the father of the dead conscript. Totally understandable, but remember: the only realistic way to stop this war is through an implosion of the bubble of social support for it, and the more angry parents like this, the sooner the implosion.
Read 4 tweets
Christo Grozev Profile picture
Apr 9
A couple weeks ago a Wagner source told me of a hastily out together new PMC, owned by a son-in-law of a GRU general, and set up to get a piece of the money pie available during the war. A unit numbering approx 200 was stationed in Pripyaty /1
edition.cnn.com/2022/04/08/eur…
They stationed them in old condemned apartment blocks, seemingly unaware of the risks. A couple days later a wounded merc ended up in a Belarus clinic, causing the Geiger counter to almost break. The rest of the mercs, hearing of this, deserted in panic. MoD were looking for them
When I shared this with a Ukrainian journalist, he joked "so we don't need night visors to find then, as they glow green naturally".
Read 4 tweets
Christo Grozev Profile picture
Mar 29
These are good questions. Let me try to answer one by one.
Why the Ukrainian government denies is not a difficult question (it's war, it's negotiation time, information of this kind is both leverage (if private, one can trade it) and a liability (if public, one must act on it).
Why Abramovlch denies is a false premise. Unless I have missed something today, he doesn't deny. He confirms it but on background (actually his team's confirmation to WSJ is what got us to talk about it).
Why Russia denies is a very good question. If Russia had nothing to do with it, it would had all motives to claim this DID happen but was a Ukrainian provocation. After all, the symptoms appeared in Kyiv. What an opportunity for Russia... missed.
Read 6 tweets
Christo Grozev Profile picture
Mar 22
The humanitarian disaster in besieged Ukrainian cities is nightmarish, and the international response has been been coordinated, structured and efficient as in previous conflicts, say @mercycorps who have a team on the ground.
Many places have not more than 3-4 days worth of food and medicine, and no way to consistently and safely replenish supplies. This may not be a bug but a feature of Russia's invasion strategy.
Read 4 tweets
Christo Grozev Profile picture
Mar 17
As I announced yesterday during the testimony at US Congress's FA subcommittee hearing on war crimes, @bellingcat has just launched a comprehensive tracking website logging each significant incident of civilian harm during Russia's invasion of Ukraine: bellingcat.com/news/2022/03/1…
While our current accountability work focuses on Ukraine it builds on work we've done on Yemen, where we developed a process for archiving and investigation specifically designed to meet the legal requirements of accountability processes yemen.bellingcat.com
Our Ukraine Accountability Team is focused on investigations that follow a rigorous open source investigation process that is designed to capture evidence of our investigation process, as well as specific evidence examined during the investigation.
Read 6 tweets
Christo Grozev Profile picture
Mar 17
Three independent sources report that the deputy chief of Russia's Rosgvardia (a unit of RU's interior army which has had tremendous losses in Ukraine), Gen. Roman Gavrilov has been detained by FSB. Gavrilov had also previously worked in FSO, Putin's security service.
The reason for the detention is unclear: per one source he was detained by FSB's military counter-intelligence department over "leaks of military info that led to loss of life", while two others say it was "wasteful squandering of fuel", ahem.
While it's hard to guess what exactly the purge/reshuffling at the top of the siloviks will result in, one thing is clear: it's doubtless that Putin recognizes the deep s**t this operation is in. I.e. it's so bad that he changes horses in midstream - a big no-no during war.
Read 5 tweets

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