Quick recap for those who haven't followed what's been going on in Ukraine but want to understand:

02/24: The Russians invaded from the south, south-east, east and north, in a lightning campaign.

The Russians invaded with 190K troops—against 250K combat troops from Ukraine.

1/ ImageImageImage
The RF put 30K troops near Kiev—nowhere near enough to capture the city—but enough to pin down some 100K AFU defenders.

The RF also launched several axes of attack, with reinforcements on standby (including a famed 40km long tank column), to see where they might be needed.

2/ Image
Crucially—the Russian's blitz on several axes pre-empted an imminent UKRAINIAN blitzkrieg.

►The AFU had been about to invade the Donbas

This was the immediate motivation for Russia's invasion: To beat them to the punch and scuttle Ukraine's imminent invasion—which they did

3/ Image
Also, by attacking from the north and south, the Russians disrupted weapons supply chain from NATO.

Had the RF only attacked in the east to prevent the AFU invasion of Donbas, there would have been an open corridor for resupply from the West.

Threatening Kiev stopped that.

4/
So the main AFU army was left stranded in east Ukraine, with the rest of the Ukr. forces isolated and pinned down—with no easy resupply from the West

The RF then went about hitting AFU command/control and resupply links, further isolating and immobilizing Ukrainian forces.

5/
The Russians soon nominally controlled land the size of the UK in Ukraine—but it was a tenuous control.

The south of Ukraine was more fully in Russia's grip. The AFU around Kherson simply scattered. Mariupol became a clear battleground, as did the Donbas proper.

6/
What the Russians initially wanted was to:

►Short-circuit the imminent Donbas invasion—which they did.

►Scare the Zelensky regime into negotiating a political settlement—which they failed to do.

7/
Kiev had no intention of negotiating a ceasefire—because of orders given to them from Washington: “Fight Russia to the last Ukrainian!”

Also, the Neo-Nazi goons around Zelensky threatened him if he negotiated and surrendered—because they are terrified of the Russians.

8/
So Zelensky launched a massive PR and propaganda campaign, primarily to motivate AFU forces to fight to the death.

Myths were created (Ghost of Kiev), false flags were carried out (Bucha, Kramatorsk)—and relentless media stories were flogged relentlessly.

9/
The Russians kept negotiating—and trying to NOT destroy Ukraine infrastructure. In fact at first they were even trying to minimize AFU casualties.

The evidence for this is overwhelming: The RF did not hit civilian infrastructure—water, electric, phone, transportation.

10/
They did not hit AFU barracks, command centers, government buildings, etc.

The Russians' initial priority was for a *negotiated settlement*.

But by late March, they realized this was impossible.

11/
This is why the RF withdrew from Kiev. There was no sense putting men near the city when they were not doing what they were supposed to—putting political pressure on the Zelensky regime to negotiate.

This withdrawal was claimed as a “victory” in the “Battle of Kiev”! lmao

12/
Starting in late March, the Russians pulled back and solidified their control over the area they had captured, ceding to the AFU areas that were either pointless to or potentially too costly to control.

The Ukraine propaganda machine called all these pull-backs “victories”.

13/
There was still a glimmer that the war might end in a negotiated settlement—but that ended in early April.

After the Istanbul talks of 3/30, the Ukraine side gingerly agreed to some compromises—but within a week publicly disavowed those concessions.

14/
That's when the Russians realized the Zelensky regime was agreement-incapable: Their Washington masters—Victoria Nuland and Anthony Blinken in particular—wouldn't allow a peace.

They want this war to sap Russia dry. It is a classic proxy war—and Ukraine will pay the price.

15/
Something else the Russians realized: Sanctions.

They hurt—but Russia bounced back with remarkable speed. They didn't really hurt that bad.

But the theft of Russia's $300 billion in foreign reserves by the West DID hurt—badly.

16/
The Russians realized they were in a total war with the West—and since their foreign reserves were lost forever (likely to be pilfered by corrupt Western politicos), the Russians now have nothing left to lose.

By stealing their reserves, the West lost all power over Russia.

17/
This has sealed Ukraine's fate:

The Russians now have no incentive to give up what they have conquered. It has cost them too much—in terms of men and treasure.

And they know that they can't negotiate a ceasefire—the Zelensky regime will simply break it later.

Which means—

18/
The Russians intend to conquer and permanently annex all the south and east of Ukraine.

This is why their strategy on the battlefield has dramatically shifted: Now they are carrying out a slow, methodical grinding down and destruction of the AFU.

19/
The war in the first 30 days was speed—feints—nominally capturing vast swathes of Ukraine territory, with the aim of pressuring the Zelensky regime into a negotiated settlement.

But the West's total financial and political break with Russia means they have nothing to lose.

20/
And they have a lot to gain: The Donbas is mineral rich, the really productive farmlands of Ukraine are in the east and south, Kharkov is a major industrial city, the Sea of Azov has untold natural gas reserves.

And besides—the people love them.

21/ Image
Why would the Russians now give up this hard-won prize?

And they *have* won—make no mistake. Ask any military man who is not a system pig, he'll tell you: There is no way for the AFU to retake their country. They have no armor, no air defense, no fuel, no comms—it's over.

22/ Image
The great tragedy is that so many THOUSANDS of young men will die—and die NEEDLESSLY!!—in order to postpone the inevitable.

These brave boys will have fought so valiantly—and died so young, so cruelly—because of the evil of the Zelensky regime.

That's the hard truth.

23/ Image
And in the end, this will be the map that will remain—a bitter image of Ukraine's future.

Russia will pour billions into their newly acquired territory. It will prosper and flourish.

But the rump-state of Ukraine will be left poor, destroyed, forgotten—

A tragedy.

24/24 Image

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More from @GonzaloLira1968

Aug 7
These documents have been leaked (deliberately?) by the Ukraine Armed Forces, and seem to be genuine. A huge number of Ukraine eyeballs have been on them via Telegram channels — but no one has seriously disputed their authenticity.

What they reveal is horrifying.

1/8
According to these documents, the Ukraine Armed Forces have lost 191,000 men between killed in action and wounded in action. Assuming a 3 to 1 ratio, that would mean 50,000 men have died, and 140,000 are wounded seriously enough to be incapacitated either to fight or to work.

2/
The missing in action are NOT being accounted for. These MIA could be killed in action, prisoners of war held by the Russians, or deserters. It is estimated that they are 50% of that 191,000 number. That is about 95,000 men who are unaccounted for.

3/
Read 9 tweets
Aug 6
The Amnesty International report is a very big deal — it signals the Western Regime has turned on Zelensky.

Anyone who knows anything about the Ukraine conflict knows already that the Zelensky regime was using civilian infrastructure to hide from and bait the Russian army.

1/8
The fact that Amnesty is suddenly now reporting this in a widely covered report is what matters.

Amnesty long ago was co-opted by Regime-affiliated intelligence agencies. It is now used as another NGO to destabilize foreign countries under the guise of “muh human rights!”

2/
All the Western NGOs were fawning over Zelensky — hard — for the last 5 1/2 months.

But all of a sudden, mainstream news sources are starting to criticize him, and Amnesty is leading the way in condemning him for human rights violations.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Aug 6
I’m going to do an experiment here on Twitter, and I would appreciate your assistance.

I’m going to make a thread to see if this has an impact on the Twitter algorithm.

First off, please deliberately like this first tweet of this thread — I’ll explain why below.

1/12
Something I’ve noticed is that whenever I do a thread on any topic, I get a big bump in followers.

I don’t necessarily get a lot of *likes*, much less retweets — but I do get more followers.

2/
I noticed this with my first few long threads about the war in Ukraine. I thought at the time it was because people were interested in the topic. However, when I did threads on other, completely unrelated issues, I got that same big follower bump.

3/
Read 12 tweets
Jul 31
A lot of Americans virulently disagreed with my assessment/thought experiment about a war with China.

One group said that I was just stupid. But they didn’t have the brains to tell me why I was wrong.

The ones who DID give a rationale—those were the interesting responses.

1/15
Some of those people said I was wrong because they pointed out that the US would use nukes immediately.

This actually proves my point — the US military is a paper tiger, and cannot fight or let alone defeat a peer competitor without immediately resorting to nuclear weapons.

2/
Another group insisted I was wrong because they said the US would impose a total blockade on China.

They don’t seem to realize that that was the point of the Belt and Road Initiative: For China to have another way to trade and get supplies in case of a US naval blockade.

3/
Read 15 tweets
Jul 30
If I were China, watching Pelosi’s plane cross the Pacific, this is what I would be thinking.

The Americans want a war with me. They will keep provoking and provoking me until I react.

Therefore, I should strike when the US least expects it — which would be right now.

1/13
If I’m China, then I would sink the USS Ronald Reagan and simultaneously hit the US bases in Japan, Guam, and everywhere else within range of my missiles — including Hawaii.

I hit the US bases — and I hit them with absolutely everything I’ve got short of nuclear weapons.

2/
I know that the US depends on me, China, for just about everything in their economy. So I completely cut them out. Zero trade, effective immediately.

I tell my people that we are in an existential war with the Americans — it’s us or them.

3/
Read 13 tweets
Jul 30
A thread of informal polls for people in the West (Europe, US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand), about your leaders — please answer them all.

1. Do you think your leaders in the West REPRESENT you? That is, do you think your leaders come from the same cultural background as you?
2. Do you think your leaders in the West RESPECT you? That is, do you think your leaders hold you in esteem, and value your good opinion of them?
3. Do you think your leaders in the West CARE for your well-being? That is, do you think your leaders worry about your situation, are concerned for you and your family?
Read 12 tweets

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