Thread by @DadBodFS

We received requests and feedback about our last touches report asking to see the full pool of RBs and their total touches. Also, requests for more years of data due to strength of the 2017 rb draft class and not much talent coming in the early 2010s from the RB position.

Before I present the data, I want you to remember that the nfl has changed drastically through the decade, especially for the RB position. So here we have our full unbiased 2011-2021 (11 seasons) RB touches report. A THREAD:

We look at all RBs with that have been drafted in fantasy football, or have an ADP. When mentioning ADP in this thread, it’s important to note we are referring to ADP among RBs. (I.E ADP of 5 means 5th rb off the board) Here's how many RBs have been drafted in fantasy by year:

In 2011 - 54 RBs
In 2012 - 56 RBs
In 2013 - 58 RBs
In 2014 - 57 RBs
In 2015 - 60 RBs
In 2016 - 57 RBs
In 2017 - 61 RBs
In 2018 - 58 RBs
In 2019 - 61 RBs
In 2020 - 63 RBs
In 2021 - 63 RBs

In this, we will be looking at a total of 648 seasons of RBs. The average amount of touches for a top 10 season is 304. So we will look at intervals of 300 total touches for our data.

In our 0-300 total touches, we had 281 RBs. Of those 281 RBs we had 35 finish in the top 10 of RBs, or 12.5%. Of that 35 RBs, all of them outperformed/performed their ADP. There were 15 RBs that finished top 5 of RBs, or 5.3%. Of that 15, all outperformed/performed their ADP.

In our 301-600 total touches we have 124 RBs. Of these 124 RBs we had 19 finish in the top 10 of RBs, or 15.3%. Of the 19, we had 17 outperform/performed their ADP. There were 12 RBs that finished top 5 of RBs, or 9.7%. Of that 12, all outperformed/performed their ADP

In our 601-900 total touches we have 85 RBs. Of these 85 RBs we had 15 RBs finish top 10 of RBs, or 17.6%. Of the 15, we had 12 outperform their ADP. There were 11 RBs that finished top 5 of RBs, or 12.9%. Of the 11, 9 RBs outperformed their ADP.

In our 901-1200 total touches we have 59 RBs. Of these 59 RBs, we had 13 RBs finish top 10, or 22%. Of that 13, we had 10 that outperformed/performed their ADP. There were 6 RBs that finished top 5 of RBs, or 10.1%. Of that 6, we had 5 outperform/performed ADP.

In our 1201-1500 total touches we have 33 RBs. Of these 33 RBs, we had 8 RBs finish top 10, or 24%. Of that 8, we had 5 that outperformed their ADP. There were 4 RBs that finished top 5 of RBs, or 12.1%. Of that 4, we had 3 outperform ADP.

In our 1501-1800 total touches we have 27 RBs. Of these 27 RBs, we had 6 RBs finish top 10, or 22.2%. Of that 6, we had 5 that outperformed their ADP. There were 4 RBs that finished top 5 of RBs, or 14.8%. Of that 4, all outperformed ADP.

In our 1800+ total touches we have 39 RBs. Of these 39 RBs, we had 9 RBs finish top 10, or 23%. Of that 9, we had 6 that outperformed/performed their ADP. There were 4 RBs that finished top 5 of RBs, or 10%. Of that 4, we had 3 outperform/performed their ADP.

Quick summary of RB top 10 in each TT category:

Quick summary of RB top 5 in each TT category:

And a bonus breakdown of top 24 RBs in each TT category:

I want to view the data as one other way. In 11 seasons of data, here have been 15 different RBs that have placed top 10 over 1200 total touches. And only 8 different RBs over 1200 total touches in the top 5.

In the 1201-1500 total touches the 8 RBs are:

Arian Foster (2014)
DeMarco Murray (2016)
Ezekiel Elliot (2020)
Jamal Charles (2014)
Marshawn Lynch (2012)
MJD (2011)
Ray Rice (2012)
Reggie Bush (2013)

In the 1501-1800 total touches the 6 RBs are:

Adrian Peterson (2012)
Chris Johnson (2013)
DeAngelo Williams (2015)
Ezekiel Elliot (2021)
Marshawn Lynch (2013)
Matt Forte (2013)

In the 1800+ total touches the 9 RBs are:

Adrian Peterson (2013, 2015)
Frank Gore (2012)
Lesean McCoy (2016, 2017)
Marshawn Lynch (2014)
Matt Forte (2014, 2015)
Steven Jackson (2011)

If we look at the data taking using the total number of RBs drafted (648), the story looks a little different. Understandably so, for two reasons: the nfl pushes out older RBs and as a fantasy community we look to draft the younger backs who are typically more durable.

I did the numbers to show what it looks like for each total touches group:

We are at a big year for some of these aging RBs to better determine what the future looks for the RB position in the NFL. Is the RB position drastically changing or have we been in an RB cycle? Consider all the data points when evaluating top talent at the position.

#fantasyfootball #nfl #RB #football