Thread by @RadioFreeTom

If Putin insanely decides that this is a war for the survival of Russia, then we are faced with World War III. Not the rhetorical World War III loosely talked about now, but the real thing, including the deaths of hundreds of millions - in both conventional and nuclear war. /1

https://twitter.com/MMazarr/status/1519160793790656513

This could happen because of how badly the Russian military and Putin have screwed everything up. But if the only alternative is "surrender Ukraine and then all of Europe," then the world will have to fight it. It will be Russia's choice. There is no policy that will stop it. /2

There are alternatives and Putin may yet satisfy himself with his limited gains. But those of you saying "bring it on" don't know what you're talking about, and you don't understand what all of us will endure, together, if the Russians are stupid enough to go this road. /3

The choice to escalate now rests in Moscow. It would be one more ridiculous gamble added to a pile of idiotic strategic miscalculations, but all we can do is help Ukraine defend itself and make clear that there is no day that ends better for Russia than the day before. /4

But if you're an American whose biggest gripe right now is the price of gas or your student loans or inflation, I understand that we live day to day, but this is the most serious thing in the world and you should be paying attention to it. /5

I'm already seeing a lot of responses piling on here about "Glory to Ukraine" and "Putin has to go" and the usual stuff. You can just stop that right now; the only thing that matters is ending this war before it finally burns out of control. Diplomats are doing their best. /6

This war will end with a victory, in the sense that Ukraine will continue to survive. What compromises Zelensky will have to make, I can neither predict nor advise. But there will almost certainly be compromises. /7

I don't what the probabilities are of a major escalation. I doubt the Russians know either. This entire crisis is the result of a bunch of gangsters just winging it when a deluded dictator thought he could grab an entire country on the cheap. This is all improv now. /8

But before you go shooting your mouths off about "taking out Putin" or "it's inevitable, just fight them," you might want to let that go. The next decision rests not with us, but with Moscow. We need to be determined and calm and ready. That's all we can do. /9x