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Apr 28 • 14 tweets • 6 min read
Senior U.S. defense officials wrapped up a briefing a little while ago with an update on Russia's war in Ukraine. It's now Day 64.

Here's what we learned, including new details on Biden's blockbuster new military aid package and Russia's continued push on Donbas.
First off, let's do a brief state of play

The U.S. believes Russia is trying to advance past Izyum toward Kramatorsk, & trying to branch out "more to the southeast" from Crimea.

🇷🇺 NOW has 92 battalion tactical groups in 🇺🇦, and 20 more waiting in 🇷🇺.
Russia's progress remains "slow and uneven" U.S. officials believe.

They can only move a few miles a day, for fear of outpacing their supply lines, like we saw in the (failed) lighting advance on Kyiv.
Russia is also STILL wary of getting planes shot down by still active Ukrainian defenses, with S-300s & German air defense tanks arriving too.

Ukraine's airspace remains "contested" on Day 64 and most Russian strikes are coming from outside 🇺🇦 or at sea
Russia has added about 10 BTGs into Ukraine in the past week-plus, U.S. officials believe.

And Russia is taking "significant" numbers of troops out of besieged Mariupol, in a possible attempt to double down on the Donbas fight. 🇷🇺 had ~12 BTGs there.
U.S.-trained 🇺🇦 officers and 🇺🇸 weapons are surging onto the battlefield.
• 60 % of 90 US howitzers now in 🇺🇦
• US training MORE 🇺🇦 advisors on howitzers, armored vehicles, radars, and sea drones OUTSIDE 🇺🇦
• Biden wants $16b more in 🇺🇦 military aid

For those keeping track at home, that would bring U.S. military aid to Ukraine up to NEARLY $20 billion since Russia's invasion – if Congress OK's Biden's request.

That's nearly $18 billion in U.S. mil aid or asks for Ukraine in the last two weeks alone.
But we may not be getting a ton more information on where U.S. weapons provided to Ukraine are going on the battlefield – or how effective they are. That's a big U.S. blind spot in this war.

The U.S. is NOT tracking weapons once they cross the border.
The battle for Mariupol isn't over, despite some 🇷🇺 troops leaving. 🇷🇺 is still hitting the city with withering airstrikes.

🇷🇺 12 BTGs are moving north & NW out of the city. Those units may have had 600-800 troops each at the war's start (not clear now)
🇷🇺 is preparing more conscripts for the fight in 🇺🇦, U.S. believes, but they are still suffering from morale issues.

🇷🇺 major May 9th WWII parade is just 11 days away, a possible mobilization date

🇷🇺 Wagner group paramilitaries are also active in Donbas
🇷🇺 has also recruited fighters from Middle East & North Africa, the senior U.S. defense official said. It's not clear how many – if any – have made it to the battlefield

🇺🇸 is worried that 🇷🇺 atrocities continue, including putting 🇺🇦 in 'filtration camps'
Here's more info the U.S. is collecting on Russian atrocities in Ukraine – including new reports of 🇷🇺 filtration camps in besieged Mariupol, which is now mostly controlled by the invading force. Very sickening.

🇷🇺 also planning referendum in Kherson.
Also on tap for today, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will meet with his Canadian counterpart at the Pentagon.

Canada – which has one of the world's largest Ukrainian diaspora communities – is providing M777 howitzers and long-range rounds to Ukraine. Stay tuned.
That's it. Here's my latest in @ForeignPolicy on the drone war we're seeing in the Donbas.

And don't forget to follow my colleagues @RobbieGramer, @ak_mack, @columlynch, and @christinafei who all have stories coming out about the war today and tomorrow.
foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/27/dro…

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More from @JackDetsch

Jack Detsch Profile picture
Apr 29
DoD’s top spokes was just asked if the US still believed Putin was “rational” after invading Ukraine

John Kirby gave an answer lasting several minutes, pausing with emotion over the tragic war.

“I can’t talk to his psychology, but we can all speak to his depravity,” Kirby said. Image
Kirby, who attained the rank of rear admiral in the US Navy, said he has lost friends in combat.

Images of Russian atrocities in Ukraine give lie to Putin’s “B.S.” about defending Russians and stopping nazism.

“None of them, none of them, were threatened by Ukraine,” he said. Image
Kirby said it is “hard to square” Putin’s rhetoric of protecting Russians with what Putin is “actually doing to innocent people, shot in the back of the head, hands tied behind their backs.”

The killings of pregnant women and the bombings of hospitals are “just unconscionable.” Image
Read 4 tweets
Jack Detsch Profile picture
Apr 29
Senior U.S. defense officials wrapped up a briefing a little while ago with an update on Russia's war in Ukraine. It's now Day 65.

Here's what we learned, including new U.S. military aid flights to the region and Russia's (lack of) progress in Donbas.
Russia launched about 50 missiles into Ukraine over the past 24 hours, a senior U.S. defense official said, although thick clouds over Donbas has mitigated American visibility.

50 missiles is about the avg launches per day around the mid-March timeframe
U.S. sanctions & export controls have taken a bite out of Russia's ability to restock PGMs, because it can't get high-tech components from abroad.

So Russia is dropping dumb bombs on Mariupol, even as some 🇷🇺 units move north out of the city.
Read 14 tweets
Jack Detsch Profile picture
Apr 28
NEW: The Taliban has been parading through Kabul with some of $7B in weapons & equip left behind after the US military exit

Some US officials & fmr Afghan officials fear Taliban could NOW use US-provided rifles or surveillance drones (w/ @RobbieGramer)
foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/28/the…
There are more than 250,000 automatic rifles, 95 drones, and more than a million mortar rounds that require little training to use, officials familiar told us.

If the Taliban don’t use them, the cash-starved militant group could pass them on to U.S. adversaries or terror groups
In recent weeks, the Taliban have been seen parading through the streets of Afghanistan in US armored vehicles that were first provided to the Afghan army.

The US left 23,825 Humvees in Afghanistan, including armored gun truck variants & nearly 900 combat vehicles
Read 6 tweets
Jack Detsch Profile picture
Apr 28
DATA: A cumulative total of U.S. military aid to Ukraine since Russia's Feb. 24 invasion.

February 25: $350m
March 12: $550m
March 16: $1.35b
April 1: $1.65b
April 5: $1.75b
April 13: $2.55b
April 21: $3.35b
April 24: $3.67b
April 28: $14.67b (if approved by Congress)
I previously tweeted the total would be almost $20B, based on a senior defense official saying that $16B of the new package would be military aid.

But $11B of new package is destined for 🇺🇦, while another $5B off to NATO Eastern Flank nations.
Here's the full breakdown of the money provided earlier by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin
Read 4 tweets
Jack Detsch Profile picture
Apr 28
NEW: US has information that Russia is planning for a forced capitulation of Ukraine’s democratic elected government “dissolving all local municipal governments”: US official

US ambassador to OSCE Michael Carpenter said 🇷🇺 has set up new govt structures in occupied territories.
Carpenter, cont’d: “Plans for a new government & new constitution are being developed by Russian officials … This planning includes a moratorium disallowing legitimate [🇺🇦] leaders & those supporting [🇺🇦] legitimate government from any leadership positions.”
Read 4 tweets
Jack Detsch Profile picture
Apr 25
Senior U.S. officials wrapped up a briefing this morning describing how the Biden admin sees Russia's war in Ukraine on day 61 – two months in.

Here are some of the highlights, including U.S. diplomats returning to Ukraine and what's next for DoD military aid.
U.S. diplomats will return to Ukraine by next Monday, a senior State Department official said. U.S. is accelerating planning to return diplomats to the embassy in Kyiv “as soon as possible.”

This isn't a permanent basis. U.S. diplomats in Poland will do "day trips" into Ukraine.
The U.S. day trips into Ukraine will allow face-to-face coordination "more easily," State Dept official said. As the frequency of the trips go up, consular ops will be on the table.

The U.S. will ultimately graduate to resuming operations in Kyiv depending on security situation
Read 22 tweets

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