Thread by @rapplerdotcom

NOW: Rappler’s @piaranada talks with political scientist @CleveArguelles on what went wrong in presidential bet Isko Moreno’s campaign and how they can fix it. #PHVote #WeDecide

Watch this #RapplerTalk interview here:

@piaranada @CleveArguelles .@CleveArguelles: My personal assessment is they stopped believing in what could have been their campaign message. #RapplerTalk

@piaranada @CleveArguelles .@CleveArguelles: When Isko declared his candidacy, they were trying to position him as a centrist alternative candidate who doesn’t want to be involved in partisan politics, who would rather focus on pandemic recovery and social services. There was a lot of potential there.

@piaranada @CleveArguelles .@CleveArguelles: But around late 2021 to early 2022, we started seeing a shift in his campaign message. He’s trying to court the Duterte voters…he was positioning himself as PRRD 2.0 who can continue the projects of the Duterte admin. He wanted to get Duterte's endorsement.

@piaranada @CleveArguelles .@CleveArguelles: He’s also trying to portray himself as the credible opposition to the Liberal Party and the traditional “dilawan” camps. #RapplerTalk

@piaranada @CleveArguelles .@CleveArguelles: That really started the problem in his campaign, and that’s why since then, his numbers haven’t picked up. I think these campaign shifts from centrist, to opposition, to close to the admin have been confusing to the voters. #RapplerTalk

@piaranada @CleveArguelles .@CleveArguelles: Without consideration of the political context, there’s always the promise that a centrist candidate would be able to hit two different polarized camps, and that would make that candidate the credible alternative. But this is the Philippine elections.

@piaranada @CleveArguelles .@CleveArguelles: If your messaging is “Iba naman…’wag naman mga Marcos, ‘wag naman mga dilawan”... Political families have been winning in PH elections the past century. You can’t really undo that in just one election cycle. #RapplerTalk

@piaranada @CleveArguelles .@CleveArguelles: The messaging is actually saying that the problem in this country is a political one, and that involves that political elites are running the show. But I’m not sure if there’s a big constituency to that because our elections are run by political families.

@piaranada @CleveArguelles .@CleveArguelles: If it would’ve been a Grace Poe centrist candidacy — not a political but a personality kind… Unfortunately personality-driven ang PH elections, and if the promise of being a centrist is packaged in that kind of language, it would’ve been more effective.

@piaranada @CleveArguelles How come that messaging worked with President Duterte? @CleveArguelles: ‘Yan din 'yung example ng development in PH politics — it could happen once, and if others would try to copy it, poor copies na lang silang lahat. Even the daughter (Sara Duterte) is not Duterte-ing herself.

@piaranada @CleveArguelles .@CleveArguelles: There’s only one Rodrigo Duterte. Any other candidate who would try to do [his campaign message] would just appear inauthentic. When Isko tried to become a Duterte, that’s how voters received it. #RapplerTalk

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@piaranada @CleveArguelles How come bringing up Marcos' P203B estate tax and asking Robredo to withdraw weren’t effective?

@CleveArguelles: If you attack Marcos Jr. on something about corruption or tax issues, the next question is if you’re a credible alternative. #RapplerTalk

@piaranada @CleveArguelles .@CleveArguelles: And I’m not sure that Moreno could portray himself as the alternative if the framing of the issue is about money. He has money issues as well, like his excess campaign funds before.

RELATED STORY: rappler.com/nation/electio…

@piaranada @CleveArguelles .@CleveArguelles: You only attack your opponent if it uplifts your own candidacy.... I would’ve appreciated it if Isko attacked Marcos Jr. on his other accomplishments like infrastructure, social services. Moreno delivered on these areas...that would’ve highlighted his strengths.

@piaranada @CleveArguelles .@CleveArguelles: With Robredo, his first attack was her supposedly abandoning LP for using pink as her campaign color…. Credible alternative ka ba to accuse someone na papalit-palit ng color? Na-highlight tuloy ‘yung [pagpapalit-palit niya ng party before].

@piaranada @CleveArguelles RELATED STORY: rappler.com/nation/isko-mo…

@piaranada @CleveArguelles .@CleveArguelles on Moreno’s camp being positive on his chances to win because of being a top second choice in Pulse Asia surveys: I disagree on their interpretation. #RapplerTalk

@piaranada @CleveArguelles .@CleveArguelles: From a numbers perspective, you are the top second choice precisely because pangatlo ka eh. ‘Yung top 2 ay ‘yung first choice ng magkaibang camps... We’re not voting for second choices naman on election day. #RapplerTalk

@piaranada @CleveArguelles .@CleveArguelles: If VP Leni has a ceiling, we’ve seen in recent weeks how Leni has shattered this ceiling. It’s only a question of how fast she can catch up to Marcos Jr. If you compare it to Isko, ‘di na siya nakaalis sa current numbers niya.

@piaranada @CleveArguelles .@CleveArguelles: We haven't really seen Isko attempt to portray his campaign as in opposition to the Marcos Jr. campaign.... For those who are anti-Marcos, you can only be a credible anti-Marcos if you will definitely say you are anti-Marcos.

@piaranada @CleveArguelles .@CleveArguelles: I think if it had been a Marcos-Moreno fight, the landscape wouldn’t have been a Marcos vs Aquino or Marcos vs dilawan. It would’ve been a question of who could better continue the programs of the Duterte admin. #RapplerTalk

@piaranada @CleveArguelles .@CleveArguelles on failed unity talks and what could have been: It would’ve been really ideal if Isko and Leni ran together as a tandem…. Isko as VP would’ve contributed a little more votes kasi mas fresh and may constituency. Isko would’ve also enjoyed the support Leni has.

@piaranada @CleveArguelles .@CleveArguelles: There were also observations that Isko is too young…he would’ve avoided those concerns if he partnered with a veteran. It would’ve been more logical with him as a mayor if the vice presidency was his next step. But then he’s trying to pull off a Duterte.

@piaranada @CleveArguelles .@CleveArguelles: President Duterte had also been a mayor for a long time. Isko has only served one term as mayor. #RapplerTalk

@piaranada @CleveArguelles .@CleveArguelles on the joint Easter Sunday press con: There was a strategic value, but not for Isko’s campaign…. There was strategic value for the frontrunner. #RapplerTalk

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@piaranada @CleveArguelles .@CleveArguelles: If the intention is to attract votes from VP Leni, I don’t think he’ll be able to do that by saying her campaign is not viable. She’s drawing super huge crowds, that means these people are voters, they’re inspired and they want her to win.

@piaranada @CleveArguelles .@CleveArguelles: Isko positioned himself as an anti-dilawan candidate, but he didn't really offer reasons why Marcos Jr. isn’t the best candidate. That’s why I highly doubt that the strategic value of that press con was for himself. #RapplerTalk

@piaranada @CleveArguelles A few days before the elections, how can the Isko camp improve his chances? @CleveArguelles: They have to go back to the original motivation, the initial message that drove people to consider Isko as a presidential candidate. #RapplerTalk

@piaranada @CleveArguelles .@CleveArguelles: Isko was talking about the government’s slow and ineffective pandemic response and he showed that he could do it better…. Now it has moved to “two joints”, “peace of mind” — medyo lumayo from what I thought was a promising campaign.

@piaranada @CleveArguelles .@CleveArguelles: Isko could’ve chosen to be a non-political candidate…. In an environment too toxic and polarized, sometimes you need a boring one who just focuses on the problems and issues. But he became the most political, na may pinakamaanghang na sinabi sa ibang kandidato.

@piaranada @CleveArguelles Is it too late for Isko to go back to his original messaging? @CleveArguelles says yes: Ilang messaging na ang kanyang nagamit. With what he’s said and done in his campaign, if he now says, “Choose me para iwas toxic,” it would not be authentic, magkakaroon ng mismatch.

@piaranada @CleveArguelles And that’s a wRap! Rewatch this #RapplerTalk interview in full here: rappler.com/nation/electio…