Ofc I have no idea if stocks will be up 5% next month or down 5% next month,
and ofc rising interest rates and high commodity prices are not a drag on the economy and sentiment,
but the 'real' economy and the new and growing parts of the economy - all that stuff is great.
There are many really good companies whose stocks are selling at very reasonable prices, and I think it's a good idea to be buying.
Lots of recent bad ideas (dumb start-ups, story stocks, SPACs) etc. are getting woodshedded, and there are real losses of financial capital there.
But you know what happens when a bad business goes under and people lose financial capital? There's a huge unlocking of human capital and physical capital. Everyone who worked on those bad ideas was spinning their wheels, wasting time or worse. Just the act of moving over -
just taking the fired employees of a dumb company and having them go work literally anywhere else in the world - that makes our whole world more prosperous.
It's that whole "genius of capitalism" thing. And I'm kind of excited about it :-)
The real point of Berkshire Hathaway is Buffett is an extremely talented guy who not only made a lot of money, but did it in a way that made a huge difference for other people.
The first can be said of less than 1% of all businessmen, and the second can be said of even fewer.
If you think you could have done better by buying one thing earlier or not buying one thing later, you're probably 100% right about that one thing - and 90% wrong about everything else that matters in that picture.
We should all be trying to do a lot better than they're doing now, but hardly any of us, anyone we know, or anyone they know will do as well as Buffett's first 10 years, his second 10 years, his third, etc.
I've been thinking a lot about long-term underperformance by "good" stock-pickers.
Consider the story of Mark Sellers, who blew up an amazing track record on one bet, and I just want to track that story.
I got into stocks around 2010, and I've only ever heard of one person mention Mark Sellers, but he had a great run:
The story my friend tells is about watching Sellers talk at a value investing conference and say that according to the Kelley Criterion, most people way under bet and he was sizing his fund's position in Contango Oil & Gas $MCF at something like 80% based on yada yada yada.
Thoughts on the $AMC token/NFT dividend idea from a short-seller:
I'm short $AMC so a friend of mine sent me something about Marc's suggestion to have $AMC issue an NFT or Token dividend, which presumably shorts such as myself would have to then cover.
The goal of this would be to force a short squeeze (root out ("naked shorts"?).
First of all since I know this is coming, I can just make plans to own shares during the dividend period. I could finance those by selling expensive options - which are entirely by supported trading activity driven by #Apes.