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Apr 29 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
Senior U.S. defense officials wrapped up a briefing a little while ago with an update on Russia's war in Ukraine. It's now Day 65.

Here's what we learned, including new U.S. military aid flights to the region and Russia's (lack of) progress in Donbas.
Russia launched about 50 missiles into Ukraine over the past 24 hours, a senior U.S. defense official said, although thick clouds over Donbas has mitigated American visibility.

50 missiles is about the avg launches per day around the mid-March timeframe
U.S. sanctions & export controls have taken a bite out of Russia's ability to restock PGMs, because it can't get high-tech components from abroad.

So Russia is dropping dumb bombs on Mariupol, even as some 🇷🇺 units move north out of the city.
In turn, Russia is trying to hit Ukrainian weapons production facilities, which could make U.S. and European military aid to Ukraine more urgent

🇷🇺 strikes into 🇺🇦 are also increasingly trying to target infrastructure, including shutting down electricity
Russia is DAYS behind schedule in its advance into the Donbas, US officials believe, wary of moving beyond supply lines & facing stiff Ukrainian pushback.

🇷🇺 is trying to make gains south from Izyum toward Donbas & hopes to move on Sloviansk & Kramatorsk
Russia now has 92 BTGs in Ukraine, up about 10 in the last ten days. There are 20 waiting in the wings in Russia.

But not all of these are at full strength, as Russia tries to "set conditions" for a longer offensive in Donbas, U.S. officials believe.
Russia's goals in the Donbas, however, are mostly unchanged: to bite off all of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

A top U.S. diplomat also said yesterday that Russia is moving to depose local governments in an effort to destabilize Zelensky in Kyiv.
U.S. military aid is continuing to flow:
• 12 flights in the NEXT 24 hours, including Howitzers and Phoenix Ghost drones
• 20 deliveries from U.S. and Euros in LAST 24 hours
• 60% of 90 Howitzers in Ukraine
• 100 of 700 Switchblade drones in Ukraine
The U.S. is also doing more training, smaller sessions for the radars than howitzers. The first batch of trainees is already back in Ukraine

In some instances, the U.S. is getting Ukrainian trainees from outside Ukraine to training ranges.
But once these systems go into Ukraine, it's very hard to tell where they're going. The U.S. isn't tracking it and there are NO U.S. boots on the ground.

Still, the U.S. believes howitzers will be a difference maker for the Ukrainians.
The U.S. is also sending cyber defenses to the Ukrainians. Ukraine has been hit with lots of wiper malware viruses and defacement attacks from the Russians.

But U.S. has NO talks about giving Ukraine advanced American air defenses, like THAAD or Patriot
The U.S. does NOT believe that Russia will use nuclear weapons in Ukraine despite recent saber-rattling. And the U.S. hasn't raised its own nuclear alert levels.

Recent NATO fighter jet intercepts of 🇷🇺 over the Black and Baltic Seas were "routine"
But still, the U.S. is expecting a "prolonged" fight in the Donbas as Russia moves more capabilities to the border and into the country.

Russia has more troops & shorter supply lines into the Donbas, two potential advantages.
The U.S. is NOT confirming that Russian chief of staff Gen. Valery Gerasimov is in Ukraine.

But Russia has upped bombardments of Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city.

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More from @JackDetsch

Jack Detsch Profile picture
Apr 29
DoD’s top spokes was just asked if the US still believed Putin was “rational” after invading Ukraine

John Kirby gave an answer lasting several minutes, pausing with emotion over the tragic war.

“I can’t talk to his psychology, but we can all speak to his depravity,” Kirby said. Image
Kirby, who attained the rank of rear admiral in the US Navy, said he has lost friends in combat.

Images of Russian atrocities in Ukraine give lie to Putin’s “B.S.” about defending Russians and stopping nazism.

“None of them, none of them, were threatened by Ukraine,” he said. Image
Kirby said it is “hard to square” Putin’s rhetoric of protecting Russians with what Putin is “actually doing to innocent people, shot in the back of the head, hands tied behind their backs.”

The killings of pregnant women and the bombings of hospitals are “just unconscionable.” Image
Read 4 tweets
Jack Detsch Profile picture
Apr 28
NEW: The Taliban has been parading through Kabul with some of $7B in weapons & equip left behind after the US military exit

Some US officials & fmr Afghan officials fear Taliban could NOW use US-provided rifles or surveillance drones (w/ @RobbieGramer)
foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/28/the…
There are more than 250,000 automatic rifles, 95 drones, and more than a million mortar rounds that require little training to use, officials familiar told us.

If the Taliban don’t use them, the cash-starved militant group could pass them on to U.S. adversaries or terror groups
In recent weeks, the Taliban have been seen parading through the streets of Afghanistan in US armored vehicles that were first provided to the Afghan army.

The US left 23,825 Humvees in Afghanistan, including armored gun truck variants & nearly 900 combat vehicles
Read 6 tweets
Jack Detsch Profile picture
Apr 28
DATA: A cumulative total of U.S. military aid to Ukraine since Russia's Feb. 24 invasion.

February 25: $350m
March 12: $550m
March 16: $1.35b
April 1: $1.65b
April 5: $1.75b
April 13: $2.55b
April 21: $3.35b
April 24: $3.67b
April 28: $14.67b (if approved by Congress)
I previously tweeted the total would be almost $20B, based on a senior defense official saying that $16B of the new package would be military aid.

But $11B of new package is destined for 🇺🇦, while another $5B off to NATO Eastern Flank nations.
Here's the full breakdown of the money provided earlier by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin
Read 4 tweets
Jack Detsch Profile picture
Apr 28
Senior U.S. defense officials wrapped up a briefing a little while ago with an update on Russia's war in Ukraine. It's now Day 64.

Here's what we learned, including new details on Biden's blockbuster new military aid package and Russia's continued push on Donbas.
First off, let's do a brief state of play

The U.S. believes Russia is trying to advance past Izyum toward Kramatorsk, & trying to branch out "more to the southeast" from Crimea.

🇷🇺 NOW has 92 battalion tactical groups in 🇺🇦, and 20 more waiting in 🇷🇺.
Russia's progress remains "slow and uneven" U.S. officials believe.

They can only move a few miles a day, for fear of outpacing their supply lines, like we saw in the (failed) lighting advance on Kyiv.
Read 14 tweets
Jack Detsch Profile picture
Apr 28
NEW: US has information that Russia is planning for a forced capitulation of Ukraine’s democratic elected government “dissolving all local municipal governments”: US official

US ambassador to OSCE Michael Carpenter said 🇷🇺 has set up new govt structures in occupied territories.
Carpenter, cont’d: “Plans for a new government & new constitution are being developed by Russian officials … This planning includes a moratorium disallowing legitimate [🇺🇦] leaders & those supporting [🇺🇦] legitimate government from any leadership positions.”
Read 4 tweets
Jack Detsch Profile picture
Apr 25
Senior U.S. officials wrapped up a briefing this morning describing how the Biden admin sees Russia's war in Ukraine on day 61 – two months in.

Here are some of the highlights, including U.S. diplomats returning to Ukraine and what's next for DoD military aid.
U.S. diplomats will return to Ukraine by next Monday, a senior State Department official said. U.S. is accelerating planning to return diplomats to the embassy in Kyiv “as soon as possible.”

This isn't a permanent basis. U.S. diplomats in Poland will do "day trips" into Ukraine.
The U.S. day trips into Ukraine will allow face-to-face coordination "more easily," State Dept official said. As the frequency of the trips go up, consular ops will be on the table.

The U.S. will ultimately graduate to resuming operations in Kyiv depending on security situation
Read 22 tweets

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