Thread by @rogertansey

“Cracks emerge in Russian elite as tycoons start to bemoan invasion” washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/…

“In the two months since Russia invaded Ukraine, the silence — and even acquiescence — of the Russian elite has started to fray.”

The Russian public is #Complicit

“Even as opinion polls report overwhelming public support for the military campaign, amid pervasive state propaganda and new laws outlawing criticism of the war, cracks are starting to show.”

“The dividing lines among factions of the Russian economic elite are becoming more marked, and some of the tycoons — especially those who made their fortunes before President Vladimir Putin came to power — have begun, tentatively, to speak.”

“In one day, they destroyed what was built over many years. It’s a catastrophe,” said one businessman who was summoned along with many of the country’s other richest men to meet Putin on the day of the invasion.”

“The White House further turned the screws on the oligarchs Thursday, announcing a proposal to liquidate their assets and donate the proceeds to Ukraine.”

“At least four oligarchs who made it big in the more liberal era of Putin’s predecessor, President Boris Yeltsin, have left Russia. At least four senior officials have resigned their posts and departed the country.”

“But those in top positions vital to the continued running of the country remain — some trapped, unable to leave even if they wanted to.”

“Most notably, Russia’s mild-mannered and highly regarded central bank chief, Elvira Nabiullina, tendered her resignation after the imposition of Western sanctions, but Putin refused to let her step down.”

“several Russian billionaires, senior bankers, a senior official and former officials. . . described how they and others had been blindsided by their increasingly isolated president. . .”

“. . . and feel largely impotent to influence him because his inner circle is dominated by a handful of hard-line security officials.”

“The complaints aired in public so far are mostly muted and focused primarily on the government’s proposed economic response to the sanctions imposed on Russia by the West.”

“No one has directly criticized Putin.”

“Vladimir Lisin, a steel magnate who made his fortune in the Yeltsin years, slammed a proposal in the Russian parliament to counter sanctions by forcing foreign buyers to pay in rubles for a list of commodities beyond gas.”

“he said the measure risked undermining export markets that Russia “fought for for decades,” warning that “a transfer to payments in rubles will just lead to us being thrown out of international markets.”

“Vladimir Potanin, the owner of the Norilsk Nickel metals plant who was an architect of Russia’s privatizations in the 1990s, warned that proposals to confiscate the assets of foreign companies that exited Russia in the wake of the war. . .”

“. . . would destroy investor confidence and throw the country back to the revolution of 1917.”

“Oleg Deripaska, an aluminum tycoon who also made his initial fortune during the Yeltsin era, has gone furthest, calling the war in Ukraine “insanity,” though he too has focused on the invasion’s economic toll.”

“He has predicted that the economic crisis resulting from the sanctions would be three times worse than the 1998 financial crisis that rocked the Russian economy. . .”

“. . . and he has thrown down the gauntlet to the Putin regime, saying its state capitalism policies of the past 14 years have “led neither to economic growth nor to the growth of the population’s incomes.”

“When 37 of Russia’s wealthiest business executives were called to the Kremlin for the meeting with Putin hours after he launched the war, many of them were depressed and shocked. “Everyone was in a terrible mood,” one participant said. “Everyone was sitting there crushed.”

“I’d never seen them as stunned as they were,” another participant said. “Some of them could not even speak.”

Putin is such an arrogant little prick.

“They’d been kept waiting, as usual, for more than two hours before the president appeared in the Kremlin’s ornate Ekaterininsky Hall — ample time to consider their fate.”

“For some of the executives, as they quietly discussed the consequences of Putin’s war, it was the moment they realized that it was all over for the business empires they’d been building since Russia’s market transition began more than 30 years ago.”

“Some of them said, ‘We’ve lost everything,’ ” one of the participants said.”

“When the president arrived, no one dared issue a whimper of protest.”

“Stone-faced, they listened as Putin assured everyone Russia would remain part of global markets — a promise soon made hollow by the series of Western sanctions — and told them he’d had no other choice than to launch his “special military operation.”

“Since then, Putin has ratcheted up threats against anyone criticizing the war, hastily issuing new laws that include a potential 15-year prison sentence for anyone saying anything the Kremlin deems false about the Russian military.”

In other words, a new set of spies.

“His administration has proposed instituting a new system of deputies in Russia’s ministries to report back to the Kremlin on the “emotional climate and mood.”

“One tycoon said he expected the coming crackdown to be “cannibalistic” compared with the “vegetarian period” of previous years.”

“Putin’s decision to launch a full-scale invasion appears to have stunned not just the billionaires but the breadth of the Russian elite, including senior technocratic officials and some members of the security services.”

“Apart from those directly involved in the preparations, [Defense Minister Sergei] Shoigu, [chief of the army’s general staff Valery] Gerasimov, and some from the FSB, no one knew,” said one of the billionaires.”

“Despite the escalating warnings by U.S. intelligence, many in the Moscow elite had believed Putin was limiting his aims to the separatist areas of eastern Ukraine.”

“Economic and financial officials “thought it would be limited to action in Donetsk and Luhansk and this is what they had prepared for,” the senior official said.”

Surprise, surprise!

“They had prepared for Western sanctions, including a suspension from Swift, the international financial messaging system, he said, “but they hadn’t prepared for this.”

Excellent!

“With casualties mounting and Russian troops forced to turn back from Kyiv, the war is now being viewed with increasing dismay not just by billionaires sanctioned by the West but even by some members of the security establishment.”

“One referred specifically to Shoigu, who took part in the war preparations.”

“They all want to have a normal life. They have homes, children, grandchildren. They don’t need war,” this person said. “They’re all not suicidal. They all want to have a good life. They want their children to have everything and be able to travel to the most beautiful places.”

“The mounting pressure on their foreign bank accounts is a source of particular chagrin for the elite. Even officials who tried to protect themselves by moving their money into accounts belonging to business partners now find that these accounts are blocked”

“Western sanctions to freeze $300 billion — or nearly half — of the Central Bank of Russia’s hard currency reserves left Moscow reeling, including central bank governor Nabiullina, whose resignation attempt was rejected by Putin.”

They really are like the mafia.

“Nabiullina understands very well she can’t just leave. Otherwise, it will end very badly for her.”

“No one can say ‘That’s it’ and then slam the door,” said Vadim Belyaev, the exiled former main owner of Otkritie, Russia’s biggest private bank until its takeover by the state in 2017.”

“Everyone will continue working right up to the next Hague tribunal,” he said, referring to a possible war crimes trial. The central bank has denied that Nabiullina tried to resign.”

“Another former senior state official said he felt a responsibility to remain in Moscow, even though he was taken aback and horrified by the war.”

“If everyone leaves, then who is going to be here to pick up the pieces,” he said. “It’s like working at a nuclear power station. Who is going to run it if you leave? If you leave, then there is a chance it can explode.”

“Apart from these tycoons, there is an army of officials and business executives in Moscow who are not troubled by Russia’s increasing economic isolation as a result of the invasion [and who] have not faulted Putin for going to war.”

“They have complained instead that the army should have been better prepared.”

“On the surface, moreover, the Russian economy has appeared to stabilize since the initial salvo of sanctions, buoyed by estimated revenue of more than $800 million a day from the sale of oil and gas to Europe.”

“The central bank’s policy to force exporters to sell 80 percent of their hard-currency earnings has prevented a ruble implosion, while Putin has declared that the “economic blitzkrieg” against Russia has failed.”

“But earlier this month, Nabiullina warned the impact of sanctions was yet to be fully felt and said the worst was still to come.”

“The manufacturing plants, where “practically every product” depended on imported components, were beginning to run out of supplies, while reserves of imported consumer goods were dwindling, too.”

Just waiting til Europe stops buying your oil.

“We are entering a difficult period of structural changes,” she told parliamentary deputies. “The period during which the economy can live on reserves is finite.”

“In these conditions, Putin’s position is precarious.”

“The population has so far been lulled by the state propaganda machine, which has covered up the level of deaths in the Russian military, as well as by the sanctions’ lack of immediate bite.”

Patience, grasshopper.

“But in three months, the shops and factories will run out of stocks, and the scale of deaths in the Russian military will become clear.”

“Despite the near-fatal blow to their interests, for now, the Russian business elite appears to be still frozen in fear. “I don’t know who has the balls to fight back,” said one of the business executives.”

“But if the war is long, and they begin to lose, then the chances will be greater,” he said.”

Laissez les bon temps roulez!

“There will be a serious battle for Donbas and, if it is not successful, then there will be a big battle inside Russia” among elites.”

Glory to Ukraine!