About a week after the decision to overturn Roe is released, AG Paxton in TX will release an opinion that TX is not bound by Obergefell. 1/n
Within days, Abbott will issue an executive order instructing clerks not to issue new marriage licenses to same sex couples.
He may or may not instruct state officials to cease honoring existing licenses for same sex couples. 2/n
There's likely to be some language about determining legality of marriages based on sex listed on original, un-amended birth certificates.
State courts will affirm legality of Abbott's actions in light of Jackson's Women's Health decision. 3/n
They'll probably win at the District Court level. Regardless, it will get appealed to the 5th Circuit, where Abbott will win, 100% guaranteed. Whereupon it ends up in front of SCOTUS, which has already signaled they regard Obergefell as being on unconstitutional grounds. 4/n
We will see Obergefell die in 2024. The Alliance Defending Freedom (ADF) has been planning this ever since it became apparent that Roe v. Wade was going down. Most conservative state AGs have relationships with the organization. 5/n
I have specific intel that this is the plan for how to expedite the destruction of Obergefell starting in early to mid-July. The official release of the decision starts the clock ticking.
It is unknown when they will begin targeting Lawrence.
Cassandra has spoken. 6/n
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With dogs in the news, and handling of behavioral issues, I thought I'd talk about our experience with difficult dog breeds. Namely: the Siberian husky.
And not just any huskies: every one of ours are behavioral surrenders. 1/n
Loki somebody's Christmas present for their significant other. He, ummm... didn't work out. We got him from the Fairfax County pound in January 2019.
Major behavioral issue: food aggression.
Medical issues: worms, coccidia, giardia, hernia, torn ACL
He's 10k in vet bills. 2/n
Meet Thor. Surrendered at 1 YO b/c owner kept him in a crate all day.
Initial behavioral issues: small dog aggression, fear of loud / chaotic situations / fireworks / firearms. Children made him nervous. Abandonment
Upside: best running buddy ever. And yes, he's judging you 3/n
There's a new anti-trans book out that's been endorsed by JKR. I took a glance at the excerpts, and at the summaries, and realized it's a rehash of a bunch of anti-trans talking points we see coming from Gays Against Groomers and LGB Alliance. 1/n
The basic premise is that transgender people are stealing all the baby gays by forcing them to be transgender. He believes that LGB people are intimidated into supporting trans people. (He blocked me, so....)
The basic premises are not backed up by the facts, however. 2/n
First, there's the notion that transgender activists are forcing all the young gays to transition. If a boy touches a Barbie, or a girl climbs a tree, BAM!, puberty blockers and transition.
The DSM/ICD won't give a GD diagnosis w/o a cross gender ID 3/n
By now, almost everyone has heard that Kristi Noem is a puppy killer (and goat murderer who wasn't particularly good at the job). She killed a 14 month old dog because it wasn't working out as a hunting animal (prey drive too high).
So, I'll qualify this by saying I've got a fair bit of understanding with dogs. I wrote about them for DAME. I've had all sort of breeds of dogs in my life: border collies, shit tzu, poodle, labs, Australian Kelpie, huskies, doberman, mutts. 2/n damemagazine.com/2022/06/16/dog…
I'd also add that I've had a lot of experience with huskies, which are considered notoriously difficult dogs with a high prey drive. On top of that, all three of ours are surrenders who were neglected. Two of them had big behavioral issues. 3/n brynntannehill.medium.com/17-things-you-…
Here's a fun thread for the day. Have you ever wondered what sort of things you have to know in order to fly a military aircraft? Well buckle up, here's an abbreviated list of just some of the unclassified stuff. 1/n
First, there's the Operator's Manual. (NATOPS in Navy parlance, the -10 in Army). This has systems, normal and emergency procedures, limitations, and charts for calculating performance. 1392 pages. 2/n books.google.com/books?id=dsxFD…
You have federal flight regulations, contained in the FAR/AIM. This governs all the legal and regulatory aspects of flying (FAR), and then the standardization of everything. AIM is 899 pages. 3/n faa.gov/air_traffic/pu…
I haven't posted in a while about anything Ukraine, but this is sort of bizarre enough in how it touches on pre-WWI naval history that I thought it was worth a post.
TL;DR - Ukraine hit a REALLY old Russian ship with a Neptune ASM. 1/n
The Kommuna is definitely a valid target. It is a submarine tender / rescue / salvage ship that was used to recover items from the sunken Moskva, and support Kilo Class diesel-electric subs in the Black Sea Fleet. 2/n
What's really interesting about the Kommuna is it is (or was) the oldest active military ship in service in the world. It was laid down in November 1912, and commissioned in July 1915. That's 119 years. 3/n
@ijbailey @CathyYoung63 @djsnyder22 You know what can't be dismissed? Statistics and data. The NCAA has allowed trans people to participate if they meet certain medical criteria since 2011. There were approximately 768 athletes in the women's tournament (12*64). Trans people are .6% of the pop.
@ijbailey @CathyYoung63 @djsnyder22 If you assume that trans women are equal to cis people, you would expect about 5 trans people to be in the tournament. There were zero. The odds of there being only zero was .9%. (Very low). In fact, for the whole of the NCAA, trans people are only about .035% of athletes.
@ijbailey @CathyYoung63 @djsnyder22 This is about one seventteenth of the expected value if trans athletes were merely equal, and not superior. The notion that trans athletes following the NCAA guidelines will take over and dominate women's sport has been tested in the real world and disproven already.