A healthy healthcare professional friend in her 30s (vaccinated x 3) successfully avoided COVID for two years by taking sensible precautions within her control, assisted by sensible collective protections in place for much of this period.
That all changed on March 21st with the removal of mask mandates in schools and other protections in Ontario.
Within two weeks, one of her young children (vaccinated x 2) was infected with SARS-CoV-2 and brought it home, infecting the whole family including her husband (vaccinated x 3) and two other children not yet eligible for vaccination.
She learned after the fact there had been cases in her child’s class but she had not been notified. Her child was literally the only one in her class still wearing a mask.
Only ~1/3 of 5-11yo Ontario children have received two vaccine doses - a result of the complete failure of officials to communicate their value.
Choosing not to wear a mask and remaining unvaccinated are not self-regarding risks. @DFisman
Her child, though she had courageously continued to mask among maskless classmates, was distraught with guilt and frequently woke in the night expressing concern that one or more of her parents or siblings could die as a result of their illness and it would be “her fault.”
No doubt wonderful for her mental health, poor thing.
Thankfully, with the exception of losing her sense of taste and smell, my friend and her family all experienced their initial SARS-CoV-2 infection as a flu-like illness.
“Mild.”
That’s the end of the story, right?
Wrong.
Two weeks later she began to experience right lower quadrant abdominal pain etc, and presented to hospital with appendicitis. By the time they were able to take her to the OR, her appendix had ruptured.
There is an association of SARS-CoV-2 with appendicitis.
Then, within a few weeks of her COVID illness and one week after surgery she began to experience pleuritic chest pain, shortness of breath and lightheadedness and returned to the ED where she was diagnosed with a pulmonary embolus.
While estimates vary widely, PE carries a mortality measured in whole number percentage points. Higher if unrecognized/untreated; lower if treated.
Of course, little of this COVID cascade will be reflected in official metrics. Her and her family members’ diagnoses were by RAT. None of her family members were hospitalized, admitted to ICU, or died with their initial COVID illness.
Only hospitalization for/with COVID is being tracked, so subsequent visits to hospital are unlikely to be attributed to COVID, though they are almost certainly related. Loss of her professional services/income. Cost of treatment. Absence from school. Mental health impacts. Etc.
It all began with the shocking abdication of responsibility by multiple leaders and institutions entrusted with a duty to protect the population via collective action under precisely these circumstances.
1/ It's becoming clearer that 10 days of isolation for severe COVID is not sufficient.
In this study, virus was cultured from predominantly NP samples 3-4 weeks after symptom onset. Only 7 of the 87 patients with severe disease were admitted to ICU (i.e. most were on the ward).
2/ Here's another preprint suggesting persistently high viral load in LRT samples through to 10 days following symptom onset (the period sampled though it seems reasonable to extrapolate beyond this given no downward trend) in severe disease:
I wish I had a bigger follow to promote this paper because I think this kind of research is so important. I just joined twitter, so I don't, but I'll try to do my part anyway. Have a look at: medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
They found that HCWs were identified as cases of COVID at a rate 5.5x nonHCWs (range 2-6 mirroring the epidemic curve), and that 9.8% of HCWs likely transmitted to a household contact. Lots of other stuff in here but these were the findings I found most interesting.
I don't think the available data allowed them to adjust for a differential rate of testing, which was almost certainly higher among HCWs, though I doubt 5.5x higher. On the other hand, the denominator used to calculate rates of identified cases in HCWs was probably over-inclusive