Tresa Undem Profile picture
May 6, 2022 25 tweets 9 min read Read on X
HEY REPORTERS: What to know when interpreting polling on abortion over the next week - it'll be confusing🧵
1) After 100s of focus groups and scores of surveys on abortion - here's the bottom line rn. About 50% to 75% of adults support abortion rights and access. Among VOTERS, it's higher - about 60% to 75%. Why? They want people having control over these decisions, not the gov't.
2) What you know about opinion comes from very few polls: nyt, wapo, cnn, pew, gallup. These researchers are brilliant, but they only ask surface Qs on abortion. Mostly tracking Qs, which ironically, aren't the Qs to detect major shifts in opinion.
3) Also, these researchers are NOT doing focus groups / qual research - listening to people. So they aren't measuring MANY aspects of opinion on the issue. Here are just a few Qs we've asked - straight from the mouths of ordinary people.
4) The Q below is a no-no in polling - having two concepts in one Q. But we still asked it because it's how people think and talk.
5) As an aside, sometimes I think understanding opinion on abortion is this simple:
6) So, when reporters are only seeing a handful of questions, and the sources come from respected, smart researchers (asking limited Qs from limited views), they are likely to report things like this:
7) And be wrong. A few weeks after this story came out, I had an opportunity to ask this Q 👇(Also repeated it a few months ago - found 77% RV saying no)
8) Do people think abortion is a complex issue, based on each person's circumstances? Absolutely. Do most voters struggle with their position on abortion? They do not.
9) Of course we wouldn't know that - from images alone! (Screenshot from my phone last night). Let alone continuing the (inaccurate) narrative that the country is divided and the issue is polarizing
10) In fact, the country is not divided. Most support Roe, most support access. Most don't think about this issue until election time - because they don't hear about it until then. It's not polarizing. It's just that everyone *thinks* everyone thinks it's polarizing.
11) We're about to see a flurry of polling about Roe, 15 week bans, 6 week bans, etc. My guess is that 95% of these Qs will not ask a key follow-up Q that would entirely change our sense of opinion.....
12) Lemme demonstrate. From our recent poll of voters, we replicated a standard Gallup tracking Q that requires respondents to choose legal or illegal:
13) Then we asked a *follow up* of that 57% who responded "illegal:"
14) Here's what we found - just 38% remain in the illegal camp. 62% say legal or don't pass a law/stay out
15) Here's another example on 15 week bans (see what we learn when offering an explicit "don't know")
16) This is replicating a Marist / Knights of Columbus poll, which produced headlines claiming most Americans want substantial abortion restrictions:
17) When we asked a follow-up, we found a majority of respondents said they do NOT want politicians to pass new laws that reflect their response in previous question (!!). view.publitas.com/perryundem-res…
18) Another example of how these tracking polls get it wrong: Gallup finds forever the public is "divided" between "pro-choice" and "pro-life" people. But, actually, almost four in ten don't identify with either label (fun survey with @sarahkliff !!)
19) And another:
20) On a side note, what does this mean: "when the woman doesn't want the child for any reason"? And on a side note to a side note, chances are 99% that an older white man wrote this question in about 1973 and it's been asked ever since.
21) So... these data are confusing if you haven't been conducting qualitative research (which 99.9% of people have not!). Because when you listen to what people say, and measure those sentiments, it becomes much clearer - for most, it's about who has power over these decisions.
22) But if you rely only on a handful of survey Qs, you may understandably come to @Nate_Cohn's (inaccurate) conclusion:
23) And you'd miss the forest for the trees - if not be flat out wrong.
24) Finally, what's underpinning opinion? 3 things: Views toward when life begins, control over decisions, and....what else you won't see in these standard polls....views toward women and power:

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Tresa Undem

Tresa Undem Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @teemoneyusa

Jun 23, 2023
🧵What to know about abortion opinion - one year after Dobbs. Unpacking a year's worth of data here.
1) One of the biggest effects of Dobbs: Voting behavior. Abortion became a #1 issue for Dems, independent women, and women of repro age. 64% of first-time midterm voters said Dobbs was the reason they voted (our Dec. poll)
2) Data suggest enthusiasm for anti-abortion candidates has dropped. After the election, Republicans in our poll were 11 points less enthusiastic about voting for anti-abortion candidates- and now more likely to say they don't care.
Read 21 tweets
Jan 31, 2023
🚨 Top results from our new study: Drivers of public opinion - gender edition. Why have women lost their reproductive rights after 50 years? Here's why.

Full report: tinyurl.com/3x3hvn97
1) Context: The best predictors of vote choice relate to views about race and gender. This is from a survey we did with 538 and YouGov predicting vote in the midterm (btw: post-election polling validates)
2) These five items are the most consistent predictors of opinion across 34 different policy issues. In other words, views toward a changing America are central drivers of opinion.
Read 25 tweets
Feb 24, 2022
NEW SURVEY/THREAD: Abortion rights and access will undergo major shifts this year. Here's what to know about public opinion in 2022.
1) Abortion is not just about a political stance. It's something 65% of women of reproductive age (18-44) say they could envision needing. Also: 58% of men can envision a partner needing
2) There’s a big gap in the % of 18 to 44 year olds who would LIKE to have children in the future (53%) and who actually plan to do so (30%). Image
Read 22 tweets
May 19, 2021
THREAD. [NYT] Reporters will continue to misunderstand public opinion on abortion if they only rely on @pewinternet and @Gallup / @GallupPoll tracking Qs. Here's why.
1) Imagine one of the only polling question we used to understand opinion about health care is support or opposition to Obamacare.
2) We'd miss is all sorts of things, such as 74% of voters want the gov't to do MORE to help with costs, most voters want prescription drug reform, many can't afford mental health care, and oh yeah, turns out, most voters actually support most ACA provisions
Read 25 tweets
Apr 14, 2021
THREAD. New @perryundem post-election study released. What to know about the 2020 pres. election, the past 4 years, and where voters are now. BUCKLE UP perryundem.com/wp-content/upl…
1. The election was not about issues - not even a global pandemic nor a national economic crisis.
2. Instead, data suggest voters were driven by four things: a) perceptions of Trump's lies; b) feelings toward Trump ("President Trump cares about people like me" and is "a great example of the American Dream"); c) views toward race / power; d) views toward gender / power
Read 25 tweets
Sep 30, 2019
Is it worth it to come forward to allege sexual harassment or assault? What do voters think? (Must read @rtraister and @irin's pieces this morning)
1) Most voters think our culture does NOT teach women that they can come forward without fear of consequences on their own lives - including 67% of women
2) The exception is Republican men - 55% who said our culture DOES teach women it's safe to speak up view.publitas.com/perryundem-res…
Read 16 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(