Thread by @warmatters

From @konrad_muzyka Ukraine Conflict Monitor:

"We are seeing some similarities between the current situation and successful Ukrainian counterattacks (and raids) in the Donbas during the summer of 2014."
1/
rochan-consulting.com/issue-73-6-may…

"Back then, Russian artillery systems and the deployment of BTGs turned the tide in the conflict & forced UA to withdraw."

2/

"This time, Ukrainian forces are better equipped to deal with these threats and have better ISR capability. Ukrainian SOF or even artillery systems can engage Russian troops on the other side of the border, thus limiting their strike capability."

3/

"More importantly, it seems that the Russian presence is again overstretched as they cannot push south of Izyum and stop Ukrainian units north of Kharkiv simultaneously."

4/

"the Ru force density ratio is insufficient to break through UA defences. In other words, despite deployments of forces previously fighting in northern Ukraine (Kyiv, Cherkikiv, Sumy), Moscow still has too few units to achieve operational successes in this direction." 5/