I think supply and demand zones are much more conducive to the success of new traders. Why? It reduces the high-tempo and stress driven emotions of trading breakouts that often lead to fake-outs and longs/shorts trapped.
Discounted Premiums β
Supply and demand zones allow you to buy premiums at a discount because you are buying calls at support and puts at resistance. As the underlying price increases, put premiums decrease as they approach resistance and vise versa.
Risk/Reward Clearly Defined β
When entering puts at resistance (supply zone), your stop loss is on confirmation above the supply zone. When entering calls at support (demand zone), your stop loss is on confirmation below the demand zone. This is covered in more detail shortly.
How to Identify Supply Zones βοΈ
Supply zones are areas where traders typically sell. When the stock price hits this level, sell orders are completed that bring down the stock price. When looking at the chart below, we are able to see a clearly defined zone where this takes place
How to Identify Demand Zones βοΈ
Demand zones are where traders typically buy. When the stock price hits this level, buy orders are completed that bring the stock back up. Again, when looking at the chart, this area is clearly visible and defined as price reverses to the upside
How to Trade Supply & Demand Zones βοΈ
As previously mentioned, calls are bought at the demand zone, otherwise known as support. Highlighted in the yellow is your stop loss, representing a confirmation below the demand zone and support now turned into resistance.
In this next example, we look at buying puts at resistance with your stop loss clearly defined on confirmation above the supply as this would indicate resistance now turning into potential support.
As we can see, this example gave us multiple opportunities to play both calls and puts as most supply and demand zones will do. Once a supply or demand zone is broken, large moves are often the result as buyers or sellers have exhausted and can no longer hold that zone.
Taking Profit π°
As the market makes money available to you, take it. There are a number of different strategies to take profit but I recommend utilizing the 9 EMA intraday to trail your position. In calls, if price is above the 9 EMA, let the trend continue and trim profits
as the stock price trends higher. Once a candle closes below the 9 EMA, that's an indication that the trend could be reversing and would be a good opportunity to realize your gains. The inverse is true for put positions. An example below.
It's important to understand that there is no perfect strategy. Supply and demand zones can be utilized with high levels of success with proper risk management. If the trade has become invalidated, exit for a small loss and stay patient for the next A+ setup. Hope this helps!
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How many of you walk into the car dealership asking to pay full price? The stock market isnβt any different. When playing Fibonacci, we are buying the pullback of large impulsive moves, meaning that we are getting a discount on the option premiums.
Let the rookies buy the breakout and pay full price. Have enough patience and discipline to make the market meet you on your terms where you have an edge. So, what does this look like?
Fibonacci works because powerful computer programs use the Fibonacci Sequence to transact large numbers of orders in fractions of a second. In short, we want to trade with high frequency algorithms and Fibonacci allows us to do that.
Impulsive & Corrective Waves
An impulsive wave occurs when the market makes a strong move in one direction and covers a large distance in a short period of time. Corrective waves occur against the larger impulsive wave and are countertrend but shorter.
STEP 1β£: On the 5 minute chart, utilize your fibonacci tool to connect the swing high to the swing low as seen in this chart. Remove all fibs except 0.5, 0.618, 0.786, otherwise known as the Golden Ratio. Identify your stop loss as a 5m candle close above the Golden Zone (0.786)
Step 2β£: As price retraces into the Golden Zone, scale into your position. In this scenario, we are looking for a retrace into the zone to buy puts. I recommend scaling as price can reject from the 0.5 to the 0.786. Leave yourself room to add full position on a full retrace.
$SPY I stopped trading for the first 30 minutes of market open. Why? I don't know the trend so I stay patient and let the market show its hand first. Check out the mid-day opportunities $SPY provided last week to play trend line breaks β¬οΈβ¬οΈ
$SPY Tuesday 5/10
Large morning session flush started to build support eventually forming into a tightening symmetrical triangle. At 1:25pm, breakout confirmation to the upside is confirmed for a $4.81 move to the pivot high.
$SPY Wednesday 5/11
Established a higher low (uptrend) through the morning session. At 12:00pm, this trend line was broken to the downside that resulted in a $7.09 move from trend break confirmation to pivot low of the move.
In this thread, we will take a look at how to identify a trend and how to play a confirmation of a trend line break to the upside or downside.
In playing the trend line break strategy, the first thing that needs to be present is a trend. We can identify a trend by the stock price making a higher low or a lower high. Once identified, we should draw a trend line reflecting this trend as support or resistance.
Once the trend has been confirmed, we are looking for the first 5 minute candle close on the opposite side of this trend line to enter our position. To add additional conviction, I also look for a 9/20 EMA cross and a retest of the trend line now as support or resistance.
Bears established full control immediately gapping us down premarket below demand zone support to $406.36, which ended up being the high of day. Bulls made two unsustainable attempts to protect the $400 psych level but ultimately failed as each pop was sold to new lows
While I'm still bearish on the market, I think we are due for a relief rally soon. On the long side, I am looking for confirmation over $406.36 to fill the gap up to $410.68. Over this gap fill, I think we could squeeze up to $415.91