Thread by @AshishKJha46

Its a Sunday so a quick update on the state of the pandemic in the US

Infections are up about 50% and hospitalizations are rising too

But there is an important pattern emerging in the Northeast that helps chart the path forward

Thread

First, what is driving the increase in infection?

Largely Omicron subvariant BA.2 and increasingly, BA.2.12.1

When we look at the northeast, a few things emerge

First, infections started rising around March 20 (give or take a few days)

2/n

Cases are up 3-4X in the northeast -- from New York to CT, RI, and Massachusetts

As you see, it began rising around March 20

Throughout the pandemic, we've seen about 3 week lag until deaths begin to rise

So we'd expect by April 10 or so, deaths beginning to climb

Do we?

3/n

Well, not so much

Deaths are up a bit, and about 6 weeks after cases began rising

Not what you would have expected

Now, hospitalizations are up some in these states, but again, not as much as one would have expected

So what is happening?

4/8

If you look at the case-fatality rate now in places like NY or MA

Down to 0.3% (that's deaths today divided by cases 3 weeks ago)

And given we're missing lots of cases (because of home testing)

CFR is even lower

Remember, throughout the pandemic, CFR has been closer to 1.6%

So in the northeast, we're seeing a real split between cases and deaths

With CFR down 80%

So what explains it?

High booster rates and treatments

And testing

These states do more tests, have higher booster rates than many other places

So what happens next?

6/9

Unfortunately, other parts of our nation have lower booster rates and less testing

So the virus can spread more easily without detection

And the population is less well protected

Which worries me for the weeks/months ahead as BA.2.12.1 spreads to other, less boosted places

7/

And it worries me for the fall/winter

Because if we do see a wave of infections, we'll want to be able to protect people

Like with the next generation of vaccines that are likely coming

And treatments

And tests

None of which will be available unless Congress steps us now

And of course, during waves, we'll want to have plenty of masks available for Americans

And improvements in ventilation/filtration

And keep vigilant for future variants

And did I mention -- keep vaccinating the world?

Those are the jobs ahead of us

9/10

So the bottom line is this

We're at a point in the pandemic where we know how to manage the virus

To keep infections low

To prevent serious illness

And to protect the most vulnerable

And that's our focus right now

Keep getting people and communities the tools they need

Tests, vaccines, Evusheld, masks, treatments, and more

And ensure we have the resources to continue this work moving forward

And manage the pandemic in a way that protects lives and livelihoods

End