Thread by @JonHallin

I've been trying to work out the timeline for the recent events on and around Snake Island, and I think I've gotten it straight now, so I might as well share it. /1

The first thing I've found that seems relevant is this report of two fast boats moving across the Black Sea, in the general direction of Snake Island, on April 27. /2

https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1519401450685845504

In a funny coincidence, this is also right around the time that things started happening in Transnistria. I'm not gonna delve more into that, I didn't realize how well it coincided in time until I started this digging. /3

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1519418559876710401

On April 30, Bayraktars destroyed two air defense systems on Snake Island, first a Strela SAM system. /4

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1521234811641372678

And two hours later a less important ZU-23-2 autocannon. /5

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1521228670878298114

On May 2 two Raptor patrol boats were hit by Bayraktar rockets, the first at 04:38 while backing out from the island, possibly after dropping something off. The second 13 minutes later moving at high speed towards the island, about 1 km to the south. /6

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1521030972598370306

Longer version where they keep cutting back and forth between the two boats, despite being separated in time. Since I have been commanding and piloting the Stridsbåt 90H (CB-90) in the Swedish AF for almost 20 years, these videos are kinda scary... /7

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1521068198287880193

Probably on May 6, in the early morning based on the shadows, what is probably a Tor SAM system is destroyed. We can see that some of the buildings have been damaged as well. /8

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1522525618432315393

Another view from another Bayraktar. If the readouts are correct, it is actually quite close to Odesa while filming this. /9

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1522674375295700993

Now AP has picked up on something interesting happening, and we get this nice high resolution satellite photo from the afternoon of May 6. A building is burning, and we see the same damaged buildings as in the Tor SAM video. /10

https://twitter.com/jongambrellAP/status/1522863149459939328

On May 7, again at 4 in the morning, we see a Raptor trying to help a Serna landing craft unload another Tor SAM system, with its radar running. The Serna is hit by a Bayraktar rocket, but the Tor radar keeps spinning. /11

https://mobile.twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1522965978354798592

In another edit of the same strike, we see something burning and then exploding, presumably the Tor. We also see that the buildings at the northeastern end of the island are intact, except for one that gets hit in the video. /12

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1522853902101667842

Some time later, two Su-27 strike the island, hitting both the buildings at the top with the old lighthouse, and the cluster of buildings at the northeastern end. /13

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1523027490230444035

Satellite images from just before noon on May 7 show that the buildings at the top are almost completely destroyed, and two buildings in the center of the NE cluster are also destroyed. The Serna is still in the same spot where it was hit. /14

https://twitter.com/jongambrellAP/status/1522916576223186944

A wider satellite image shows two fast boats moving west from Snake Island, towards Ukraine and Romania. /15

https://twitter.com/kosmi64833127/status/1522975680341946370

Early on May 8 a video appears showing probably two different Raptor boats being hit by Bayraktar rockets. Since the video is filmed in daylight, it is probably from the day before. /16

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1523220148844318721

At 00:53 on May 8, a Mi-8 helicopter landing soldiers on Snake Island is destroyed by a Bayraktar rocket. /17

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1523194512138514432

Around the same time, TASS claims that the Russian MoD claims to have thwarted a major Ukrainian attack on Snake Island. If someone can find the actual MoD statement, I'd appreciate it. /18

tass.com/defense/1448331

In the early morning of May 8, satellite images show more burning, and a large white Z on the ground near the Snake Island harbour.

This is as far as I can tell the order of the videos and images I have seen from Snake Island for the last two weeks. /END

https://twitter.com/ukr24022/status/1523343096720855043

Oho, the Z was painted on May 7 some time between 12 and 15 local time, compare this with my post 14.

(Can we please ban Daylight saving time? It makes using lighthouses as sundials for OSINT purposes harder.)

https://twitter.com/obretix/status/1522977951981182977

On the morning of May 9, two vessels are approaching Snake Island from the east, one of them has been identified as a Dyugon landing craft capable of carrying five APCs and 100 soldiers.

https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1523723818422120449