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Louis R Nemzer Profile picture
@BiophysicsFL
May 10, 2022 • 9 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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Proof by because I said so Image
Some equivocating... Image
This one is proof by personal incredulity. 'I can't see how it could have happened, thus it couldn't have happened'

“The fundamental cause of the trouble in the modern world today is that the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.”—Bertrand Russell Image
Calling the claims of two highly-disputed, unpublished preprints "facts" shows he is not ready for the role of Science communicator.

Jesse Bloom "I am especially unconvinced" Image
Why the preprints are not "facts"
Absolute masterclass in "Science is all about silencing alternative viewpoints for the good of society" ImageImageImageImage
Let's ask @sciencecohen and see if, in his opinion, this thread also displays an "open-minded tone". Image
You mean a bat CoV with an FCS appears in a city with a lab on a proposal to add a FCS to bat CoVs?

With an insert that "potentially looks engineered" with CGG CGG codons that appear zero other times in other SARS-like CoV?

Is that enough reason to investigate or 'equivocate'? Image

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More from @BiophysicsFL

Louis R Nemzer Profile picture
Sep 22, 2024
Their claim is that with zero (or one) adaptive mutations, a virus that spilled directly from animals was already transmissible between humans and causing significant illness.
Image
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Compare with how much adaptation was required with SARS1

By their own logic, A and B represented two separate introductions into humans, but they only differ by two mutations.

So there was no chance for the existence of a 'proto-A' or 'proto-B' in humans to pick up adaptive mutations after spillover but before detection.
Read 6 tweets
Louis R Nemzer Profile picture
Jun 3, 2024
Everyone should experience the full @nytimes interactive by @Ayjchan.
But here are some points I'd like to emphasize 🧵
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Image
The most basic question that any theory has to answer is how did the BANAL-like backbone get from Yunnan/Laos without leaving a trace anywhere else

We know lab samples were brought.
Any animal trade pathway is hypothetical

[You need to scroll online to see the pictures change]

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Shi Zhenli said she lost sleep thinking about how it could have been from her lab.

They "never expected" a natural spillover in Wuhan, so much so they used it as the negative control for antibodies from exposure to CoVs Image
Read 19 tweets
Louis R Nemzer Profile picture
May 20, 2024
The chasm between claimed certainty (99.5%, BF 60) and actual result after coding and logical errors are corrected (BF less than 0.3, more likely to be false than true) for such a high profile paper is truly stunning.

Great work by @nizzaneela
Time for a supercut of authors blithely repeating their bogus "99.5%" claim to shut down debate based on science that has now completely collapsed.

Read 7 tweets
Louis R Nemzer Profile picture
May 2, 2024
❗
Q: "Do you know if the WIV had access to additional backbones or unpublished full-length virus"

Baric: "I'm sure they were working on other full-length molecular clones" Image
This just makes Proximal Origin look worse and worse. *Of course* they would have an unpublished full-length clone. Image
Baric was one of the recipients of KGA's infamous 'crackpot' email.

Did Baric ever point out the completely flawed premise, that a known backbone would have had to been used?

[Although I think Baric did say at some point you can't tell engineering just from the sequence alone] Image
Read 28 tweets
Louis R Nemzer Profile picture
Feb 15, 2024
Which is more parsimonious?

(A)"Some early cases missed" of an often asymptomatic respiratory virus during flu season - with a health care system extremely hesitant to acknowledge a novel contagious human disease

Or

(B) Speculate a completely unknown market as the source for A
Image
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This raises some larger points. So much of the Natural Origin case is tied to proving a market spillover hypothesis, which in turn relies very strongly on a timeline of no or very few early cases... Which is very fragile to reports of earlier sick people retroactively removed.
Also, the claim that lab leak is wrong because there are 'many incompatible versions' doesn't make sense either.

Some NO proponents think A was definitely at HSM and 'strong' evidence. Others admit the physical evidence is actuall tenuous and posit an entirely different market!
Read 4 tweets
Louis R Nemzer Profile picture
Jan 24, 2024
Proximal Origin was used to totally foreclose the possibility of an engineering.

The lead author in a press release: “By comparing the available genome sequence data for known coronavirus strains, we can firmly determine that SARS-CoV-2 originated through natural processes" Image
But how do their arguments hold up in light of the DEFUSE grant?
"Our analyses clearly show that SARS-CoV-2 is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus"

Reasons:
(1) RBD was not predicted by computers to bind so well to hACE2, and matches 'pangolin' mutations
(2) O-linked glycans imply immune system
(3) Unknown Backbone
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Read 7 tweets

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