OK, here's a very initial take on the #QueensSpeech: 1. Was never a vehicle for immediate cost of living interventions. If government wants to help before the Autumn Budget they can, but Queen's Speech is about legislation which takes time to pass and take effect. 1/n
2. So today could have been:
- Announce help earlier? Nope.
- Legislate on crisis drivers & increase resilience?
Verdict: 3. Housing =standout: 'full fat' Renters' Reform Bill, improves rights & security in private rented sector + quite punchy Social Housing Regulation Bill. 2/6
Nothing much to boost housing supply, but significant movement on quality and security. 4. Economic growth and employment: Lots of talk, not much action. Biggest gap = no employment bill. Promised for years. Boosting job security + flexibility would have made big difference. 3/6
5. Levelling Up. Sprinkling of good things: county devo deals, LA powers to help revive high streets, annual report. Nothing very transformative or ambitious. Stuff like al fresco dining & renaming streets feels a bit 'fiddling while Rome burns'. 4/6
6. Energy Security. Net Zero reaffirmed as the goal. Some reasonable medium term stuff on heat pumps, carbon capture, hydrogen. Nothing on faster delivering measures like energy efficiency & on-shore wind. (Or fracking for enthusiasts). 5/6
7. Overall: Lots of ambition & rhetoric. A few good policies. Nothing really on cost of living (but was never likely to be). Doesn't feel like a reboot moment, more a holding position till they see how bad things get in the Autumn. 6/6
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To see how much social attitudes have changed on 30 years, play 1980s scruples. Pro tip: sort the questions before playing with kids! Some of the dilemmas presented as ‘reasonable people may disagree’ are properly shocking* ⬇️
Right. We have two different cost of living/energy crises happening, needing different solutions and conflating them is Not Helping.
Crisis 1: people on low incomes facing serious hardship, overwhelming charity support, in dire straits now & set to get worse. 1/4
Crisis 2: People on middle incomes feeling the pinch now & facing massive fuel bills this Autumn. Big hit to living standards. Difficult for families & politically dangerous but not in same league as crisis 1.
Solutions:
Crisis 1: Needs immediate boost to benefits. 2/4
Not waiting. Not weird council tax work around. Raise levels + one off grant where needed.
Crisis 2: Develop sensible short term help in time for Autumn + medium term prevention. E.g. Short term: green levies to general tax, long term loan to energy companies to reduce cap…3/4
Ahead of tomorrow's Spring Statement, a round up of what we know about the cost of living crisis and the Chancellor's options, from various organisations' analysis 🧵1/12
4.4 million people already having to use credit to keep up with essential bills. (@StepChange). 4.7 million are food insecure - can't afford to eat properly. (@Food_Foundation). 2/12
5 million people will be unable to afford energy bill when prices rise in April. 14.5 million unable to afford their energy bills from October. (@CitizensAdvice ) Energy bills going up by £850 for those on low incomes, will take up a fifth of their incomes. (@jrf_uk ) 3/12
What do Universal Credit changes mean for different families? Here's the first slab of @jrf_uk analysis, hot off the press.
Reminder of big changes: 1. Taper rate (like tax rate) down from 63% to 55%. 2. Work allowance (amount you earn before taper kicks in) up by £500.🧵1/7
Starting with the biggest gainers:
Family A: Couple, 2 kids, 1 FT worker, 1 PT worker
- Gain £31 per week from UC changes
- Living costs rise by £24 (Energy cost + inflation + national insurance)
- Result: £7 a week better off. 2/7
Family B: Single parent, 1 child, works full time
- Gains £19 per week from UC changes
- Living costs rise by £18
- Result: £1 a week better off.
All other family types end up worse off...3/7
Happy Budget & Spending Review Day! It's wonk Christmas and we're so excited! Here's what to look out for...🧵1/8
2 big questions: 1. Has the Chancellor done enough to help people on low incomes weather the cost of living storm? 2. Has he acted decisively to to divert the currents pulling people into poverty in the medium term? 2/8
1. What could he do on the cost of living crisis?
Restore £20 to Universal Credit✅✅✅
Boost child tax credit/child benefit ✅✅
Relink Housing Benefit & rents✅✅
Double Household Support Fund ✅
Boost & expand Cold Weather Payment✅ 3/8
Two stories this week shocked a lot of people. UK food insecurity stats showed 43% UC claimants unable to afford enough to eat. And a homeless boy was having to make a 170 mile round trip to school due to lack of housing. Great question from @tomneumark, answer in this thread.1/9
Q. Why is the solution to unaffordable housing for the government to build social homes, but the solution to food insecurity isn't to provide food?
A. I think it's because of the state of the underlying markets.
- Market for food & groceries basically functions pretty well. 2/9
- Food is mostly affordable, reasonable variety is available, there's a range of prices, most people can access.
- There are exceptions, e.g. people struggling to reach supermarkets due to transport, or to access them due to disability. 3/9