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May 10 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
A senior U.S. defense official wrapped up a briefing about an hour ago with an update on Russia's war in Ukraine on day 76.

Here are some of the most important notes, including more American training of Ukrainian troops and weapons deliveries
U.S. believes that Russia has honed in on the northern line of advance out of Izyum into the Donbas, focused on Sloviansk.

Two other advances have stalled due to Ukrainian resistance.

Russia is in control of Popasna, after confirmation from 🇺🇦 officials
Russia is now up to 99 battalion tactical groups, after adding two airborne groups in the past 24 hr

🇷🇺 has added about ~15 BTGs into 🇺🇦 in past 2 weeks. But it's not clear that the units are in great shape – and the Wagner Group is asking for more help.
More US military aid is pouring in.

US trained:
• 370 🇺🇦 troops on howitzers (+60 from Mon)
• 60 🇺🇦 troops on M113 APCs
• 20 🇺🇦 troops on Phoenix Ghost

US has sent"
• 89 / 90 M77 howitzers to 🇺🇦
• 120,000 / 184,000 artillery rounds to 🇺🇦
• 5,500 Javelins & 1,500 Stingers
Russia still has the "majority" of its combat power – including weapons, troops, and supplies – left for the fight in Ukraine. Weeks ago that number was 75 percent.

Western officials peg Russia as deploying roughly 65-70 percent of ground forces to Ukraine
The U.S. believes that Russia has fired 10 to 12 hypersonic weapons into Ukraine in the past two months of war. No confirmation they hit Odesa

🇷🇺 ships have moved further away from Odesa since the sinking of the Moskva on April 14, but 🇺🇸 believes 🇷🇺 could be trying to "fix" 🇺🇦 forces in the city to prevent them from fighting in Donbas or elsewhere.

Officials said yday 🇷🇺 has "no ability" to attack Odesa on the ground
Not much change in the naval picture, 🇷🇺 still with 20 ships in the Black Sea, many of them moving further away from shore to stay out of range of Neptune missiles that hit Moskva.

There's no indication that an amphibious assault on Odesa is coming.
Ukraine's airspace remains contested, and Russian aircraft are wary of venturing in, especially with Slovakian-provided S-300s now in play.

But the sortie rate has climbed by about 50 or so strikes since yesterday.
Bigger picture: where is this headed?

U.S. believes 🇷🇺 is two weeks behind military objectives in Donbas & south.

But Putin is still striving to create a land bridge to Crimea, which 🇺🇸 officials believe he's all but achieved (other than Mariupol).

Kyiv is still on the table.
Despite Putin's making no major announcements on 'Victory Day,' U.S. officials believe the Kremlin could leverage a Russian foothold in the Donbas to push deeper into Ukraine, again.
But Putin still hasn't achieved ANY of his strategic goals in Ukraine, 76 days after launching a full-scale invasion
That's it for today.

My colleagues @RobbieGramer
and @ak_mack outlined the possibilities that Putin still has on the table despite no major moves on victory day.

And follow @columlynch who has a bang-up profile of the UN chief's track record on Ukraine
foreignpolicy.com/2022/05/06/wor…

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More from @JackDetsch

Jack Detsch Profile picture
May 11
NEW: China is increasingly embarrassed by Russia's war in Ukraine, Britain's Defense Secretary said on Tuesday.

After the damage Putin has caused in Ukraine: “How many world leaders are going to be taking Putin on line two?” Ben Wallace told reporters.
foreignpolicy.com/2022/05/11/u-k…
“I think China views instability [as] bad for business,” British Secretary of State for Defense Ben Wallace said. “I think probably China is rather embarrassed by the behavior of Putin. He’s a rather inconvenient friend, and … you don’t see a full-throated support.”
But Russia’s relationship with China is competitive, as the two grapple for influence everywhere from the Arctic and Central Asia to Central Africa.

Wallace said Russia is “really worried” about China dominating the high north and could be in a weaker position after the war.
Read 7 tweets
Jack Detsch Profile picture
May 6
NEW: Western officials believe that Putin has a wide menu of options to escalate the war in Ukraine on 'Victory Day'

Russia could declare victories on unconquered territories, hold parades in occupied areas of Ukraine, or announce a mass mobilization.
foreignpolicy.com/2022/05/06/wor…
Western officials told us Russia is also likely to announce phony elections to annex Ukraine's occupied territories of Donetsk, Luhansk & Kherson on or around May 9.

That move would mirror declarations of sovereignty in 🇺🇦 breakaway territories before the full-scale invasion.
Ukrainian officials fear that Moscow may look to hold a victory parade amid the rubble of Mariupol, a strategic Ukrainian port city that has been under siege by Russian troops for nearly two months.

(Russia has denied these reports.)
Read 8 tweets
Jack Detsch Profile picture
Apr 29
DoD’s top spokes was just asked if the US still believed Putin was “rational” after invading Ukraine

John Kirby gave an answer lasting several minutes, pausing with emotion over the tragic war.

“I can’t talk to his psychology, but we can all speak to his depravity,” Kirby said.
Kirby, who attained the rank of rear admiral in the US Navy, said he has lost friends in combat.

Images of Russian atrocities in Ukraine give lie to Putin’s “B.S.” about defending Russians and stopping nazism.

“None of them, none of them, were threatened by Ukraine,” he said.
Kirby said it is “hard to square” Putin’s rhetoric of protecting Russians with what Putin is “actually doing to innocent people, shot in the back of the head, hands tied behind their backs.”

The killings of pregnant women and the bombings of hospitals are “just unconscionable.”
Read 4 tweets
Jack Detsch Profile picture
Apr 29
Senior U.S. defense officials wrapped up a briefing a little while ago with an update on Russia's war in Ukraine. It's now Day 65.

Here's what we learned, including new U.S. military aid flights to the region and Russia's (lack of) progress in Donbas.
Russia launched about 50 missiles into Ukraine over the past 24 hours, a senior U.S. defense official said, although thick clouds over Donbas has mitigated American visibility.

50 missiles is about the avg launches per day around the mid-March timeframe
U.S. sanctions & export controls have taken a bite out of Russia's ability to restock PGMs, because it can't get high-tech components from abroad.

So Russia is dropping dumb bombs on Mariupol, even as some 🇷🇺 units move north out of the city.
Read 14 tweets
Jack Detsch Profile picture
Apr 28
NEW: The Taliban has been parading through Kabul with some of $7B in weapons & equip left behind after the US military exit

Some US officials & fmr Afghan officials fear Taliban could NOW use US-provided rifles or surveillance drones (w/ @RobbieGramer)
foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/28/the…
There are more than 250,000 automatic rifles, 95 drones, and more than a million mortar rounds that require little training to use, officials familiar told us.

If the Taliban don’t use them, the cash-starved militant group could pass them on to U.S. adversaries or terror groups
In recent weeks, the Taliban have been seen parading through the streets of Afghanistan in US armored vehicles that were first provided to the Afghan army.

The US left 23,825 Humvees in Afghanistan, including armored gun truck variants & nearly 900 combat vehicles
Read 6 tweets
Jack Detsch Profile picture
Apr 28
DATA: A cumulative total of U.S. military aid to Ukraine since Russia's Feb. 24 invasion.

February 25: $350m
March 12: $550m
March 16: $1.35b
April 1: $1.65b
April 5: $1.75b
April 13: $2.55b
April 21: $3.35b
April 24: $3.67b
April 28: $14.67b (if approved by Congress)
I previously tweeted the total would be almost $20B, based on a senior defense official saying that $16B of the new package would be military aid.

But $11B of new package is destined for 🇺🇦, while another $5B off to NATO Eastern Flank nations.
Here's the full breakdown of the money provided earlier by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin
Read 4 tweets

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