In short, I assessed 300 comments about Bucha from 3 nationalist social media groups posted in the 48 hours after news broke. I rated posts based on whether they disagreed with Russian actions, reiterated/agreed with them, or encouraged Russians to commit more acts of violence.
There were only 3 posts that strongly disagreed with Russia's actions and the media narratives excusing their behaviour in Bucha. 3. Out of 300 posts. Nobody was speaking up.
Half of posts encouraged Russians to commit MORE genocide. Typical comments:
- “Death penalty for all the khokhols, there’s no place for them in the world, time to destroy this fucking race”
- “Destroy the satanists, no mercy”
- “Why didn’t they shoot these f***ts with a rocket?”
When I counted up the raw data for this my blood was boiling. One of those research moments when you think "It can't be as bad as this. That can't be true." I double checked. It is true: for some, genocide hasn't just been accepted, it's been embraced.
There are plenty more examples of this kind of language translated in the article. I hope it serves as a repository for non-experts and non-Russian speakers to witness the kinds of speech being thrown around in these spaces.
In sum, Russians have been using nationalist social media groups to encourage each other, whip each other up, to commit more and more obscene acts of violence after Bucha.
The article's available free of charge. It's a bleak read, but worth your time if you want to confront the reality of the way that genocide is being discussed.
h/t to @dirkmoses for asking me to write this and to @warmatters for giving it a read before submission.
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A navy officer also responds to Ukraina.ru, the gvt media service: "This is the latest fake. There have been no strikes. Neither the Makarov nor any other vessel is on fire. This is likely a response to [sinking of Ukrainian vessels yesterday.]"
A third explanation: "It's unclear whose vessel has been hit, or if a vessel has been hit at all."
Great threads like this miss one key point: to the majority of Russians, Putin is winning. Russia is winning. And retreating from Ukraine doesn’t necessarily mean “losing.”
Atrocious defeats can be just as important for national myth-making as glorious victories. Think of Dunkirk. The Charge of the Light Brigade. The Confederate loss in US Civil War.
If Russian collapses in Ukraine - and that’s still an if - don’t assume ordinary Russians are going to race onto the streets to depose Putin. They’ll bay for blood - the West’s, Ukraine’s, internal enemies’ - but it may not be the leader’s.
Just got this incredible story from a Canadian volunteer fighting in Ukraine: "Last night we pulled off an incredible raid on the FSB headquarters in Mariupol. I might never have gone but my Colonel said he wants 50 missions. 50 missions! And I've only done 44..."
"Night was falling when we set off for the village. There was nobody around but a few Russian grandmas waving some old red flags. Luckily we found some bicycles and got on. But damn! Before we knew it, we looked at the bicycle tires..."
"...and what did we see? Punctures! Looking closer these were old tires with USSR stamped on the side. They were covered in mud. The Russians hadn't brought the right tires at all. There was no way they were going to win a war bringing in howitzers on bikes like these..."
Banner from today’s communist march in central Moscow: “Our future,” read backwards. Beautiful symbolism in a country that wants to go “Forward to the USSR.”
The communists in downtown Moscow are super into Stalin. Can you imagine Hitler’s banner being displayed like this anywhere in the world?
Communists, of course, are allowed to parade through downtown Moscow unopposed. People holding 1984 or War & Peace can be thrown in jail.
Russian nationalists on Telegram have totally lost it. They’ll cheer any news, and do it in the most awful, racist ways possible.
Dive in to an example (strong content) with me ⬇️
News breaks about Russia cutting off gas to Bulgaria because 🇧🇬 won’t pay in Roubles. This is obviously bad news for them. Less money for Russia = less guns to fire at kids in Ukraine, not to mention the cratering economy at home.
I looked at one group with 700,000 subscribers. Look at the emojis to the post announcing the news. They love this shit. Only NINE people of close to 7,000 responses give this a thumbs down.
🧵 We can't read too much long-term meaning into opinion polls on leaders' performance during the early stages of a war. We've seen lots of surveys showing Putin & Zelensky's high ratings, but I'm not sure they'll mean much in a week, a month, or a year.
First, when it comes to Putin and support for the war in general in Russia, all the opinion polling is to be taken with a huge pinch of salt. @russophiliac has a great blog on this. Read it. postsocialism.org/2022/03/21/don…
But second, and more important, ratings for leaders tend to go up in the early parts of wars no matter how badly the war's going or how controversial it is.