Summary of livestream with Aleksey Arestovych for 11 May:
1. Great reshuffle in Russia’s general staff. Gerasimov is de-facto suspended from his responsibilities. First Tank Army commander replaced. Russia’s own evaluation of its efforts is clear.
2. Internal conflicts within occupied Kherson Oblast between ‘local administration’ and FSB/GRU - the claim of readiness to join Russia today was necessary to look ‘good’ for Moscow.
3. Arestovych believes that Russia faced with reality is starting to bring political goals in accordance with military capabilities, unlike before. Backtracking has begun and Putin’s mild 9 May speech is an indication of it.
4. China’s position to respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine (including Donbas and Crimea) is a huge blow for Russia - this may mean China believes Ukraine could take back both Donbas and Crimea.
5. Kharkiv direction - Ukrainian forces approaching and in some places reaching border in Russia - however, this means little - the war is already cross-border with 10 Russian BTGs in Belgorod Oblast and Russian shelling Ukraine from there.
6. An option was offered to Russia to exchange Mariupol survivors for Russian captives. Arestovych receiving death threats from Azov fighters’ ‘wives’ - but these are most likely fakes.
7. US lend-lease and a $40 billion aid package both arriving (and quite early), Russia is likely facing a very objective defeat with this in mind which explains their re-alignment of military goals with objective reality.
8. There will be no Minsk-3. Claims by Macron regarding Ukraine’s slowdown in admittance to EU may display an attempt by Russia to find a way out behind the scenes.
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A very curious incident occurred for Russians in the Pokrovsk direction. We've all heard when Russians send specialists like UAV operators and tankmen into meat assaults. In this case, one operator recorded a video before his death... 1/
In the video, he accused his regiment commander "Zloy" of disbanding their long-range UAV unit, drug trafficking, and failing to cause damage to the Ukrainian Armed Forces following intelligence data provided by the same UAV operators.
2/
The video states that it will be published in the event of death. The man, called "Goodwin", was killed in an assault alongside his colleagues without supplies, maps, or any equipment. He warned about this in text messages to other Russians, and asked for help with transfer.
Yesterday morning, another assault on the farm was repulsed in the area of Novomikhailivka village. Russians have been trying to assault this farm and a cemetery every day for months now to gain a foothold for the assault of the village itself. Below: drone follows a Russian vehicle trying to escape.
Assaults and bombings are intense. On one day, Russians sent 64 FPV-drones at the village. Every day it is shelled with artillery, and bombed with 4-8 guided airbombs and KABs. Below: Ukrainian positions under intense shelling.
To say Russians are having it easy would be wrong. They're facing extreme losses. As a Ukrainian soldier tells me, there are no more Storm-Z units in this direction - they ran out. It is the regular army assaulting now, and they’re replenished weekly. Photo: the farm under assault.
Russian mobik's family is starving at home due to lack of payments while he's on the frontline. He reveals this in a call intercepted and published by GUR.
In the undated call, the man talks about his arguments with the leadership who are failing to process monthly salaries for the mobiks.
As a result, his wive has to live off the credit card, raking up a huge bill.
Massive delays in payments for the Russian soldiers have been reported throughout the whole war.
Russia opened a criminal case against Colonel of GRU Vladimir Kvachkov, a close Girkin's ally and a member of the "Angry Patriots Club", accusing him of discrediting the Russian Armed Forces.
It is a notable case as Kvachkov is well-known in "patriotic" and "nationalist" circles in Russia, he is reasonably respected among rashists.
He was trialled for his "anti-liberal" attacks and even an attempt to assassinate a senior Russian official Anatoly Chubais in the previous two decades.
A somber celebration by Prigozhin of Bakhmut finally "falling".
He and the Russians know at what cost this and all recent advances came. Whether the ruins of the city stay with them for much longer is another question.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian Pyotr Verzilov published footage of urban battles in Bakhmut, indicating that fighting didn't stop for a minute.
But I doubt Russians will be announcing the capture of Bakhmut a second time, so some conclusions can be made.
The situation seems similar to Soledar when Russia claimed the city, and Ukrainian forces continued steadily holding the frontline and falling back to more comfortable combat positions with no breakthroughs, costing Russia dearly.
Gazprom's PMC unit Potok [Stream] is reported to have conflicts with Wagner. Potok fighters complain to Putin, they were attached to OO Redut and sent to replace Wagner's positions, but were forced to retreat under the AFU pressure. For this, Wagner threatened them with shooting.
Here, a Wagner mercenary talks aggressively about Potok, accusing them of cowardice and abandoning weapons and positions. Calling them a Goluboy Potok [Blue Stream], most likely to characterise them as homosexuals ["Goluboy" refers to homosexuality in Russian]. DRO="Dyra" [Hole].
Here a captured mercenary from Potok also explains that Gazprom created a number of other units such as Fakel [Torch] and Plamya [Flame] which were attached to the Ministry of Defence. He was dumped on the battlefield by his comrades and was lucky enough to reach 🇺🇦 positions.