Thread by @wartranslated

Summary of this 14 May evening livestream with Aleksey Arestovych - discussed current frontline situation, destruction of Russian illusions, future of Ukraine and Rus' and more.

Source:

Russians have been developing the Barvenkovo offensive for a week to cut off Ukrainian forces. It was repelled in the last few days with Ukrainian counter-offensive, now Ukraine digging in. Russians were stopped at their main strike location, pointing at signs of a huge shift.

Russia is losing ability to advance, and turning to defence. Melitopol is already being prepared for defence with construction of earthworks and defensive lines.

Russia is transferring some troops from Kherson to move them to Kharkiv area.

There is no lend-lease yet but the siege of the 4th largest city in Ukraine was lifted with Ukraine's own forces. Light infantry, Ter. Defence threw back marines and paratroopers. What will happen when Ukraine builds heavy brigades with lend-lease resources?

Big Ukrainian strike - Russian brigade-level command hqs were shelled in Kherson oblast. Ammunitions detonated for 3 hours.

Overall, Russia has captured 3,000 localities with 1,051 now freed.

Peak of capabilities for Ukraine will be in July, Russia is also mobilising actively. Heavy weapons remain a big problem for Ukraine right now - there's no shortage at all of combat personnel.

G7 statement to fully support Ukraine echoes in Russia - propagandists are in tears. Girkin and others are losing their shit. Even loyal propagandists are rejecting the current course, but the real consequences for Russia haven’t even started yet.

Russian illusions will be destroyed when economical pressure reaches peak and Ukrainian counter-offensive takes place. This will be a classic military defeat that will reflect on every Russian. Every Russian will personally experience moral, economical catastrophe.

Discussed briefly Putin’s health scares - it is at the very least a psychological manoeuvre, yet Arestovych claims Putin had ambulance called for him last week, he was bedridden. 9 May parade showed Putin doesn't look good. This is a sign for Putin's entourage to start thinking.

The key is to get rid of Putin. Even with Putin gone the current entourage will have problems, but likely folks like Patrushev to increase military pressure - this won't last though, and others will come who are ready for concessions.

This regime is guaranteed to gradually collapse. Sensible people in Russia need to evaluate their next steps. Putin’s time is up - he is already gone, just not dead yet.

Ban on pro-Russian parties by Zelenskiy will lead to a full reformation of the political system in Ukraine. South East electorate remains an issue - work on this is underway but the intrigue stays. Yet Ukraine will never be the same, politically, socially, economically.

Ukraine changing its archetype from victim to victor. It was a victim for the last 450 years. This is a tectonic change. Still not clear what Ukraine wants but they know what they don't want. Many Ukrainians in Europe already want to return home.

Moscow as a centre of Rus' will disappear - the imperialism was a consequence of the Mongol invasion, and Rus' went the wrong way for centuries. This imperialism is now dying, we won't recognise Eastern Europe in ten years. Power is coming back to Kyiv.

end.