1) A history lesson in $COMPQ screenshots for all the youngsters thinking their hypergrowth stocks have bottomed. View this screenshot of the monthly chart for the NASDAQ starting from Dec. 1998 going through Dec. 2003:
2) Now a screenshot of the $COMPQ showing five years of data like that of the chart above from the Dot-Com above.
Friday, 13 MAY 22, the Nasdaq Composite closed at 11,805.00
The Nasdaq is "only" down -27.18% since its All-Time high in Nov. 2021.
3) So what are the headwinds which should be giving rocket ship emoticon pumpers pause?
1. War in Ukraine 2. Treasury yields almost double in the last 12-months 3. Fed looking for another 1.90% in rate rise. 4. Quickening of corporate bond downgrades.
(continued)
4) (Headwinds continued)
5. EV assembly lines everywhere idled for lack of parts. 6. China lockdown turning into supply chain choke-outs. 7. Droughts planet wide hurting agriculture. 8. India stops exporting wheat to impoverished countries in Africa and South America
5) (Headwinds continued)
9. COVID death tolls creeping upward again. 11. Semiconductor shortages. 10. Oil, Nat Gas, and Gasoline still in bull market 11. The rise of Nativist and Nationalist politicians across America and other areas of the planet fanning conspiracy theories.
6) If you were alive in 1999, you know the extreme greed of the period feels like the silliness today of people hawking stock symbols in which they've vested no due diligence.(Hell, most of the meme stock pickers wouldn't know an Earnings report if it bit them on the ass.)
7) Last Friday was a big double-digit "bounce" day for magical unicorns with cashflows which don't cover expenses or which cannot pay off earlier debt. This is what needs to be understood here and now: corporate debt must be paid down or refied. Corporate debt is more expensive.
8) This is a time of flight to value. The top three of the eleven sectors of the S&P 500 which are in any kind of bull market are Energy, Utilities, and Consumer Staples. Everything else is breaking down with these weekly bounces.
9) Why chase a unicorn stock which can fly or die when you can simply think through ramifications of shortages in certain commodities (especially agriculture and energy) and buy companies still ascendant with bullish crossovers intact on their daily, weekly, and monthly charts?
10) Look at that Dot-com crash chart above. It wasn't a five-month affair of going down and then off to the races again.
Look where we are today.
Be smart. Conserve capital. Deploy it in strong sectors now, not stuff you fell in love with in 2019-2021.
Great collaborative article which provides how drought, crop rotations, war - and more - are taking the toll on cooking oils from sources as different as palm trees and sunflower seeds.
1) End of Week Updates Monthly/Weekly charts
Fri, 13 MAY 22
$COMPQ Nasdaq
$RUT Russell 2000
$SPX S&P 500
$USD US Dollar
$UST10Y 10 Year Bond
$UST20Y 20 Year Bond
$UST30Y 30 Year Bond
$KBE S&P Bank Sector
$CRB Commodities
1) The weekend wrap up for the S&P 500 $SPX and its Eleven Sectors as of end of Week #17, 29 APR 22 plus a finviz bar graph showing performance for last week & month of April 2022:
2) $SPX S&P 500 End of week, 29 APR 22, Daily, Weekly and Monthly charts.
As noted earlier this morning, all $SPX charts show breakdowns of trendline or horizontal supports:
3) $XLB Materials Sector end of week 29 APR 22, Daily, Weekly, and Monthly charts
1) $F The Ford 150 EV Pickup named "Lightning" has started production. Not mentioned in this article about yesterday's honorary bell ringing for the Nasdaq Exchange is the first batch for 2022 are "sold out" (just like the Mustang EV): finance.yahoo.com/news/ford-ring…
2) $F "order books have indeed closed for all versions of the 2022 F-150 Lightning. You can still buy one, but it would have to be an in-stock truck with a price markup. The alternative is to wait for a 2023 or 2024 model-year vehicle." carsdirect.com/automotive-new…
3) 27 APR 22: $F reported Q1 March 2022 earnings of $0.38 per share on revenue of $34.5 billion. Revenue fell 4.8% compared to the same quarter a year ago.
$COMPQ Nasdaq
$RUT Russell 2000
$SPX S&P 500
$USD US Dollar
$UST10Y 10 Year Bond
$UST20Y 20 Year Bond
$UST30Y 30 Year Bond
$KBE S&P Bank Sector
$CRB Commodities
1) EoW Updates Monthly/Weekly charts
Fri, 5 NOV 21
$COMPQ Nasdaq
$RUT Russell 2000
$SPX S&P 500
$USD US Dollar
$KBE S&P Bank Sector
$UST10Y 10 Year Bond
$UST20Y 20 Year Bond
$UST30Y 30 Year Bond
$CRB Commodities
$BDI Baltic Dry Index
$TRAN Dow Jones Transportation Avg.