Invasion of Ukraine revolutionised the Russian symbolics introducing a new, previously unknown symbol Z. What does Z even mean? Neither Russians, nor foreigners have any idea. It is clearly a forced meme. And I have a guess on who forced it🧵
The choice of Z-letter looks weird. First, it doesn't look like anything Russian or Soviet propaganda used before, making it hard to understand. Second, it's not a Cyrillic, but a foreign looking Latin letter. Which makes its choice as a symbol for the "patriotic" war problematic
Unlike most European alphabets which are based on Latin, Russian alphabet evolved from the Greek, which makes it harder for Westerners to understand. Some of the Russian letters look alike their Western analogues - A, E, K, O, C, T. But Russian "З" (ze) looks nothing like "Z"
In pretty much all of official propaganda slogans are written with normal Cyrillic letters. And only two letters - В and З are written in Latin as V and Z. Paradoxically, using this Latin letters instead of normal Cyrillic ones manifests loyalism and support of the war in Ukraine
Changing Russian З and В letters to Latin Z and V, you shows your loyalism. Other letters don't have to be changed. That's why names of pro-Kremlin Telegram channels and chats now look as a weird mix of Cyrillic and Latin. If it was all in Cyrillic, it would be viewed as neutral
From these two pro-war symbols Z and V the former is viewed as more "radical". That's how you track the gradual disillusionment in this war. Take this channel. It used to be called "Империя курильщика|Z". Very radical. Then radical Z changed to a moderate V. Now he deleted even V
What does Z mean? Nobody quite understands. Some try to explain it as the first letter of the phrase "За победу" (For victory). But why do you need to replace a normal Russian З to a weird Latin Z which has almost no recognisable allusions to the Russian culture or narrative?
So far I haven't found good explanations of what does Z mean. These analyses for example don't look sufficient. One points out to Z being a dynamic letter easy to paint. That's not wrong. Another calls it "dangerous". That's not wrong either. Still, it doesn't explain anything
Russians are just as puzzled by Z as Westerners. Watch Russian state TV trying to Zsplain to its audience. They admit that the choice of Latin letters Z and V is a "secret that preoccupies everyone". They admit it's a problem and try to link them to the ancient Cyrillic letters
We have a problematic symbol. It's completely ununderstandable and previously unknown. It's also Latin which makes it problematic in the context of a patriotic war against the West. And ofc it's forced down everyone's throats by the power of the state. Prisoners have no choice
Mortally ill children from a hospice are made to form a Z-letter. When I posted this story the first time many considered it unbelievable, so I'll post a source. Unfortunately you can't judge news from Russia based on your "common sense". That doesn't work kommersant.ru/doc/5249130
Regions and city administrations launched Z-actions all over the country. One typical move was lighting their windows in a way to form a Z-letter. Here you see a regional parliament of Arkhangelsk lighting its windows to form a Z-letter doing it. That's very typical behavior
Governor of the Kemerovo region in Siberia declared that the region which is often called "Кузбасс" will be now styled as "КуZбасс" in all its official materials. Like the Donbass, Kuzbass is a major coal mining region, hence the "bass", short form of bassein
Забайкалье region to the east of the Baikal lake now styles itself as Zабайкалье in all official materials. As a general rule, regional elites show extreme compliance with the Z-propaganda, indicating that it is all a coordinated policy, and coordinated by Kremlin
So what does Z mean? Nobody quite understands. Westerners don't and honestly speaking Russians don't either. So let's ask another question - where does it come from? Some argue that initially Z,V and others were simply signs on Russian vehicles and then were chosen as symbols
Sounds fair. And yet, the question remains - chosen by whom? The argument about Russian "people" or even "journalists" choosing it sounds very weak. No one who ever lived in Russia would believe in such BS. Russia doesn't allow *any* initiative from the bottom
Consider a Russian nationalist Kholmogorov. He applied for a permit for a demonstration *in support* of the Russian army in Ukraine. Prosecutors issued him a warning which can very easily turn into a legal prosecution. No initiative from the bottom is allowed in the modern Russia
It's insane to assume that in such a centralised, bottom-down country as Russia which extirpates any agency among its subjects, punishing them for every unsolicited activity however loyalist, such a massive campaign as Z could come from the bottom. Nope. It must come from the top
Nazism is now strongly associated with esotericism. That's not wrong. And yet, judging from primary sources it wasn't Hitler who pushed this agenda. It was primarily Himmler, who forced mysticism and occultism down everyone's throats with only a grudging agreement of Hitler
Let's revise what we know of Z-symbol:
1) it's foreign 2) it's ununderstandable 3) it has no references in the Russian culture and tradition *
* The only exception I'm aware of is Brodsky's poem "A letter to General Z, criticising the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968
What can we assume about the person who chose and forced Z as the symbol of invasion?
1) creative and unafraid to experiment with ideology and symbolics 2) markedly high-brow. He probably views himself as a big intellectual 3) has strong propensity to occultism and esotericism
Even more importantly, Z-author must be a personal "friend" (= member of the closest circle) of Putin. Since all the authority in Russia is personified in the Tsar, the person who pushed Z must have a direct access to and influence on the Tsar
Finally, a quick and most importantly *creative* compliance of regional elites indicates that Z-enforcer is directly involved into the domestic policy-making. Governors don't just comply (that's easy). They also understand what he wants. That's much more difficult to execute
We don't have enough evidence to determine who is the author of Z-symbol. But we know just enough to make an educated guess. Most probably, it's the Russian Czar for Domestic Policy, a person who teaches, selects and guides Russian governors. So, Sergey Kirienko. End of 🧵
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Contrary to the popular opinion, Andrey Belousov's appointment as a Minister of Defense makes perfect sense. From the Kremlin's perspective, war is primarily about industry & economy. Now Belousov is the central economic & industrial thinker (and planner) in the Russian gov.
Born into a Soviet Brahmin economist family, Belousov is an exceedingly rare case of an academician making a successful career in the Russian gov. Even more noteworthy, he rose to the position of power through his academic work and publications.
This is unique, ultra rare.
Belousov's career track:
1976-1981 Moscow State University ("economic cybernetics"). Basically, economics, but with the heavy use of then new computers.
1981-1986 Central Economic Mathematical Institute
1986-2006 Instutute of Economic Forecasting
2006-2024 Government
If you want to imagine Russia, imagine a depressive, depopulating town. Now on the outskirts of a town, there is an outrageously over-equipped, overfunded strategic enterprise that has literally everything money can buy in the world. It feels like a spaceship from another planet
Strategic industry is extremely generously equipped. Western companies look scoundrels in comparison. That’s why I am so sceptical about the whole “corruption” narrative. Not that it’s wrong. It’s just that it is the perspective of a little, envious bitch.
What needs to be funded, will be funded. It will actually be overfunded and most literally drowned in money. Obviously, overfunding the strategic sector comes at the cost of underfunding almost everything else (like urban infrastructure). That’s why the town looks so grim.
We have successfully documented the entire Russian missiles industry, mapping 28 of its key enterprises. Read our first OSINT sample focusing on the Votkinsk Plant, a major producer of intercontinental ballistic missiles. How does it make weaponry?
The strategic missiles industry appears to be highly secretive and impenetrable to the observers. And yet, it is perfectly OSINTable, based on the publicly available sources. This investigation sample illustrates our approach and methodology (31 p.)
Our first and invaluable source is the state propaganda, such as the federal and regional TV channels, corporate media, social media and so on. It provides abundant visual evidence, particularly on the hardware used in the production of weaponry.
In August 1999, President Yeltsin appointed his FSB Chief Putin as the new Prime Minister. Same day, he named him as the official successor. Yet, there was a problem. To become a president, Putin had to go through elections which he could not win.
He was completely obscure.
Today, Putin is the top rank global celebrity. But in August 1999, nobody knew him. He was just an obscure official of Yeltsin's administration, made a PM by the arbitrary will of the sovereign. This noname clerk had like 2-3% of popular support
Soon, he was to face elections
By the time of Putin's appointment, Russia already had its most favoured candidate. It was Primakov. A former Yeltsin's Prime Minister who broke with Yeltsin to contest for power. The most popular politician in Russia with massive support both in masses and in the establishment.
In Russia, the supreme power has never ever changed as a result of elections. That simply never happened in history. Now that is because Russia is a (non hereditary) monarchy. Consequently, it doesn't have any elections. It has only acclamations of a sitting ruler
Obviously, there has been no elections of Putin in any meaningful sense. There have been only acclamations. And that is normal. His predecessor was successfully acclaimed with an approval rate of about 6%. Once you got the power, you will get your acclamation one way or another
Contrary to the popular opinion, Russia doesn't have any acclamation ("election") problem. It has a transition of power problem. Like Putin can get acclaimed again, and again, and again. But sooner or later, he dies. What next?
My team has documented the entire Russian missile manufacturing base. That is 28 key ballistic, cruise, hypersonic and air defence missile producing plants associated with four corporations of Roscosmos, Almaz-Antey, Tactical Missiles and Rostec
The link is in the first comment
Our report How Does Russia Make Missiles? is already available for download
By the next weekend, we will be publishing the first OSINT sample, illustrating our methodology & approach. The rest of our materials will be made available laterrhodus.com
Key takeaways:
1. Missile production is mostly about machining 2. You cannot produce components of tight precision and convoluted geometry otherwise 3. Soviet missiles industry performed most of its machining manually
That was extremely laborious and skill-intensive process