Thread by @ArtIntelFan

HOW THE WEST WAS FOOLED: The Grand Head Fake by the Russian Petro-Ruble State. A tall tale of oil & gas, wealth & military power. We peel to uncover the inception of deception; to have insight to what REALLY is going on. A thread. 1/48

With Russia (henceforth RU) we have 2 policies: domestic and international. We understand one, but are fooled by the other. Domestic policy is suppression, with 1 purpose, to prop the despot. What then is the purpose of the despot? This we seek to understand now. 2/48

If we believe the despot, he claims RU is infringed upon by an expanding NATO, purportedly a security threat. When we argue that countries have agency and the right to apply for NATO membership, we "lose". The NATO argument is one head fake of many. 3/48

Since the NATO angle fools some but not all, the despot needed another head fake. The rabbit he pulled out: Nazism! The claim: Ukraine must be freed from Nazi rule. When we counter that the President is Jewish, we "lose". The nazi story is a head fake. 4/

https://twitter.com/Chriskris72/status/1521382851496878080?s=20&t=YrzwUJJAlfPFS2DErsrSLw

When Ukrainian nationalists point out that RU wants to wipe out Ukraine (henceforth UA) identity & history, the Kremlin despot does not object. Because despite its basic truth, it is a means to an end and a convenient distraction away from the tyrant’s deeper aim. 5/48

How do we dig out the despot’s deep desire? We follow the MONEY. RU’s single largest revenue source, bar none, are fossil fuel exports. 6/48

Therefore, the single largest threat to its “national interest” (and by extension, its “national security” interest) is the fossil fuel market. Let us unpack this a bit. 7/48

In other countries, energy security is a key national interest. For RU, fossil fuel REVENUE (making moolah) is the most important national interest. Moolah is the blood of their patronage-secured kleptocracy. Without fossil-fuel moolah, RU collapses. 8/48

Since the state can collapse for lack of it, fossil-fuel moolah (“revenues”), is therefore also the key RU national SECURITY interest. Because this is a national security interest, it is a STRATEGIC interest, and so the RU military will be involved. More on this later. 9/48

Since it is a strategic interest, the need to secure fossil-fuel revenues (moolah) drives RU’s geopolitical calculations, it informs RU's international policy. And then, the purpose of RU’s domestic policy is to ensure support for RU’s international policies. 10/48

Revenue is a function of volume and price. Thus, any reduction in RU’s volume of fossil fuel export, or a drop in fossil fuel global prices, will have severe consequences for RU. So, the principal purpose of RU international actions is about both. 11/48

In short, RU geopolitical aim is “revenue”. Security is their convenient head fake. NATO expansionism, or nazism, or whatever crisis of the moment, all work well as pretext too. But we can’t ignore their key aim is to expand or protect fossil fuel export volume and prices. 12/48

What then are the key threats? To answer that, first we need to go further east, to Syria. Why prop up Syria? Some say RU wanted a larger role on the global stage, others say it was to keep their influence in the area. Rubbish! 13/48 news.com.au/world/middle-e…

Syria is about petro-money. Or more specifically, a life-threatening project: the QATAR-TURKEY PIPELINE! Or the rival IRAN PIPELINE. Guess where both projects run through? SYRIA! What better way for RU to kill both projects in one fell swoop, then to have troops in Syria? 14/48

RU troops in Syria is not about countering “color revolutions” or defending Assad, etc. It is about making sure pipeline competition to supply Europe is killed before it is born. It is about preventing Europe from having alternative pipelined gas sources. 15/48

The strategic purpose of RU military incursion in Syria is to ensure that Europe is kept hooked & tethered to RU fossil fuels. With the threat of gas coming from Arabian fields dead, the purpose of RU foreign policy in Europe is to cement European dependence to RU. How? 16/48

European fossil fuel dependence on RU was cemented through the Nord Stream project. At first RU’s Gazprom worked with Finnish company Neste. This is a story of corporate shell game. Finnish oil company Neste merges with Imatran Voima to form Fortum, which then… 17/48

…separates again into Fortum and Neste, and then Neste with Gazprom forms the joint company North Transgas Oy, which worked with Ruhrgas, which later becomes E.ON which then splits into E.ON and Uniper; then Wintershell & even BASF joins the game. Phew! 18/48

When the smoke cleared, we have RU on top controlling a fossil fuel behemoth named Nord Stream, a big Kraken with every dollar-sucking tentacle dug deep into the bowels of Europe: a leviathan leach! 19/48

How did RU do this? Well they identified a country susceptible to its influence operations. Germany with its lingering war-guilt feeding a pervasive hunger for “feel-good” reconciliation was, and remains, an excellent RU influence operation target. 20/48

Did RU get anywhere with their German influence operations? What do you think? 21/48

For example, shortly before leaving office, the German Chancellor signed the deal that created the Nord Stream 2 project in 2005. 22/48

The Chancellor’s signature was nicely rewarded, becoming chairman of the company behind Nord Stream 2 and by taking on several directorial positions in Russian energy companies in the following years. Prost! 23/48

If RU can do this at the highest political levels, imagine the influence they have on other levels? RU’s deployment of “peace and reconciliation” political warfare works well in a Germany hungry for a utopian future where the world lives in peace BECAUSE of Germany. 24/48

There is so much to unpack with Nord Stream, we can write books about this. What is not talked about a lot—if at all—are the MILITARY linkages. Sweden was among the first to express concerns. (More about RU military & moolah starting with tweet 26.) To be continued... 25/48

To continue from tweet 25, "Military Linkages". Finnish military scholar Alpo Juntunen said that the public discussion on Nord Stream focused on various ecological aspects, BUT the clear MILITARY IMPLICATIONS to the pipeline are not openly discussed. Hah! 26/48

And then our Kremlin despot made it clear, that the ecological safety of the pipeline will be ensured by using the Russian Navy. Navy and ecology, wait, what?!? Now we see for sure a clear link between RU’s moolah making and its military. The buzzword used? “Ecology”. 27/48

For the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, it was no secret that RU used its military resources to protect this new fossil fuel revenue infrastructure. Yet few wanted to see and many pretended to be blind to the Russian “MOOLAH-MILITARY” linkage. 28/48 navalnews.com/naval-news/202…

Today we have ample proof of the link between RU military action and fossil fuel revenues: Syria to kill any possible competing pipelines, and in Europe to clearly signal to one and all that any threat to the pipeline will be met with military force. 29/48

So, now we get to Ukraine. Why military action in Ukraine? Here are public reasons: NATO, NAZIs, Nationalism, etc. All plausible to varying degrees. The purpose of those reasons is to gain (as much as possible) domestic and international support. They’re head fakes. 30/48

RU's greatest moolah making (and thus strategic and security) threat is that its main pipelines run through UA. As long as UA leaders remained pliant, no problem for RU. 31/48

Here is the perfect Kremlin Pinocchio for any ex-Soviet republic: stiff & woody, good long lying nose, strings attached all the way to the Kremlin, no balls. (Kremlin wants a copy in Kyiv.) 32/48

We should not name names because Lukashenko might be insulted, his cute picture below. 33/48

RU has a good Pinocchio in Minsk. But the Kyiv Pinocchio fled. Those who came after were not Pinocchios at all: they have brass balls & no strings. With the security of the pipelines now at risk, for RU this is a matter of national & strategic interest, this means WAR! 34/48

But wait, there is more! UA today holds the second biggest known gas reserves in Europe. And since UA hasn’t even done a good exploration yet, more gas reserves can be found. Can UA gas potentially compete with GAZPROM in the future? Of course it can. Again, RU is not happy. 35/

Yet, UA’s enormous reserves of energy remain largely untapped. Today, Ukraine has a low annual reserve usage rate of about 2 percent. They import gas. Why? 36/48

When RU (as USSR then) started large-scale gas extraction in the 1970s (in Western Siberia), they stole the needed expertise and gas exploration/extraction capacity from UA. Yes, RU did that. That is RU’s idea of friendship and brotherly love towards UA. 37/48

As a result of the outflow of talent and capacity, UA’s gas resources remain today insufficiently developed, underused, and unexplored. 38/48

But wait, there is more! RU isn’t in Donbas because of Nazis, but something darker. Coal! The discovered coal reserves of industrial categories amount to 57 billion tons in Donbas alone. Assuming an annual production of 100 million tons, these reserves will last 570 years. 39/48

But wait there is more! UA total confirmed uranium reserves is the largest in Europe. Not a bad way to also impound cheap nuclear fuel for electricity and sell more gas instead. Also, UA (with RU and Australia) has the largest iron ore reserves in the world. 40/48

But wait, there is more! UA also has the largest reserves of manganese & titanium in Europe, and holds the 2nd place in the world in terms of graphite reserves. 41/48

And then there is the Black Sea. UA's access to the Black Sea is a threat because the potential fossil fuel reserves in the Black Sea Shelf may be significant strategically for RU. Either RU alone gets it, or UA has to be part of RU. 42/48
shalegas.in.ua/en/ukraine-bla…

If a key purpose of RU military is to secure state revenue stream, than UA is a strategic target. A defiant UA represents a significant threat to the security of RU pipelines. Also, UA oil/gas fields represent a potential competitive threat to RU fossil fuel revenues. 43/48

The two factors together (RU pipeline security & competitive threat from UA reserves) provide enough reason for RU to go to war to install a Pinocchio in Kyiv. (It would also block UA from exploiting Black Sea fossil fuel reserves.) 44/48

And then there are other natural resource reserves in UA that RU could exploit & create new income streams from (eg. coal, oil reserves, iron ore, etc.) wherever it controls UA territory. 45/48

To conclude, it would be foolish to believe the invasion of UA is about NATO or Nazis. This is about protecting RU’s MONEY tree, because some branches lie inside UA. And then perhaps profiting from captured territory later. The invasion is an investment. Good old greed. 46/48

Therefore, RU actions in UA simply continue their past behaviors of military deployment to remove any competitive or infrastructure threat to RU revenues (as in Syria). 47/48

Despite stiff sanctions, RU's currency flourishes, boosted by elevated oil/gas prices. If the international community really wants to send a message, nobody should be buying RU fossil fuel exports anymore. Ultimately, gas revenue is what this invasion is all about. 48/End

p.s. Moolah is a slang term that means "money." Experts know this word was coined in the United States around 1920. Example of usage: "We’re going to use all of the moolah we just won to feed everyone on the planet."-- from Ready Player One: A Novel