Ukraine Police released screenshots from a Telegram group belonging to the Russian army officers, created 3 days after the start of the war. Screenshots reveal internal discussions and Russian shock in the early stages of the war🧵
Early message exchanges on 27-28 February include Russian officers listing casualties and attempting to find each other. Not everyone got killed - many troops wandered off due to lack of comms.
One soldier reports he had to take duties as a battalion commander since his 'kombat' vanished. Another Russian soldier shared photos of a smashed up column which took significant damage.
They also shared thoughts on the methods of using conscripts in the invasion.
As the situation greatly deteriorated for Russians in late March, officers continued looking for their friends but also shared internal scuffles between high command and officers which resulted in some of the latter taken away by FSB.w
This conversation proves a number of facts and assumptions we've known from the start of the war - many Russians had no idea they were going to a war; they started taking immense losses from the start; scuffles and shock within the ranks continue to this day.
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Belarusian forces continue air reconnaissance but they do not enter Ukrainian airspace after two UAVs were taken down.
- Siversk direction
No changes. Continued shelling resulting in casualties among civilian population, and infrastructure damage.
- Kharkiv direction
Continued shelling. Along the line and in near rears, Russian forces are creating pontoon crossings over water obstacles to shorten supply lines to the frontline. This is caused by attacks on ammo caches. Kharkiv city shelled substantially.
No changes except that the Belarusian forces yesterday conducted exercises at the command and communications points. This allows to them to test communication and commanding points aimed for combat activities.
Generally speaking this may indicate preparation for hostilities so the situation occasionally shakes up. However, no forming of the strike groups is observed. The situation generally remains calm.
In general, the situation at the frontlines is stable, it will not change significantly soon.
Directions:
Belarus Armed Forces:
Volyn-Polesye northern directions are combined into one. Volyn-Polesye – no changes, the enemy is conducting reconnaissance, continues covering state border and testing combat-readiness of the troops.
40-50km from Ukrainian border in Belarus the Iskander missile brigade ready to strike Ukrainian territory. Activity of the Russian aviation in this direction is declining.
Northern direction
Sumy, Chernihiv – continued shelling of civilian infrastructure.
The duration of the war depends on depth of theater, strength of sides, and objectives. 🇷🇺 objectives are way out of their strength. They have lost war at Strategic level by end of March, when they could not capture Kyiv.
Soon they will loose at Operational level, when they won't be able to attack, then at Tactical level, which might not be soon however, as 🇷🇺 has shown incredible stubbornness.
I want to tell you a story about one Bashkir man whose name was Rif (pron. R-e-e-f).
Bashkirs are native people of Bashkortostan region in Russia, which lies on the border between Europe and Asia. Get a glimpse of what the norm is for a large proportion of the Russian citizens.
When I last saw him in 2010, Rif was around 55. All his life he lived in a village Uzungulovo, about 30km from Beloretsk town in Ural mountains of Russia. This region is known for vast forests, fertile plains, wide rivers, tall mountains, and lakes full of fish.
I knew Rif as a next door neighbour of my mother’s childhood friend Elena who bought a plot in Uzungulovo village a few years prior. She lived in a large city of Magnitogorsk and stayed in the village during weekends.