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Kamil Galeev Profile picture
@kamilkazani
May 16, 2022 • 12 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
That's Mikhail Khodaryonok. Out of all people in the room he is the most sober one. Why? Well, may be because he's the only one with the substantial military experience. He's a career officer of the air defence who turned to a pundit career only after retirement (not a thread)
Khodaryonok used to be a senior operative officer in the Russian General Staff. Most Russian pundits judged the military capacity of the Russian army based on official propaganda. Khodaryonok - on his lived experience. Now wonder he is way more pessimistic about the war
Khodaryonok published a pessimistic prognosis about the Russian invasion of Ukraine back on February 3, long before it started. Many pundits expected a quick Russian victory. But the one who actually worked in the Russian General Staff didn't believe in it nvo.ng.ru/realty/2022-02…
Some Khodaryonok's points he raised back on February 3, three weeks before the Russian invasion:

- Pundits are wrong about the political situation in Ukraine. Many claim that nobody iwould defend the "regime in Kyiv". That's false. They will, including the Russian-speakers
- Pundits claim that Russia can win in a few hours by destroying Ukrainian army with "a mighty artillery strike". Well, even a term "mighty artillery strike" suggests it were the Politruks who made it up and not the military. It's propaganda. It's also factually wrong. They won't
- Pundits claim that Ukrainian army is in disarray. Well, it used to be back in 2014. Back then it used to be a very much deteriorated version of the Soviet army. Since then it improved immensely. It is now organised on very different principles and largely by NATO standards
- Pundits claim that the Western countries won't send a single soldier to die for Ukraine. Probably they won't. But they will support Ukraine massively "There is no doubt that in the case of war, the USA and NATo will reincarnate some version of lend lease much alike WWII"
- Pundits expect Russia to win in days or hours. They forget that the USSR spent more than 10 years exterminating guerrillas in Western Ukraine. Now Russia will face guerrillas in urban landscapes that naturally favour a weaker and less heavily armed side of the conflict
- Conclusions. There will be no Blitzkrieg in Ukraine. Experts who claim that Russia will defeat Ukraine in "8 minutes", "10 minutes" and even in "30-40 minutes are wrong". Best of all, forget about your jingoist fantasies and never bring them up again
I very much recommend to translate Khodoryonok's prognosis from back on February 3 and publish it as a full length thread. It's really the most astute, detailed and shockingly precise prognosis of the future war that I read. That's literally Cassandra-level of prophesying
Some wrote that my prognosis from Feb 27 aged well and I take this as a compliment. But Khodoryonok's article was *waaay* more precise and came out 3 weeks earlier. He predicted the course of this war before it even started. That's the power of a true expertise & lived experience
TL;DR Out of all predictions and prognoses about the Z-war that I ever read or hear about, Khodaryonok's one was the most precise, like unbelievably precise. I don't exclude the possibility that this guy understands the situation better than anyone else. The end of not a thread

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More from @kamilkazani

Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Nov 2
For decades, any resistance to the Reaganomics has been suppressed using the false dichotomy: it is either “capitalism” (= which meant Reaganomics) or socialism, and socialism doesn’t work

Now, as there is the growing feeling that Reaganomics don’t work, the full rehabilitation of socialism looks pretty much inevitable
I find it oddly similar to how it worked in the USSR. For decades, the whole propaganda apparatus had been advancing the false dichotomy: it is either socialism, or capitalism (= meaning robber barons)
Now, as there is a growing feeling that the current model does not work, we must try out capitalism instead. And, as capitalism means robber barons, we must create robber barons

We have to distribute all the large enterprises between the organized crime members. This is the way
Read 4 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Oct 29
Truth is: the words like Rus/Russian had many and many ambiguous and often mutually exclusive meanings, and not only throughout history, but, like, simultaneously.

For example, in the middle ages, the word "Rus" could mean:
1. All the lands that use Church Slavonic in liturgy. That is pretty much everything from what is now Central Russia, to what is now Romania. Wallachians, being the speakers of a Romance language were Orthodox, and used Slavonic in church -> they're a part of Rus, too
2. Some ambiguous, undefined region that encompasses what is now northwest Russia & Ukraine, but does not include lands further east. So, Kiev & Novgorod are a part of Rus, but Vladimir (-> region of Moscow) isn't

These two mutually exclusive notions exist simultaneously
Read 6 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Oct 27
The greatest Western delusion about China is, and always has been, greatly exaggerating the importance of plan. Like, in this case, for example. It sounds as if there is some kind of continuous industrial policy, for decades

Which is a huuuuuuge misrepresentation of reality
It is more like:

1. Mao Zedong dies. His successors be like, wow, he is dead. Now we can build a normal, sane economy. That means, like in the Soviet Union

2. Fuck, we run out of oil. And the entire development plan was based upon an assumption that we have huge deposits of it
3. All the prior plans of development, and all the prior industrial policies go into the trashbin. Because again, they were based upon an assumption that we will be soon exporting more oil than Saudi Arabia, and without that revenue we cannot fund our mega-projects
Read 14 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Oct 9
Yes. Behind all the breaking news about the capture of small villages, we are missing the bigger pattern which is:

The Soviet American war was supposed to be fought to somewhere to the west of Rhine. What you got instead is a Soviet Civil War happening to the east of Dnieper
If you said that the battles of the great European war will not be fought in Dunkirk and La Rochelle, but somewhere in Kupyansk (that is here) and Rabotino, you would have been once put into a psych ward, or, at least, not taken as a serious person Image
The behemoth military machine had been built, once, for a thunderbolt strike towards the English Channel. Whatever remained from it, is now decimating itself in the useless battles over the useless coal towns of the Donetsk Oblast
Read 6 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Sep 7
Yes, and that is super duper quadruper important to understand

Koreans are poor (don't have an empire) and, therefore, must do productive work to earn their living. So, if the Americans want to learn how to do anything productive they must learn it from Koreans etc
There is this stupid idea that the ultra high level of life and consumption in the United States has something to do with their productivity. That is of course a complete sham. An average American doesn't do anything useful or important to justify (or earn!) his kingly lifestyle
The kingly lifestyle of an average American is not based on his "productivity" (what a BS, lol) but on the global empire Americans are holding currently. Part of the imperial dynamics being, all the actually useful work, all the material production is getting outsourced abroad
Read 8 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Sep 1
Reading Tess of the d'Urbervilles. Set in southwest England, somewhere in the late 1800s. And the first thing you need to know is that Tess is bilingual. He speaks a local dialect she learnt at home, and the standard English she picked at school from a London-trained teacher
So, basically, "normal" language doesn't come out of nowhere. Under the normal conditions, people on the ground speak all the incomprehensible patois, wildly different from each other

"Regular", "correct" English is the creation of state
So, basically, the state chooses a standard (usually, based on one of the dialects), cleanses it a bit, and then shoves down everyone's throats via the standardized education

Purely artificial construct, of a super mega state that really appeared only by the late 1800s
Read 10 tweets

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