It is senseless to shelter Putin from the sense that he is losing. He will figure that out for himself, and he will act to protect himself. 1/17
Russians are not cornered. The Russian army is not cornered. It is an invading force. When defeated, units just retreat across the border to Russia. 2/17
Putin rules in virtual reality, where there is always an escape route. He cannot be cornered in Ukraine, because Ukraine is a real place. 3/17
It is hard for people in other societies to grasp that Putin is a dictator who controls his country's media. He rules by changing the subject. 4/17
Putin changes the subject all the time. The last time Russia invaded Ukraine, its media changed the subject to Syria from one day to the next, and Russians went along. 5/17
When Russia invaded Ukraine this February, the media quickly adjusted from saying that invasion was impossible to saying it was inevitable. Russians went along. 6/17
If defeated in reality, Putin will just declare victory on television, and Russians will believe him, or pretend to. He does not need our help for that. 7/17
It is senseless to create an "off-ramp" in the real world, when all Putin needs is one in a virtual world he completely controls. Talking of "off-ramps" just gives Russian leaders something to laugh about in what are otherwise difficult times. 8/17
To be sure, Putin might err and wait too long to declare victory in the virtual world. In that case he loses power. We cannot save him from such a misjudgment, and it is misguided to try. 9/17
Putin's power over media will be complete until the moment when it ceases. There is no interval where our actions in the real world will make a difference. Either our off-ramps are unnecessary or they are irrelevant. 10/17
It is grotesque to ask the Ukrainians to make decisions about the war for the comfort of Russian television producers, who don't take direction from the real world anyway. 11/17
Misunderstanding Russia through clichés of "cornering" and "off-ramps" will make the war last longer, by distracting from the simple necessity of Russian defeat. 12/17
Ukraine is a very different story. Zelensky, unlike Putin, is democratically elected, feels responsible for his people, and governs in a world where others matter. 13/17
Ukraine has a press that the government does not direct. Zelensky cannot simply change the subject. He has to bring his people along on any major decision. 14/17
Unlike Putin, Zelensky has to make a case to his people to end this war. He therefore does need help, both to win the war and in telling Ukrainians what comes next. 15/17
Unlike Russian soldiers, Ukrainians have nowhere else to go. They cannot just go home. The war is fought in their country. They will return to their homes and rebuild. 16/17
Ending the war means thinking more about the Ukrainian people and their future, and and worrying less about problems that Putin does not in fact have. 17/17
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