We’re often asked: “So you care about the long-term future. Why don’t you recommend that more people work on climate change?”
Our new problem profile by @benjamin_hilton:
80000hours.org/problem-profil…
5 reasons climate change is a strong choice, but not always the best:
1/8
Our new problem profile by @benjamin_hilton:
80000hours.org/problem-profil…
5 reasons climate change is a strong choice, but not always the best:
1/8
1) We think that climate change is much less likely to cause human extinction (< .01% chance in the next century) vs other anthropogenic risks like pandemics or AI (@tobyordoxford estimates total existential risk in the next 100 years as 1 in 6).
2/8
2/8
2) Climate change might have significant indirect effects.
It could increase instability, increase the chances of great power conflict, cause migration crises… and these could exacerbate other existential risks.
So it’s an important risk factor.
3/8
It could increase instability, increase the chances of great power conflict, cause migration crises… and these could exacerbate other existential risks.
So it’s an important risk factor.
3/8
3) On the other hand, all risks have indirect effects.
E.g. a pandemic could also increase instability and the chances of conflict.
It’s not clear the indirect effects of climate change are larger than the indirect effects of other problems facing humanity.
4/8
E.g. a pandemic could also increase instability and the chances of conflict.
It’s not clear the indirect effects of climate change are larger than the indirect effects of other problems facing humanity.
4/8
4) Climate change is far less neglected than other major global issues.
Current spending is over $640 billion a year. Compare that to ~$100 million for AI safety.
There may be some important neglected areas though, like specific tech (e.g. hot rock geothermal).
5/8
Current spending is over $640 billion a year. Compare that to ~$100 million for AI safety.
There may be some important neglected areas though, like specific tech (e.g. hot rock geothermal).
5/8
5) But climate change does seem more tractable than other risks.
There’s a clear measure of success (how much greenhouse gas we are emitting) and lots of experience on what works. That's a reason to work on it.
6/8
There’s a clear measure of success (how much greenhouse gas we are emitting) and lots of experience on what works. That's a reason to work on it.
6/8
We'd love any feedback on this new problem profile!
Whether there’s something we’ve got wrong, some wording we could improve, or you want to tell us you loved reading it – we’d really appreciate it if you could tell us what you think.
forms.gle/cstAcFmuBnJFjn…
7/8
Whether there’s something we’ve got wrong, some wording we could improve, or you want to tell us you loved reading it – we’d really appreciate it if you could tell us what you think.
forms.gle/cstAcFmuBnJFjn…
7/8
Overall, if you have the right personal fit, it might be best for you to work on climate change.
But for many of our readers, it’s probably even better to work on one of our higher priority issues:
80000hours.org/problem-profil…
8/8
But for many of our readers, it’s probably even better to work on one of our higher priority issues:
80000hours.org/problem-profil…
8/8
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