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May 19 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
Senior U.S. defense officials wrapped up a briefing this morning describing how the Biden admin sees Russia's war in Ukraine on day 85 – nearing three months in.

Here are some of the highlights, including U.S. diplomats returning to Ukraine and the latest on the ground.
Ukraine is continuing to take back areas near Kharkiv, after it pushed Russia 25 miles out of the city a couple of weeks ago, and nearly up to the Russian border.

UK officials believe that Putin has fired 🇷🇺 lieutenant general who failed to take Kharkiv
Russia has made no major gains in the northern Donbas, where Putin's military commanders have reverted to sending in smaller units after bigger formations failed to take ground

Russia launched the Donbas on April 18th, more than a month ago.
Russia's sortie rate over Ukraine dropped by over 100 per day in the past 24 hours after the seeming prisoner swap of the Azovstal defenders in Mariupol.

The remaining strikes are mostly focused on the Donbas and around the fighting in Kharkiv.
No major changes in the south to report, where Western officials continue to believe that Russia will launch a referendum in occupied Kherson.

Russia has tried to advance on Mykolaiv, but has had no luck. And Odesa is *NOT* under threat of amphib assault
The U.S. is also seeing indications that Russian commanders are getting fired for poor performance in Ukraine, but is offering few specifics

UK MoD said this morning that it is "unclear" if 🇷🇺 top military officer Valery Gerasimov still has Putin's trust
It's not clear whether U.S. Marines are heading back into Ukraine to defend the American embassy in Kyiv, which had a soft opening this week

The Senate also confirmed Bridget Brink to be the first permanent U.S. ambassador to Ukraine in more than 3 years
It's not clear whether U.S. Marines are heading back into Ukraine to defend the American embassy in Kyiv, which had a soft opening this week

The Senate also confirmed Bridget Brink to be the first permanent U.S. ambassador to Ukraine in more than 3 years
Russia also isn't sending back all of its units into Ukraine at 100 percent, U.S. officials believe, quickly combining BTGs that failed to seize Kyiv for Donbas offensive.

🇷🇺 still has 106 BTGs in 🇺🇦 and has made no mobilization effort "of a mass scale"
Russia's strategy in the Donbas also appears to be changing as the offensive has slowed, per the senior U.S. defense official

• 🇷🇺 switching to smaller units after failed frontal assaults that followed artillery barrages
• 🇷🇺 now pursuing more modest objectives in Donbas
And logistical issues have also slowed down Russia's assault, the U.S. believes.

But the fight could still be prolonged because of Russia's significant advantage in numbers and ability to draw upon more combat power.

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More from @JackDetsch

Jack Detsch Profile picture
May 11
NEW: China is increasingly embarrassed by Russia's war in Ukraine, Britain's Defense Secretary said on Tuesday.

After the damage Putin has caused in Ukraine: “How many world leaders are going to be taking Putin on line two?” Ben Wallace told reporters.
foreignpolicy.com/2022/05/11/u-k…
“I think China views instability [as] bad for business,” British Secretary of State for Defense Ben Wallace said. “I think probably China is rather embarrassed by the behavior of Putin. He’s a rather inconvenient friend, and … you don’t see a full-throated support.”
But Russia’s relationship with China is competitive, as the two grapple for influence everywhere from the Arctic and Central Asia to Central Africa.

Wallace said Russia is “really worried” about China dominating the high north and could be in a weaker position after the war.
Read 7 tweets
Jack Detsch Profile picture
May 10
A senior U.S. defense official wrapped up a briefing about an hour ago with an update on Russia's war in Ukraine on day 76.

Here are some of the most important notes, including more American training of Ukrainian troops and weapons deliveries
U.S. believes that Russia has honed in on the northern line of advance out of Izyum into the Donbas, focused on Sloviansk.

Two other advances have stalled due to Ukrainian resistance.

Russia is in control of Popasna, after confirmation from 🇺🇦 officials
Russia is now up to 99 battalion tactical groups, after adding two airborne groups in the past 24 hr

🇷🇺 has added about ~15 BTGs into 🇺🇦 in past 2 weeks. But it's not clear that the units are in great shape – and the Wagner Group is asking for more help.
Read 13 tweets
Jack Detsch Profile picture
May 6
NEW: Western officials believe that Putin has a wide menu of options to escalate the war in Ukraine on 'Victory Day'

Russia could declare victories on unconquered territories, hold parades in occupied areas of Ukraine, or announce a mass mobilization.
foreignpolicy.com/2022/05/06/wor…
Western officials told us Russia is also likely to announce phony elections to annex Ukraine's occupied territories of Donetsk, Luhansk & Kherson on or around May 9.

That move would mirror declarations of sovereignty in 🇺🇦 breakaway territories before the full-scale invasion.
Ukrainian officials fear that Moscow may look to hold a victory parade amid the rubble of Mariupol, a strategic Ukrainian port city that has been under siege by Russian troops for nearly two months.

(Russia has denied these reports.)
Read 8 tweets
Jack Detsch Profile picture
Apr 29
DoD’s top spokes was just asked if the US still believed Putin was “rational” after invading Ukraine

John Kirby gave an answer lasting several minutes, pausing with emotion over the tragic war.

“I can’t talk to his psychology, but we can all speak to his depravity,” Kirby said.
Kirby, who attained the rank of rear admiral in the US Navy, said he has lost friends in combat.

Images of Russian atrocities in Ukraine give lie to Putin’s “B.S.” about defending Russians and stopping nazism.

“None of them, none of them, were threatened by Ukraine,” he said.
Kirby said it is “hard to square” Putin’s rhetoric of protecting Russians with what Putin is “actually doing to innocent people, shot in the back of the head, hands tied behind their backs.”

The killings of pregnant women and the bombings of hospitals are “just unconscionable.”
Read 4 tweets
Jack Detsch Profile picture
Apr 29
Senior U.S. defense officials wrapped up a briefing a little while ago with an update on Russia's war in Ukraine. It's now Day 65.

Here's what we learned, including new U.S. military aid flights to the region and Russia's (lack of) progress in Donbas.
Russia launched about 50 missiles into Ukraine over the past 24 hours, a senior U.S. defense official said, although thick clouds over Donbas has mitigated American visibility.

50 missiles is about the avg launches per day around the mid-March timeframe
U.S. sanctions & export controls have taken a bite out of Russia's ability to restock PGMs, because it can't get high-tech components from abroad.

So Russia is dropping dumb bombs on Mariupol, even as some 🇷🇺 units move north out of the city.
Read 14 tweets
Jack Detsch Profile picture
Apr 28
NEW: The Taliban has been parading through Kabul with some of $7B in weapons & equip left behind after the US military exit

Some US officials & fmr Afghan officials fear Taliban could NOW use US-provided rifles or surveillance drones (w/ @RobbieGramer)
foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/28/the…
There are more than 250,000 automatic rifles, 95 drones, and more than a million mortar rounds that require little training to use, officials familiar told us.

If the Taliban don’t use them, the cash-starved militant group could pass them on to U.S. adversaries or terror groups
In recent weeks, the Taliban have been seen parading through the streets of Afghanistan in US armored vehicles that were first provided to the Afghan army.

The US left 23,825 Humvees in Afghanistan, including armored gun truck variants & nearly 900 combat vehicles
Read 6 tweets

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