Cross-post from my Telegram:

Russians appear to be exploiting a large breach in Ukrainian lines they have created over the last week at Popasnaya, which already threatens to cut off Severodonetsk-Lisichansk from its southern lines of communication.
While this breach is unlikely to collapse the Ukrainian position in the Donbass outright given their defenses at Slavyansk, it certainly compromises the eastern salient.
This also suggests UAF troops in the Donbass have been attributed to the point where they are losing combat effectiveness. This is indicated by their lateral (!) transfer of multiple brigades from the Kharkov sector to the Donbass in an attempt to stabilize the front line.
This has now also seen them lose significant ground north of Kharkov. The Ukrainians played themselves with the "Kharkov counteroffensive" - in seeking to draw off Russian forces in the Donbass they instead compromised their own defenses in the region.
Given the likelihood of some kind of Russian position (of unknown shape and size at this time) south of the Seversky Donets, the western line of communications out of the Severodonetsk area is also in extreme danger.

/end
Addendum: by the way I un-privated my account for a bit, feel free to RT away.

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More from @ArmchairW

May 21
Front rollup for the day:

Russians took some ground up near Liman, secured Oskol, and took additional villages north and south of Popasnaya. Assault beginning on Liman itself.
Fighting continues in Severodonetsk.

Nothing too dramatic. Rybar map from yesterday. Image
Reports came in today that the Ukrainians are preparing cities much farther to the rear - Dnipro, Poltava, etc. - for defense. Probably the line we'll be looking at for the Fall campaign unless things accelerate significantly in the near term.
What may be significant is that the Russians have finally secured Oskol and the lines of communication east from Izyum running through that town. This may presage further action in the Izyum direction.
Read 4 tweets
May 20
Alright team, I got a request yesterday to follow up my earlier podcast on the XM5 "carbine" with a thread on what the Army should have done rather than adopt a 1950s-style battle rifle.

Well, here we go. ImageImageImage
Of course the first thing to realize is that you don't design weapons from the top down, you do it from the bottom up. So what are the actual requirements for this new rifle and light machine gun?

Well, what does the infantry -have- to do, and what are "luxuries" on the design?
The infantry's primary function is to engage the enemy in close, personal combat, assaulting their positions to seize them or defeating enemy assaults. This is something no other military branch does tactically.*

* it's over military policebros Image
Read 19 tweets
May 18
CNN just dropped a video "on the ground" at Belgorovka - nowhere near actual bridgehead, surrounded by extremely nervous Ukrainian soldiers, and showing at least one destroyed Ukrainian tank at 2:40.

Draw your own conclusions. ;)

By the way that initial shot of the Ukrainians recovering a "captured" Russian tank seems very staged, they likely set up a little show knowing the media was coming in.

Of course I'm sure "reliable sources" CNN would disclose to their viewers they were being taken for a ride. ;)
Also, holy hell, CNN just revealed the location of a Ukrainian obstacle on live cable television lol
Read 5 tweets
May 17
Okay team, let's take a look at a brain-dead talking point that's been making the rounds lately. Namely, that regardless of the outcome of the war in Ukraine that Russia's strategic position will worsen due to the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO. ImageImageImageImage
This assumes that Sweden and Finland will actually, y'know, join NATO. Because the Turks are not happy about these most recent developments. Image
This also assumes that Sweden and Finland will participate fully in NATO and not have a large number of caveats to their membership - the Russians seem to have signaled they have no problem if they join on the model of Norway, which heavily limits foreign basing. Image
Read 13 tweets
May 4
A short thread on everything wrong with this slide.

I just look at this and it keeps getting worse.
For starters it has massive Afghanistan spaghetti chart energy, and we all know how that war turned out.

Like imagine trying to brief it in under five minutes. Image
Just a hailstorm of enemy unit icons with random identifiers and echelon indicators on them, signifying absolutely nothing.

Also Izyum is not a big city. 27 BTGs is an entire army corps, if there were actually that many troops in the area it would look like a parking lot. Image
Read 14 tweets
Apr 29
A short thread on Western "analytical whiplash" with regards to this current war in Ukraine.

Bluntly, there were incentives to exaggerate Russian capabilities before the war and downplay them after it started.

But let's start at the beginning. Image
The Russian military was generally regarded as an ineffectual husk of the Soviet one through the 1990s and into the 21st century. Chechnya was the "exhibit A," and the 2008 Russo-Georgian War didn't show any great deal of improvement. ImageImage
The 2014 Russian seizure of the Crimea and intervention in the Donbass were, however, wakeup calls in the West - well beyond any capabilities the Russians actually demonstrated at the time. Russia became a new, sophisticated threat overnight. Image
Read 13 tweets

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