Thread by @tomearlAU

Transport drives EU oil demand, so a Russian oil embargo would massively affect transport. But crude is fungible and the EU refines 500 million tonnes annually. The real problem is diesel dependency, which demands EU action beyond switching crude suppliers. A short 🧵.

The EU consumes 3.6 times more diesel vs petrol. The glut of EU refined petrol means it's a net exporter, while diesel demand exceeds refined output. So we import an extra 10%, almost all of it from Russia. This is not easily replaced.

The post-covid recovery appears to be complete. Projecting Q1 2022 data, diesel demand has rebounded. Without measures to reduce demand, it's likely to be higher this year than in 2019 - unless there's a recession. This will make Europe’s diesel problem worse

Looking further ahead, the current Fit for 55 measures proposed by the Commission will not do enough to reduce oil consumption - although, by 2025, some diesel will be replaced with petrol.

We looked at reducing oil demand, what action it requires by individuals, companies, & all levels of government. Combining these short-term measures could save 39 Mtoe of oil or 17 Mtoe of diesel. Two particular measures help short-term diesel demand reduction ⬇️

1. The misguided fuel duty tax cuts implemented across the EU must not be renewed. They only increase fuel demand by an estimated 12.9 Mtoe and mostly benefit the rich, far better to give vulnerable households direct cash payments.

bit.ly/3Nm0M6F

2. Trucks can play an oversized role. Easily implementable actions such as speed limit reductions that are enforced, aerodynamic devices, better tyres & efficient driving, combined, can save 5 Mtoe of diesel or around a quarter of annual Russian imports

To lock in these benefits, the EU must focus on fleet electrification: high mileage, high turn-over vehicles with disproportionate impact. 84% of diesel consumed by new car registrations is from corporate fleets. Electrifying these is the highest priority

Stronger action on #Fitfor55 & new measures for fleets are crucial. #REPowerEU is not just about energy and security, it's a key mechanism to accelerate the EU’s efforts to mitigate climate change

For more, read: bit.ly/3wzMWH6 Full study coming soon