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Michael Story ⚓ Profile picture
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May 20 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Of the 93 cases of Monkeypox outside Africa where the patient's sex is known, 100% are male (127 confirmed cases overall). Suggests that casual contact probably isn't the driver unless these lads are socialising in *extremely* sex-segregated environments

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Good summary here by @maxdkozlov

- Monkeypox cases mostly linked to all-male sex parties, fetish festivals, saunas
- Key thing to watch for is larger numbers of female cases as that would indicate transmission beyond the initial network

science.org/content/articl…
Disease transmission inside all-male sexual networks is a common pattern: the UK is also currently experiencing a drug-resistant shigella outbreak following those contours (though spreading much more slowly)

gov.uk/government/new…

who.int/emergencies/di… ImageImage
Similar situation again with the UK Hep A outbreak which spread through male sexual networks and was largely contained through targeted vaccination by 2018
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31384736/ ImageImage
The first female case of monkeypox was reported today, in Spain (143 cases overall, patient sex known in 105 cases, of which 104 are male)
The sole female monkeypox case is still unconfirmed, but dozens more male cases are appearing. The longer we go without a big rise in female cases, the more it looks like the recent Shigella or Hep A outbreaks: fast spread inside male sexual networks but petering out outside them

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More from @MWStory

Michael Story ⚓ Profile picture
Dec 12, 2021
In the early 30s people were boarding airships in Germany to spend 5 full days in flight all the way to to Brazil, steadily progressing at 70 miles an hour over the Atlantic
Apparently the flights were only commercially viable because stamp collectors paid extra for the air mail they carried; a kind of early progress-enhancing DAO (as they were for the moon landings, where day-of-flight documents served as life insurance for the Apollo crews)
Wow the cabins in this are extraordinary
Read 5 tweets
Michael Story ⚓ Profile picture
Nov 19, 2021
The western public health institutions which sagged most when facing their first real crisis seemed to employ lots of emotionally volatile ‘political’ people before the pandemic, and we probably should have seen the failure to kick them out as a sign of fundamental unseriousness
When trying to evaluate whether other institutions will survive the first real test of their mission, “are you cohesive and focused enough to ignore and resist political scissor statements?” seems like the right question to ask
An army which is easily distracted by whatever is fashionable to argue about today (or is hoping to draw attention away from material failings by talking up easy and time-consuming politics) doesn’t seem like one that can fight effectively
Read 5 tweets
Michael Story ⚓ Profile picture
Oct 30, 2021
A common Fatfire thesis is if you just want to make money, you should start or buy-and-grow a boring unglamorous business- you won't have to compete as hard with smarter people because they won't like the risk and will mostly prefer to work on something more prestigious
That means you'll be able to figure out solutions to problems that others in your space cannot. I've been thinking about it more because in Taiwan I'm not sure that pattern holds, as many families have a family business that gets free consulting from their highly capable kids
Eg many lawyer pals give free regulatory advice to their parents manufacturing businesses, and you do seem to see higher quality management decision making in smaller firms in a way that's consistent with this human capital getting seeded in like that
Read 4 tweets
Michael Story ⚓ Profile picture
Oct 12, 2021
It's incredibly hard to think about what goes on in other countries unprompted. It's not that ideas from foreign countries are dismissed for xenophobic reasons, it's just psychologically abnormal to even notice them at all, especially under stress
A lot of people who do compare policies between countries (eg the MPs who asked about covid stuff at the select committee) have spent periods living in other countries or are married to foreigners, it does seem to alter the default geographical scale of thinking
Obvs suspicious of anything which favours my own demographic so if anyone studies the long term effects of / associations with people who live in multiple countries
Read 4 tweets
Michael Story ⚓ Profile picture
Aug 21, 2021
Are any psychologists studying individual level cheemsing? Something like 'status homeostasis' - the internal alarm which starts to sound when we begin to achieve 'too much' or think 'too big'. People talking themselves out of applying for better jobs etc
It seems basically true that among richer people in richer countries the practical limits of what's possible for someone to achieve are rarely the barrier to improving a life, and psychological limits like "comfort zone" or anxieties about status gains play a much bigger role
There are massive rewards for those able to switch if off (and certain cultural scripts can make you and your whole society richer by drowning it out) but judging by revealed preferences it must be really hard to do, so who is studying how to do that?
Read 6 tweets
Michael Story ⚓ Profile picture
Aug 20, 2021
This is obviously silly but it's an interesting example of two trends:

1 the (poss unconscious?) reflexive defence of any decision made by 'authorities'

2 (related) the need to frame any institutional imposition on kids as somehow in their best interest

nytimes.com/2021/08/18/opi…
Reflexive deference to authority is easiest to spot when the authority changes position, and suddenly new pathologies emerge to explain what was previously the virtuous viewpoint
framing institutional impositions on kids as being in their best interest disguises how much of their time is wasted at school because it recasts inefficiencies as learning opportunities. That's why homeschooling/tutoring takes so little time
Read 4 tweets

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