Dr Dan Goyal Profile picture
May 23 8 tweets 2 min read
Sometimes it’s difficult for experts to admit they were wrong.

Covid wasn’t a mild infection, and “taking it on the chin” led to a lot of death and disability.

SARS2 is a very high impact virus. We should have acted sooner and should be doing more, but…

We’re kind of stuck
🧵
There are of course just bad scientists and crooked advisers. Those who tell the boss whatever they want to hear. They find the arguments to support the bosses position.

IME, they are actually rare.

As much as we may like to believe in “evil” scientists, most believe in truth.
Most corruption of expert opinion is more subtle and creeping. And in advisory positions, it gets tied to the job and career.

It’s where you draw the line that defines your scientific integrity.
After the first wave most were quite confident they got it wrong.

And by the Alpha variant, almost all those who advised and advocated for unmitigated infections knew they got it wrong.

And by Delta almost all experts realised where we were - in trouble!
But politicians and the minority became restless and forced the “living with it” narrative.

The data of course did not support such easing of restrictions or removing the layers of protection. But they did it anyway.

Not because of scientific advice, in spite of it.
And you will note, how many scientists and advisors distanced themselves from administrations who failed to take heed at this point.

THE LINE WAS Drawn, by most.

I think the line should have been drawn earlier and publicly, but the point…we are stuck, not forgiving mistakes.
Some have quite clearly said they were wrong or openly changed position. Respect!

Some haven’t. Many know they were wrong but they are stuck. Politicians are unforgiving and the public can also hold a grudge.

Yes, a few bad opportunistic scientists remain…
But there are no longer Zero Covid or anti-Lockdown scientists (or very few). The vast majority of us (IMO) know where the big mistakes were and that we need to do better now.

My contention: the vast majority believe we should be doing more.

I hope they get heard.

#Forgiveness

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More from @danielgoyal

May 23
I know everyone is fed up of Covid, but this is IMPORTANT.

The ONS (UK Gov) have compared:

COVID versus The FLU

And the results are quite staggering.

TLDR; Covid much more risky than Flu; Younger people higher increase in risk than older.

Share pls.
[40-59yrs ⬇️] Image
This is important info if you are weighing up whether to get a booster or whether to wear a mask on the underground, etc...

And it should make us all think twice before going out and about if we have or may have Covid.

It does not mean we need to bring restrictions back!
The most crucial point in this analysis is that the ONS compared Covid deaths with Flu + Pneumonia deaths.

That is, comparing Covid with deaths from pneumonia or flu (combined).

Pneumonia is the biggest killer of all infectious diseases worldwide, including in the West.
Read 16 tweets
May 20
We have received our national update on Monkeypox.

The risk to the General population from Monkeypox remains low.

But the risk for frontline workers is not insignificant.

Frontline staff are more likely to encounter it pre-diagnosis, so I will be taking some precautions…
National recommendation is to manage patients with possible, probable or confirmed Monkeypox in negative pressure rooms. And use HCID (High Consequence Infectious Disease) level PPE.

Direct or close prolonged contact most risky.
We are being told mortality in Africa of this form of Monkeypox is 3.6%.

Progression is:

Fever, feeling washed out, and often headache.

Swollen generalised enlargement of lymph glands often comes next, accompanied by a rash evolving like this:
Read 11 tweets
May 20
Have we learned from the pandemic?

Some of us seemed to have…
Many of us are more grateful for those family members who survived - both illness and death.

Some have had some sort of realisation after losing loved ones or near misses, choosing to drop a day at work to have more time with their family, or just deciding to be present more.
Some are more grateful for their freedoms.

Some are grateful for living in a place with resources, where we can get vaccines and treatments and exercise our right to demand better.
Read 14 tweets
May 19
This week in Covid, those leaders pummelled and defeated by SARS2 begin trying to re-write history.

They, yet again, forget that pesky thing called science!

#TheWeekInCovid - a weekly "slightly" sarcastic summary of the pandemonium caused by the pandemic.
🧵
1. A new analysis from WHO that estimated around 20million Covid deaths have occurred worldwide was ceased upon by anti-public health commentators, as on initial inspection it seemed to paint a less damning picture. On closer inspection, it didn’t.
2. On the leader board of pandemic responses (excess deaths) the UK came 140th out of 200. Not as bad as Somalia at 141st.

3. At least it was better than the US at 156th, stuck between Namibia and Paraguay. In fairness, fewer people survive to old age in LICs, so that's OK.
Read 23 tweets
May 18
Despite all the arrogance of the West, we got Covid wrong. We are still getting Covid wrong.

Time to look East, at those thriving while "Living with Covid"

Japan: no lockdowns, no excess mortality, better economic performance, and more socialising...
🧵 Image
This, albeit a bit "cheesy" promotional video from Japan, shows how they have actually reduced all cause mortality.

Key points...

Japan's new normal via @YouTube
1. Following the science.
2. Masks - people accept this as the new norm.
3. Social distancing.
4. Reduce congestion in social spaces.
5. VENTILATION - train conductors actually go around opening windows, constant CO2 measures of venues, etc..
Read 12 tweets
May 18
It's hard trying to raise awareness of governments' failure to manage the pandemic properly.

It shouldn't be, but it is.

Why, and why keep going:

1. There is a small but powerful minority who want the public to forget about Covid, even if that means more death and disability.
Consumer confidence is hit hard when people are constantly reminded of Covid by masks and notices and the need to self-isolate. And when money is on the table we see co-ordinated disinformation campaigns and tactics (some nasty) to suppress those who are raising concerns.
2. There is another group, not really motivated by money, who rail at the thought of further mandates to control Covid. In fairness, many of them have suffered greatly either through loss of livelihood or loss of loved ones due to the secondary effects of restrictions (as have I)
Read 25 tweets

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