Thread by @ThePrintIndia

Putin’s accomplishment will have been to accelerate the decline of Russia in general terms and quite probably the end of his attempt to recreate a former imperial rule, says defence analyst François Heisbourg @FHeisbourg at #ThePrintOTC

@FHeisbourg No Ukrainian government whether in place or in exile — should the Russians manage to overthrow it — are going to work with Russia. Ukraine is, in a way, the new Poland, says defence analyst François Heisbourg @FHeisbourg at #ThePrintOTC

@FHeisbourg [Belarusian President] Lukashenko will obviously remain beholden o Putin but he is trying to establish some sort of distance, says defence analyst François Heisbourg @FHeisbourg at #ThePrintOTC

@FHeisbourg Because Russia has a strong relationship with India, the relationship between Moscow and Beijing is not an alliance relationship. If it were, the Russians would be alongside the Chinese in the Himalayas, says defence analyst François Heisbourg @FHeisbourg at #ThePrintOTC

@FHeisbourg Russia and China both want to have their free hands vis-à-vis the contingencies in their region which they consider to be particularly important, says defence analyst François Heisbourg @FHeisbourg at #ThePrintOTC

@FHeisbourg India of course has its own [grain stocks] but you have reserved them for your domestic contingencies — probably wisely so, says defence analyst François Heisbourg @FHeisbourg at #ThePrintOTC

@FHeisbourg Many of the countries who are grain importers…abstained from the UN General Assembly resolutions condemning the war in Ukraine. And now what is their reward? It is to go hungry, says defence analyst François Heisbourg @FHeisbourg at #ThePrintOTC

@FHeisbourg Russia is a strategic loser. China may want to squeeze the loser harder than it would normally do so...This is possible but I wouldn’t bet on it because the Chinese do tend to take a fairly long [term] view, says defence analyst François Heisbourg @FHeisbourg at #ThePrintOTC

@FHeisbourg China would welcome a Russia which would no longer be supporting India in the defence, industrial and diplomatic arenas but they haven’t been pushing for it, says defence analyst François Heisbourg @FHeisbourg at #ThePrintOTC

@FHeisbourg The West, to Putin’s apparent surprise, is much more united than it has been for quite some time, says defence analyst François Heisbourg @FHeisbourg at #ThePrintOTC

@FHeisbourg If the US isn't able — with its European partners — to deal with Ukraine, then America's credibility to deal with contingencies in the Indo-Pacific will be weakened. Success in Europe is a perceived condition for the success of the Indo-Pacific strategy: @FHeisbourg #ThePrintOTC

@FHeisbourg We don’t know whether Mr Trump will come back or not. He doesn’t seem to have positive-sum ideas about how to run American foreign policy, says defence and geopolitical expert François Heisbourg @FHeisbourg at #ThePrintOTC

@FHeisbourg He [Emmanuel Macron] is a remarkable, unusual individual. Unusual vis-a-vis the usual French political class, says defence and geopolitical expert François Heisbourg @FHeisbourg at #ThePrintOTC

@FHeisbourg The green targets of the EU and the UK — to speed up the shift from hydrocarbon sources of energy to renewables — will leave Russia with stranded assets in 10-20 years time, says defence analyst François Heisbourg @FHeisbourg at #ThePrintOTC

@FHeisbourg Russian factories that produce battle tanks are very clearly handicapped. This has led to a fantastic situation where…after three months of war, the country with manpower & material issues is Russia rather than Ukraine, says François Heisbourg @FHeisbourg at #ThePrintOTC

@FHeisbourg Once the war began, only 25% of Fins wanted to join NATO because for the last 70 yrs, relations with Russia & Soviet Union was quite well managed. Now, it's 85%. Even the most effective politician in the world couldn't have produced such an awesome swing: @FHeisbourg #ThePrintOTC

@FHeisbourg For some Americans — and there were statements by [US Secretary of Defence] Lloyd Austin — there is a sense of wanting to settle definitive scores with Russia...President Biden is clearly torn on this issue, says defence analyst François Heisbourg @FHeisbourg at #ThePrintOTC

@FHeisbourg Would Erdogan overplay his cards? I doubt it. He has proven, in the case of Ukraine, to be quite cunning and keeping bridges open with both sides. Both sides continue to see Turkey as possibly the best conduit for eventual negotiations: François Heisbourg @FHeisbourg #ThePrintOTC

@FHeisbourg Putin knows…that nuclear deterrence is an entirely mutual affair and may not be worth the destruction of Russia just to retain the Donbas region. For me, the threat level is actually lower on that score than it was at the very beginning of the conflict: @FHeisbourg #ThePrintOTC

@FHeisbourg That concludes this edition of #ThePrintOTC. Many thanks to our viewers for tuning in. We also thank our partners: @IIFLWEALTH @aubankindia @HospitalsApollo @flyspicejet